Related papers: Where the Trees Fall: Macroeconomic Forecasts for …
From 2000 to 2017, 64% of Maine's pulp and paper processing mills shut down; these closures resulted in harmful effects to communities in Maine and beyond. One question this research asks is how will key macroeconomic and related variables…
The US economy is transitioning away from fossil fuels toward sources of green energy. California policymakers have adopted the goal of carbon neutrality by 2045 or earlier. Within California, Kern County accounts for over 70 percent of oil…
A pervasive trend in economic development is the shift from agricultural to manufacturing and finally to service economies. Because the type of employment associated with each sector influences natural resource use this global trend may…
The stock market is a crucial component of the financial market, playing a vital role in wealth accumulation for investors, financing costs for listed companies, and the stable development of the national macroeconomy. Significant…
Facing the drastic climate changes, current strategies for enhancing carbon dioxide stocks need to be thoroughly honed. To address the problem, we first built a carbon sequestration growth model driven by growth rate dependency (GRDM). We…
In the face of uncertain biological response to climate change and the many critiques concerning model complexity it is increasingly important to develop predictive mechanistic frameworks that capture the dominant features of ecological…
Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health are complicated by potential interactions with…
Nyman and Ormerod (2017) show that the machine learning technique of random forests has the potential to give early warning of recessions. Applying the approach to a small set of financial variables and replicating as far as possible a…
The United States, much like other countries around the world, faces significant obstacles to achieving a rapid decarbonization of its economy. Crucially, decarbonization disproportionately affects the communities that have been…
We study the dynamic effects of fires on county labor markets in the US using a novel geophysical measure of fire exposure based on satellite imagery. We find increased fire exposure causes lower employment growth in the short and medium…
Modern macroeconomic theories were unable to foresee the last Great Recession and could neither predict its prolonged duration nor the recovery rate. They are based on supply-demand equilibria that do not exist during recessionary shocks.…
In this paper, I explored how a range of regression and machine learning techniques can be applied to monthly U.S. unemployment data to produce timely forecasts. I compared seven models: Linear Regression, SGDRegressor, Random Forest,…
Using a comprehensive sample of 2,585 bankruptcies from 1990 to 2019, we benchmark the performance of various machine learning models in predicting financial distress of publicly traded U.S. firms. We find that gradient boosted trees…
The cotton industry in the United States is committed to sustainable production practices that minimize water, land, and energy use while improving soil health and cotton output. Climate-smart agricultural technologies are being developed…
The physical and economic damages of hurricanes can acutely affect employment and the well-being of employees. However, a comprehensive understanding of these impacts remains elusive as many studies focused on narrow subsets of regions or…
This paper combines traditional panel econometrics with random forest machine learning to revisit the relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic growth for 27 transition economies over 1991-2019. Exploiting the Couharde-Grekou…
Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to 'mine' variables of interest…
Even at the beginning of 2008, the economic recession of 2008/09 was not being predicted. The failure to predict recessions is a persistent theme in economic forecasting. The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) provides data on…
To assess the impact of climate change on the Canadian economy, we investigate the relationship between seasonal climate variables and economic growth across provinces and economic sectors. We also provide projections of climate change…
Disparity in suicide rates between urban and suburban/rural areas is growing, with rural areas typically witnessing higher suicide rates in the U.S. However, previous studies often ignored the effect of socio-environmental factors on the…