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Classical and more recent tests for detecting distributional changes in multivariate time series often lack power against alternatives that involve changes in the cross-sectional dependence structure. To be able to detect such changes…
We define a copula process which describes the dependencies between arbitrarily many random variables independently of their marginal distributions. As an example, we develop a stochastic volatility model, Gaussian Copula Process Volatility…
This work proposes a novel approach to evaluate and analyze the behavior of multi-population parallel genetic algorithms (PGAs) when running on a cluster of multi-core processors. In particular, we deeply study their numerical and…
Conformal Prediction is a framework that produces prediction intervals based on the output from a machine learning algorithm. In this paper we explore the case when training data is made up of multiple parts available in different sources…
The extensive emergence of big data techniques has led to an increasing interest in the development of change-point detection algorithms that can perform well in a multivariate, possibly high-dimensional setting. In the current paper, we…
Many multivariate statistical analysis methods and their corresponding probabilistic counterparts have been adopted to develop process monitoring models in recent decades. However, the insightful connections between them have rarely been…
Conditional density estimation is complicated by multimodality, heteroscedasticity, and strong non-Gaussianity. Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a principled nonparametric framework with calibrated uncertainty, but standard GP regression is…
We propose a new modeling paradigm for large dimensional aggregates of stochastic systems by Generalized Factor Analysis (GFA) models. These models describe the data as the sum of a flocking plus an uncorrelated idiosyncratic component. The…
We present the first framework for Gaussian-process-modulated Poisson processes when the temporal data appear in the form of panel counts. Panel count data frequently arise when experimental subjects are observed only at discrete time…
A defining feature of non-stationary systems is the time dependence of their statistical parameters. Measured time series may exhibit Gaussian statistics on short time horizons, due to the central limit theorem. The sample statistics for…
This paper considers the problem of multi-sample nonparametric comparison of counting processes with panel count data, which arise naturally when recurrent events are considered. Such data frequently occur in medical follow-up studies and…
The fractional Poisson process (FPP) is a counting process with independent and identically distributed inter-event times following the Mittag-Leffler distribution. This process is very useful in several fields of applied and theoretical…
Many experiments are concerned with the comparison of counts between treatment groups. Examples include the number of successful signups in conversion rate experiments, or the number of errors produced by software versions in canary…
This work develops a Bayesian non-parametric approach to signal separation where the signals may vary according to latent variables. Our key contribution is to augment Gaussian Process Latent Variable Models (GPLVMs) for the case where each…
This paper studies the properties of the Multiply Iterated Poisson Process (MIPP), a stochastic process constructed by repeatedly time-changing a Poisson process, and its applications in ruin theory. Like standard Poisson processes, MIPPs…
Variational Gaussian process (GP) approximations have become a standard tool in fast GP inference. This technique requires a user to select variational features to increase efficiency. So far the common choices in the literature are…
Interest in multioutput kernel methods is increasing, whether under the guise of multitask learning, multisensor networks or structured output data. From the Gaussian process perspective a multioutput Mercer kernel is a covariance function…
Measurement-induced phase transitions (MIPT) give rise to novel dynamical states of quantum matter realized by balancing unitary evolution and measurements. We present large-scale numerical simulations of a trapped-ion native MIPT, argued…
The construction of synthetic complex-valued signals from real-valued observations is an important step in many time series analysis techniques. The most widely used approach is based on the Hilbert transform, which maps the real-valued…
We define generalized innovations associated with generalized error models having arbitrary distributions, that is, distributions that can be mixtures of continuous and discrete distributions. These models include stochastic volatility…