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Related papers: Probabilistic Crop Yields Forecasts With Spatio-Te…

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Climate change is posing new challenges to crop-related concerns including food insecurity, supply stability and economic planning. As one of the central challenges, crop yield prediction has become a pressing task in the machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-25 Joshua Fan , Junwen Bai , Zhiyun Li , Ariel Ortiz-Bobea , Carla P. Gomes

This paper is concerned with modeling the dependence structure of two (or more) time-series in the presence of a (possible multivariate) covariate which may include past values of the time series. We assume that the covariate influences…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-11 Natalie Neumeyer , Marek Omelka , Sarka Hudecova

Commodity price time series possess interesting features, such as heavy-tailedness, skewness, heteroskedasticity, and non-linear dependence structures. These features pose challenges for modeling and forecasting. In this work, we explore…

Applications · Statistics 2023-01-10 Sven Pappert , Antonia Arsova

Vine copulas are flexible dependence models using bivariate copulas as building blocks. If the parameters of the bivariate copulas in the vine copula depend on covariates, one obtains a conditional vine copula. We propose an extension for…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-21 David Jobst , Annette Möller , Jürgen Groß

Copulas provide an attractive approach for constructing multivariate distributions with flexible marginal distributions and different forms of dependences. Of particular importance in many areas is the possibility of explicitly forecasting…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-22 Feng Li , Yanfei Kang

Crop yield is affected by various soil and environmental parameters and can vary significantly. Therefore, a crop yield estimation model which can predict pre-harvest yield is required for food security. The study is conducted on tea forms…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-30 Nisar Ahmed , Hafiz Muhammad Shahzad Asif , Gulshan Saleem , Muhammad Usman Younus

Extreme events over large spatial domains may exhibit highly heterogeneous tail dependence characteristics, yet most existing spatial extremes models yield only one dependence class over the entire spatial domain. To accurately characterize…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-14 Muyang Shi , Likun Zhang , Mark D. Risser , Benjamin A. Shaby

We develop a unified statistical framework for attributing heatwaves as spatio-temporal phenomena under climate change. We quantify the impact of anthropogenic forcing on the probability and persistence of heatwaves not captured by standard…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-30 Kamal Gasser , Johan Segers , Francesco Ragone

Elevated levels of PM10 are known to cause severe respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, and, in extreme cases, cancer and mortality. Despite various reduction policies implemented across different sectors, PM10 concentrations in South…

Applications · Statistics 2025-03-21 Soyun Jeon , Jungsoon Choi

Simultaneous concurrence of extreme values across multiple climate variables can result in large societal and environmental impacts. Therefore, there is growing interest in understanding these concurrent extremes. In many applications, not…

Applications · Statistics 2021-03-16 Whitney K. Huang , Adam H. Monahan , Francis W. Zwiers

Agriculture plays a crucial role in the global economy and social stability, and accurate crop yield prediction is essential for rational planting planning and decision-making. This study focuses on crop yield Time-Series Data prediction.…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Yueru Yan , Yue Wang , Jialin Li , Jingwei Zhang , Xingye Mo

Joint modelling of longitudinal and time-to-event data is usually described by a joint model which uses shared or correlated latent effects to capture associations between the two processes. Under this framework, the joint distribution of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-07 Zili Zhang , Christiana Charalambous , Peter Foster

Longitudinal and survival sub-models are two building blocks for joint modelling of longitudinal and time to event data. Extensive research indicates separate analysis of these two processes could result in biased outputs due to their…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-22 Zili Zhang , Christiana Charalambous , Peter Foster

A transition to renewable energy is needed to mitigate climate change. In Europe, this transition has been led by wind energy, which is one of the fastest growing energy sources. However, energy demand and production are sensitive to…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-03-01 Paulina Tedesco , Alex Lenkoski , Hannah C. Bloomfield , Jana Sillmann

We present a vine copula based composite likelihood approach to model spatial dependencies, which allows to perform prediction at arbitrary locations. This approach combines established methods to model (spatial) dependencies. On the one…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-04 Tobias Michael Erhardt , Claudia Czado , Ulf Schepsmeier

In many studies multivariate event time data are generated from clusters having a possibly complex association pattern. Flexible models are needed to capture this dependence. Vine copulas serve this purpose. Inference methods for vine…

Applications · Statistics 2017-07-25 Nicole Barthel , Candida Geerdens , Matthias Killiches , Paul Janssen , Claudia Czado

Vine copulas are a flexible tool for multivariate non-Gaussian distributions. For data from an observational study where the explanatory variables and response variables are measured together, a proposed vine copula regression method uses…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-30 Bo Chang , Harry Joe

We propose a framework for determining whether the causal dependence of an outcome $Y$ on a covariate $X$ changes at a given time point, given confounders $\boldsymbol{Z}$. For instance, in financial markets, the effect of a market…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-08 Shakeel Gavioli-Akilagun , Kieran Wood , Francesco Quinzan

Precise crop yield prediction provides valuable information for agricultural planning and decision-making processes. However, timely predicting crop yields remains challenging as crop growth is sensitive to growing season weather variation…

A time-varying bivariate copula joint model, which models the repeatedly measured longitudinal outcome at each time point and the survival data jointly by both the random effects and time-varying bivariate copulas, is proposed in this…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-03 Zili Zhang , Christiana Charalambous , Peter Foster