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Output uncertainty indicates whether the probabilistic properties reflect objective characteristics of the model output. Unlike most loss functions and metrics in machine learning, uncertainty pertains to individual samples, but validating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Siyuan Zhang , Linbo Xie

Reliable confidence estimation is a challenging yet fundamental requirement in many risk-sensitive applications. However, modern deep neural networks are often overconfident for their incorrect predictions, i.e., misclassified samples from…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-03-06 Fei Zhu , Xu-Yao Zhang , Zhen Cheng , Cheng-Lin Liu

We address the problem of uncertainty calibration. While standard deep neural networks typically yield uncalibrated predictions, calibrated confidence scores that are representative of the true likelihood of a prediction can be achieved…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-24 Christian Tomani , Sebastian Gruber , Muhammed Ebrar Erdem , Daniel Cremers , Florian Buettner

The key factor in implementing machine learning algorithms in decision-making situations is not only the accuracy of the model but also its confidence level. The confidence level of a model in a classification problem is often given by the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-02 Masanari Kimura , Hiroki Naganuma

When model predictions inform downstream decision making, a natural question is under what conditions can the decision-makers simply respond to the predictions as if they were the true outcomes. Calibration suffices to guarantee that simple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-23 Jingwu Tang , Jiayun Wu , Zhiwei Steven Wu , Jiahao Zhang

A machine learning model is calibrated if its predicted probability for an outcome matches the observed frequency for that outcome conditional on the model prediction. This property has become increasingly important as the impact of machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Muthu Chidambaram , Rong Ge

The confidence calibration of deep learning-based perception models plays a crucial role in their reliability. Especially in the context of autonomous driving, downstream tasks like prediction and planning depend on accurate confidence…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-08-07 Mariella Dreissig , Florian Piewak , Joschka Boedecker

Many real-world optimization problems contain parameters that are unknown before deployment time, either due to stochasticity or to lack of information (e.g., demand or travel times in delivery problems). A common strategy in such cases is…

Despite the power of deep neural networks for a wide range of tasks, an overconfident prediction issue has limited their practical use in many safety-critical applications. Many recent works have been proposed to mitigate this issue, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-14 Jooyoung Moon , Jihyo Kim , Younghak Shin , Sangheum Hwang

While modern deep neural networks are performant perception modules, performance (accuracy) alone is insufficient, particularly for safety-critical robotic applications such as self-driving vehicles. Robot autonomy stacks also require these…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-09-29 Dhaivat Bhatt , Kaustubh Mani , Dishank Bansal , Krishna Murthy , Hanju Lee , Liam Paull

Calibration is crucial in deep learning applications, especially in fields like healthcare and autonomous driving, where accurate confidence estimates are vital for decision-making. However, deep neural networks often suffer from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-17 Linwei Tao , Haolan Guo , Minjing Dong , Chang Xu

Unbiased confidence estimates of neural networks are crucial especially for safety-critical applications. Many methods have been developed to calibrate biased confidence estimates. Though there is a variety of methods for classification,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-12-15 Fabian Küppers , Jan Kronenberger , Amirhossein Shantia , Anselm Haselhoff

Although deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have achieved tremendous success in audio classification tasks, their uncertainty calibration are still under-explored. A well-calibrated model should be accurate when it is certain about its prediction…

Sound · Computer Science 2022-06-28 Tong Ye , Shijing Si , Jianzong Wang , Ning Cheng , Jing Xiao

Calibrating deep neural models plays an important role in building reliable, robust AI systems in safety-critical applications. Recent work has shown that modern neural networks that possess high predictive capability are poorly calibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-16 Cheng Wang

Reliable uncertainty calibration is essential for safely deploying deep neural networks in high-stakes applications. Deep neural networks are known to exhibit systematic overconfidence, especially under distribution shifts. Although…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-12 Achim Hekler , Lukas Kuhn , Florian Buettner

Uncertainty quantification for complex deep learning models is increasingly important as these techniques see growing use in high-stakes, real-world settings. Currently, the quality of a model's uncertainty is evaluated using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-15 Benjamin Kompa , Jasper Snoek , Andrew Beam

The calibration of predictive distributions has been widely studied in deep learning, but the same cannot be said about the more specific epistemic uncertainty as produced by Deep Ensembles, Bayesian Deep Networks, or Evidential Deep…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-18 Mohammed Fellaji , Frédéric Pennerath , Brieuc Conan-Guez , Miguel Couceiro

Applications such as weather forecasting and personalized medicine demand models that output calibrated probability estimates---those representative of the true likelihood of a prediction. Most models are not calibrated out of the box but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-03 Ananya Kumar , Percy Liang , Tengyu Ma

Uncertainty estimates must be calibrated (i.e., accurate) and sharp (i.e., informative) in order to be useful. This has motivated a variety of methods for recalibration, which use held-out data to turn an uncalibrated model into a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-06 Charles Marx , Shengjia Zhao , Willie Neiswanger , Stefano Ermon

Uncertainty estimation bears the potential to make deep learning (DL) systems more reliable. Standard techniques for uncertainty estimation, however, come along with specific combinations of strengths and weaknesses, e.g., with respect to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-02 Joachim Sicking , Maram Akila , Jan David Schneider , Fabian Hüger , Peter Schlicht , Tim Wirtz , Stefan Wrobel