Related papers: Evaluation of respiratory disease hospitalisation …
Hospitalisations from COVID-19 with Omicron sub-lineages have put a sustained pressure on the English healthcare system. Understanding the expected healthcare demand enables more effective and timely planning from public health. We collect…
Scientific advice to the UK government throughout the COVID-19 pandemic has been informed by ensembles of epidemiological models provided by members of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza group on Modelling (SPI-M). Among other applications,…
Accurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease dynamics can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this…
Ensemble forecasts have become a cornerstone of large-scale disease response, underpinning decision making at agencies such as the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Their growing use reflects the goal of combining…
Epidemiological forecasting from surveillance data is a hard problem and hybridizing mechanistic compartmental models with neural models is a natural direction. The mechanistic structure helps keep trajectories epidemiologically plausible,…
Accurate forecasts of COVID-19 is central to resource management and building strategies to deal with the epidemic. We propose a heterogeneous infection rate model with human mobility for epidemic modeling, a preliminary version of which we…
Short-term forecasts of infectious disease spread are a critical component in risk evaluation and public health decision making. While different models for short-term forecasting have been developed, open questions about their relative…
Forecasting infectious disease outbreaks is hard. Forecasting emerging infectious diseases with limited historical data is even harder. In this paper, we investigate ways to improve emerging infectious disease forecasting under operational…
Accurate forecasts of disease outbreaks are critical for effective public health responses, management of healthcare surge capacity, and communication of public risk. There are a growing number of powerful forecasting methods that fall into…
As the COVID-19 spread over the globe and new variants of COVID-19 keep occurring, reliable real-time forecasts of COVID-19 hospitalizations are critical for public health decision on medical resources allocations such as ICU beds,…
The U.S. COVID-19 Forecast Hub aggregates forecasts of the short-term burden of COVID-19 in the United States from many contributing teams. We study methods for building an ensemble that combines forecasts from these teams. These…
Forecasts of the trajectory of an infectious agent can help guide public health decision making. A traditional approach to forecasting fits a computational model to structured data and generates a predictive distribution. However, human…
The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic has instigated unprecedented changes in many countries around the globe, putting a significant burden on the health sectors, affecting the macro economic conditions, and altering social interactions…
We study the reported data from the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in January - May 2020 in 119 countries. We observe that the time series of active cases in individual countries (the difference of the total number of confirmed infections and…
The COVID-19 pandemic exposed critical limitations in diagnostic workflows: RT-PCR tests suffer from slow turnaround times and high false-negative rates, while CT-based screening offers faster complementary diagnosis but requires expert…
The emergence and spread of deadly pandemics has repeatedly occurred throughout history, causing widespread infections and loss of life. The rapid spread of pandemics have made governments across the world adopt a range of actions,…
We propose a forecasting method for predicting epidemiological health series on a two-week horizon at the regional and interregional resolution. The approach is based on model order reduction of parametric compartmental models, and is…
The COVID-19 pandemic has placed forecasting models at the forefront of health policy making. Predictions of mortality and hospitalization help governments meet planning and resource allocation challenges. In this paper, we consider the…
Respiratory diseases represent one of the most significant economic burdens on healthcare systems worldwide. The variation in the increasing number of cases depends greatly on climatic seasonal effects, socioeconomic factors, and pollution.…
The COVID-19 pandemic represents the most significant public health disaster since the 1918 influenza pandemic. During pandemics such as COVID-19, timely and reliable spatio-temporal forecasting of epidemic dynamics is crucial. Deep…