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Many applications of causal inference require using treatment effects estimated on a study population to make decisions in a separate target population. We consider the challenging setting where there are covariates that are observed in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Khurram Yamin , Vibhhu Sharma , Ed Kennedy , Bryan Wilder

Applied researchers in biomedicine and related fields are often interested in estimating the causal effect of a treatment or intervention. Although randomized clinical trials are considered the gold standard for establishing causal effects,…

For randomized controlled trials to be conclusive, it is important to set the target sample size accurately at the design stage. Comparing two normal populations, the sample size calculation requires specification of the variance other than…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-04 Hirotada Maeda , Satoshi Hattori , Tim Friede

When studying treatment effects in multilevel studies, investigators commonly use (semi-)parametric estimators, which make strong parametric assumptions about the outcome, the treatment, and/or the correlation structure between study units…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-12 Chan Park , Hyunseung Kang

Causal effect estimation from observational data is an important and much studied research topic. The instrumental variable (IV) and local causal discovery (LCD) patterns are canonical examples of settings where a closed-form expression…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-19 Ioan Gabriel Bucur , Tom Claassen , Tom Heskes

It has recently become popular to define treatment effects for subsets of the target population characterized by variables not observable at the time a treatment decision is made. Characterizing and estimating such treatment effects is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-08-30 Marshall M. Joffe , Dylan Small , Chi-Yuan Hsu

Small study effects occur when smaller studies show different, often larger, treatment effects than large ones, which may threaten the validity of systematic reviews and meta-analyses. The most well-known reasons for small study effects…

One challenge of large-scale data analysis is that the assumption of an identical distribution for all samples is often not realistic. An optimal linear regression might, for example, be markedly different for distinct groups of the data.…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-02 Dominik Rothenhäusler , Nicolai Meinshausen , Peter Bühlmann

In multi-site randomized trials with many sites and few randomization units per site, an Empirical-Bayes estimator can be used to estimate the variance of the treatment effect across sites. When this estimator indicates that treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-12 Clément de Chaisemartin , Antoine Deeb

When evaluating the efficacy of social programs and medical treatments using randomized experiments, the estimated overall average causal effect alone is often of limited value and the researchers must investigate when the treatments do and…

Applications · Statistics 2013-05-27 Kosuke Imai , Marc Ratkovic

We consider after-study statistical inference for sequentially designed experiments wherein multiple units are assigned treatments for multiple time points using treatment policies that adapt over time. Our goal is to provide inference…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-10 Raaz Dwivedi , Katherine Tian , Sabina Tomkins , Predrag Klasnja , Susan Murphy , Devavrat Shah

Evaluating blocked randomized experiments from a potential outcomes perspective has two primary branches of work. The first focuses on larger blocks, with multiple treatment and control units in each block. The second focuses on matched…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-31 Nicole E. Pashley , Luke W. Miratrix

We seek to understand the probability an individual benefits from treatment (PIBT), an inestimable quantity that must be bounded in practice. Given the innate uncertainty in the population-level bounds on PIBT, we seek to better understand…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-04 Gabriel Ruiz , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

Cluster randomization trials commonly employ multiple endpoints. When a single summary of treatment effects across endpoints is of primary interest, global hypothesis testing/effect estimation methods represent a common analysis strategy.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-19 E. Davies Smith , V. Jairath , G. Zou

This paper considers conducting inference about the effect of a treatment (or exposure) on an outcome of interest. In the ideal setting where treatment is assigned randomly, under certain assumptions the treatment effect is identifiable…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-06 Amy Richardson , Michael G. Hudgens , Peter B. Gilbert , Jason P. Fine

Observational studies are frequently used to estimate the effect of an exposure or treatment on an outcome. To obtain an unbiased estimate of the treatment effect, it is crucial to measure the exposure accurately. A common type of exposure…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-02 Suhwan Bong , Kwonsang Lee , Francesca Dominici

Estimation and inference procedures for synthetic control methods often do not allow for the existence of spillover effects, which are plausible in many applications. In this paper, we consider estimation and inference for synthetic control…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-23 Jianfei Cao , Connor Dowd

Large-scale data are often characterized by some degree of inhomogeneity as data are either recorded in different time regimes or taken from multiple sources. We look at regression models and the effect of randomly changing coefficients,…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-11 Nicolai Meinshausen , Peter Bühlmann

In the social and health sciences, researchers often make causal inferences using sensitive variables. These researchers, as well as the data holders themselves, may be ethically and perhaps legally obligated to protect the confidentiality…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-28 Sharmistha Guha , Jerome P. Reiter

We propose a model-free framework for sensitivity analysis of individual treatment effects (ITEs), building upon ideas from conformal inference. For any unit, our procedure reports the $\Gamma$-value, a number which quantifies the minimum…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-26 Ying Jin , Zhimei Ren , Emmanuel J. Candès
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