Related papers: Conditional Extreme Value Estimation for Dependent…

It is well known that the distribution of extreme values of strictly stationary sequences differ from those of independent and identically distributed sequences in that extremal clustering may occur. Here we consider non-stationary but…

Max-stable random fields play a central role in modeling extreme value phenomena. We obtain an explicit formula for the conditional probability in general max-linear models, which include a large class of max-stable random fields. As a…

Asymptotic normality of extreme value tail estimators received much attention in the literature, giving rise to increasingly complicated 2nd order regularity conditions. However, such conditions are really difficult to be checked for real…

This article is devoted to the study of tail index estimation based on i.i.d. multivariate observations, drawn from a standard heavy-tailed distribution, i.e. of which 1-d Pareto-like marginals share the same tail index. A multivariate…

Extreme value theory provides an asymptotically justified framework for estimation of exceedance probabilities in regions where few or no observations are available. For multivariate tail estimation, the strength of extremal dependence is…

We account for time-varying parameters in the conditional expectile-based value at risk (EVaR) model. The EVaR downside risk is more sensitive to the magnitude of portfolio losses compared to the quantile-based value at risk (QVaR). Rather…

In this work, we consider systems that are subjected to intermittent instabilities due to external stochastic excitation. These intermittent instabilities, though rare, have a large impact on the probabilistic response of the system and…

In extreme value inference it is a fundamental problem how the target value is required to be extreme by the extreme value theory. In iid settings this study both theoretically and numerically compares tail estimators, which are based on…

We make use of the empirical process theory to approximate the adapted Hill estimator, for censored data, in terms of Gaussian processes. Then, we derive its asymptotic normality, only under the usual second-order condition of regular…

In extreme value analysis, tail behavior of a heavy-tailed data distribution is modeled by a Pareto-type distribution in which the so-called extreme value index (EVI) controls the tail behavior. For heavy-tailed data obtained from multiple…

This paper proposes a scoring-rule-based method for ranking predictive distributions in the Fr\'echet domain that is able to distinguish between different tail indices. The approach is built on normalized order statistics and exploits…

Conformal prediction has emerged as a rigorous means of providing deep learning models with reliable uncertainty estimates and safety guarantees. Yet, its performance is known to degrade under distribution shift and long-tailed class…

Extreme value analysis for time series is often based on the block maxima method, in particular for environmental applications. In the classical univariate case, the latter is based on fitting an extreme-value distribution to the sample of…

The aim of this paper is to provide models for spatial extremes in the case of stationarity. The spatial dependence at extreme levels of a stationary process is modeled using an extension of the theory of max-stable processes of de Haan and…

The analysis of extremal dependence in high dimensions has recently attracted considerable interest. Existing methodology primarily focuses on modeling and estimation of extremal dependence structures, often supported by concentration…

The masses of data now available have opened up the prospect of discovering weak signals using machine-learning algorithms, with a view to predictive or interpretation tasks. As this survey of recent results attempts to show, bringing…

This paper describes limiting behaviour of tail empirical process associated with long memory stochastic volatility models. We show that such process has dichotomous behaviour, according to an interplay between a Hurst parameter and a tail…

Preferential attachment is widely used to model power-law behavior of degree distributions in both directed and undirected networks. Practical analyses on the tail exponent of the power-law degree distribution use the Hill estimator as one…

In this paper, we give a Breiman's theorem for conditional dependent random vector, where one component has a regularly-varying-tailed distribution with the index $\alpha\ge0$ and its slowly varying function satisfies a relaxed condition,…

We use extreme value theory to estimate the probability of successive exceedances of a threshold value of a time-series of an observable on several classes of chaotic dynamical systems. The observables have either a Fr\'echet (fat-tailed)…