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Small area estimation models are essential for estimating population characteristics in regions with limited sample sizes, thereby supporting policy decisions, demographic studies, and resource allocation, among other use cases. The spatial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-20 Zhenhua Wang , Paul A. Parker , Scott H. Holan

Systematic sampling is often used to select plot locations for forest inventory estimation. However, it is not possible to derive a design-unbiased variance estimator for a systematic sample using one random start. As a result, many forest…

Applications · Statistics 2018-10-22 Chad Babcock , Andrew O. Finley , Timothy G. Gregoire , Hans-Erik Andersen

Model-assisted, two-stage forest survey sampling designs provide a means to combine airborne remote sensing data, collected in a sampling mode, with field plot data to increase the precision of national forest inventory estimates, while…

Applications · Statistics 2024-02-20 Hans-Erik Andersen , Göran Ståhl , Bruce D. Cook , Douglas C. Morton , Andrew O. Finley

Model-based small area estimation is frequently used in conjunction with survey data in order to establish estimates for under-sampled or unsampled geographies. These models can be specified at either the area-level, or the unit-level, but…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-14 Paul A. Parker , Ryan Janicki , Scott H. Holan

Subnational monitoring of public health often relies on household surveys where data are sparse at the desired spatial resolution. Small area estimation (SAE) methods address this challenge by borrowing strength across areas and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Qianyu Dong , Zehang Richard Li

Small area estimation has become an important tool in official statistics, used to construct estimates of population quantities for domains with small sample sizes. Typical area-level models function as a type of heteroscedastic regression,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-07 Paul A. Parker , Scott H. Holan , Ryan Janicki

This work develops formal statistical inference procedures for machine learning ensemble methods. Ensemble methods based on bootstrapping, such as bagging and random forests, have improved the predictive accuracy of individual trees, but…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-09-11 Lucas Mentch , Giles Hooker

We congratulate the authors for a stimulating and valuable manuscript, providing a careful review of the state-of the-art in cross-sectional and time-series benchmarking procedures for small area estimation. They develop a novel two-stage…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2014-05-27 Rebecca C. Steorts , M. Delores Ugarte

Auxiliary information is increasingly available from administrative and other data sources, but it is often incomplete and of non-probability origin. We propose a two-step small area estimation approach in which the first step relies on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-16 Donatas Šlevinskas , Ieva Burakauskaitė , Andrius Čiginas

We consider random forests and LASSO methods for model-based small area estimation when the number of areas with sampled data is a small fraction of the total areas for which estimates are required. Abundant auxiliary information is…

Small area estimation using survey data can be achieved by using either a design-based or a model-based inferential approach. Design-based direct estimators are generally preferable because of their consistency, asymptotic normality, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-13 Alana McGovern , Katherine Wilson , Jon Wakefield

When mapping subnational health and demographic indicators, direct weighted estimators of small area means based on household survey data can be unreliable when data are limited. If survey microdata are available, unit level models can…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-22 Peter A. Gao , Jon Wakefield

Regression models were evaluated to estimate stand-level growing stock volume (GSV), quadratic mean diameter (QMD), basal area (BA), and stem density (N) in the Brixen im Thale forest district of Austria. Field measurements for GSV, QMD,…

This paper proposes small area estimation methods that utilize generalized tree-based machine learning techniques to improve the estimation of disaggregated means in small areas using discrete survey data. Specifically, we present two…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-09 Nicolas Frink , Timo Schmid

Spatial two-component mixture models offer a robust framework for analyzing spatially correlated data with zero inflation. To circumvent potential biases introduced by assuming a specific distribution for the response variables, we employ a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-17 Chung-Wei Shen , Bu-Ren Hsu , Chia-Ming Hsu , Chun-Shu Chen

Traditional forest inventory systems, originally designed to quantify merchantable timber volume, often lack the spatial resolution and structural detail required for modern multi-resource ecosystem management. In this manuscript, we…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-13 Maxime Turgeon , Michael Kieser , Dwight Wolfe , Bruce MacArthur

We propose an approximate hierarchical Bayes approach that uses the Natural Exponential Family with Quadratic Variance Function in combining information from multiple sources to improve traditional survey estimates of finite population…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-25 Soumojit Das , Partha Lahiri

Have you ever wondered how your feature space is impacting the prediction of a specific sample in your dataset? In this paper, we introduce Single Sample Feature Importance (SSFI), which is an interpretable feature importance algorithm that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-28 Joseph Gatto , Ravi Lanka , Yumi Iwashita , Adrian Stoica

The Fay-Herriot (FH) model is widely used in small area estimation and uses auxiliary information to reduce estimation variance at undersampled locations. We extend the type of covariate information used in the FH model to include…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-12 Aaron T. Porter , Scott H. Holan , Christopher K. Wikle , Noel Cressie

Accurate estimates of subnational health and demographic indicators are critical for informing health policy decisions. Many countries collect relevant data using complex household surveys, but when data are limited, direct survey weighted…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-07 Peter A. Gao , Jon Wakefield