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It is widely known that Google Trends have become one of the most popular free tools used by forecasters both in academics and in the private and public sectors. There are many papers, from several different fields, concluding that Google…
Web search data are a valuable source of business and economic information. Previous studies have utilized Google Trends web search data for economic forecasting. We expand this work by providing algorithms to combine and aggregate search…
Among other macroeconomic indicators, the monthly release of U.S. unemployment rate figures in the Employment Situation report by the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics gets a lot of media attention and strongly affects the stock markets. I…
In recent years, the availability of larger amounts of energy data and advanced machine learning algorithms has created a surge in building energy prediction research. However, one of the variables in energy prediction models, occupant…
The forecasting of political, economic, and public health indicators using internet activity has demonstrated mixed results. For example, while some measures of explicitly surveyed public opinion correlate well with social media proxies,…
Google Trends reports how frequently specific queries are searched on Google over time. It is widely used in research and industry to gain early insights into public interest. However, its data generation mechanism introduces missing…
We check the claims that data from Google Trends contain enough data to predict future financial index returns. We first discuss the many subtle (and less subtle) biases that may affect the backtest of a trading strategy, particularly when…
Obtaining an accurate picture of the current state of the economy is particularly important to central banks and finance ministries, and of epidemics to health ministries. There is increasing interest in the use of search engine data to…
Using non-linear machine learning methods and a proper backtest procedure, we critically examine the claim that Google Trends can predict future price returns. We first review the many potential biases that may influence backtests with this…
Economies are instances of complex socio-technical systems that are shaped by the interactions of large numbers of individuals. The individual behavior and decision-making of consumer agents is determined by complex psychological dynamics…
Tourism data is one of the strategic data in Indonesia. In addition, tourism is one of the ten priority programs of national development planning in Indonesia. BPS-Statistics Indonesia has collected data related to tourism demand in…
Alternative data sets are widely used for macroeconomic nowcasting together with machine learning--based tools. The latter are often applied without a complete picture of their theoretical nowcasting properties. Against this background,…
The digital revolution has led to the digitization of human behavior, creating unprecedented opportunities to understand observable actions on an unmatched scale. Emerging phenomena such as crowdfunding and crowdsourcing have further…
E-commerce web applications are almost ubiquitous in our day to day life, however as useful as they are, most of them have little to no adaptation to user needs, which in turn can cause both lower conversion rates as well as unsatisfied…
Accurate real-time tracking of influenza outbreaks helps public health officials make timely and meaningful decisions that could save lives. We propose an influenza tracking model, ARGO (AutoRegression with GOogle search data), that uses…
This paper aims to explore the application of machine learning in forecasting Chinese macroeconomic variables. Specifically, it employs various machine learning models to predict the quarterly real GDP growth of China, and analyzes the…
A success factor for modern companies in the age of Digital Marketing is to understand how customers think and behave based on their online shopping patterns. While the conventional method of gathering consumer insights through…
Analyzing fashion trends is essential in the fashion industry. Current fashion forecasting firms, such as WGSN, utilize the visual information from around the world to analyze and predict fashion trends. However, analyzing fashion trends is…
As more tech companies engage in rigorous economic analyses, we are confronted with a data problem: in-house papers cannot be replicated due to use of sensitive, proprietary, or private data. Readers are left to assume that the obscured…
Online activity of the Internet users has been repeatedly shown to provide a rich information set for various research fields. We focus on the job-related searches on Google and their possible usefulness in the region of the Visegrad Group…