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We develop an accurate simulation-based inference framework for high-mass ($\gtrsim\!10^7 \rm{M_\odot}$) black-hole binaries observable by LISA. The method is implemented within the DINGO gravitational-wave parameter-estimation code,…

The field of gravitational wave (GW) detection is progressing rapidly, with several next-generation observatories on the horizon, including LISA. GW data is challenging to analyze due to highly variable signals shaped by source properties…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-10-17 Maria-Catalina Isfan , Laurentiu-Ioan Caramete , Ana Caramete , Daniel Tonoiu , Alexandru Nicolin-Żaczek

LISA data analysis represents one of the most challenging tasks ahead for the future of gravitational-wave (GW) astronomy. Characterizing the instrument's noise properties while fitting for all the other detectable sources is a key…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-10-21 Alessandro Santini , Martina Muratore , Jonathan Gair , Olaf Hartwig

The forthcoming space-based gravitational wave observatory LISA will open a new window for the measurement of galactic binaries, which will deliver unprecedented information about these systems. However, the detection of galactic binary…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2021-11-24 Aurore Blelly , Jérôme Bobin , Hervé Moutarde

Active learning methods for neural networks are usually based on greedy criteria which ultimately give a single new design point for the evaluation. Such an approach requires either some heuristics to sample a batch of design points at one…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-28 Evgenii Tsymbalov , Sergei Makarychev , Alexander Shapeev , Maxim Panov

We combine amortized neural posterior estimation with importance sampling for fast and accurate gravitational-wave inference. We first generate a rapid proposal for the Bayesian posterior using neural networks, and then attach importance…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2023-05-31 Maximilian Dax , Stephen R. Green , Jonathan Gair , Michael Pürrer , Jonas Wildberger , Jakob H. Macke , Alessandra Buonanno , Bernhard Schölkopf

We reconsider a nonparametric density model based on Gaussian processes. By augmenting the model with latent P\'olya--Gamma random variables and a latent marked Poisson process we obtain a new likelihood which is conjugate to the model's…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-30 Christian Donner , Manfred Opper

We introduce a novel adaptive Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) methodology for efficient construction of surrogate models for Bayesian inverse problems with expensive forward model evaluations. An adaptive design strategy focuses on…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-05-01 Paolo Villani , Jörg Unger , Martin Weiser

Folding uncertainty in theoretical models into Bayesian parameter estimation is necessary in order to make reliable inferences. A general means of achieving this is by marginalizing over model uncertainty using a prior distribution…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2016-03-04 Christopher J. Moore , Christopher P. L. Berry , Alvin J. K. Chua , Jonathan R. Gair

We present a Monte Carlo simulation for the response of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) to the galactic gravitational wave background. The simulated data streams are used to estimate the number and type of binary systems that…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2009-11-11 Seth E. Timpano , Louis J. Rubbo , Neil J. Cornish

Finding a stochastic gravitational-wave background (SGWB) of astrophysical or primordial origin is one of the quests of current and future gravitational-wave observatories. While detector networks such as LIGO-Virgo-Kagra or pulsar timing…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2023-07-04 Quentin Baghi , Nikolaos Karnesis , Jean-Baptiste Bayle , Marc Besançon , Henri Inchauspé

Resolving individual gravitational waves from tens of millions of double white dwarf (DWD) binaries in the Milky Way is a challenge for future space-based gravitational wave detection programs. By using previous data to define the priors…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2023-09-13 Pin Gao , Xi-Long Fan , Zhou-Jian Cao , Xue-Hao Zhang

Approximations are commonly employed in realistic applications of scientific Bayesian inference, often due to convenience if not necessity. In the field of gravitational-wave (GW) data analysis, fast-to-evaluate but approximate waveform…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2024-04-03 Ruiting Mao , Jeong Eun Lee , Ollie Burke , Alvin J. K. Chua , Matthew C. Edwards , Renate Meyer

The LIGO and Virgo gravitational-wave observatories have detected many exciting events over the past five years. As the rate of detections grows with detector sensitivity, this poses a growing computational challenge for data analysis. With…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2020-08-11 Stephen R. Green , Jonathan Gair

The properties of black-hole and neutron-star binaries are extracted from gravitational-wave signals using Bayesian inference. This involves evaluating a multi-dimensional posterior probability function with stochastic sampling. The…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2021-09-29 Virginia D'Emilio , Rhys Green , Vivien Raymond

Gravitational-wave (GW) parameter estimation typically assumes that instrumental noise is Gaussian and stationary. Obvious departures from this idealization are typically handled on a case-by-case basis, e.g., through bespoke procedures to…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-04-15 Ronan Legin , Maximiliano Isi , Kaze W. K. Wong , Yashar Hezaveh , Laurence Perreault-Levasseur

The stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) contains a wealth of information on astrophysical and cosmological processes. A major challenge of upcoming years will be to extract the information contained in this background and to…

The LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA catalog has been analyzed with an abundance of different population models due to theoretical uncertainty in the formation of gravitational-wave sources. To expedite model exploration, we introduce an efficient and…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-06-30 Matthew Mould , Noah E. Wolfe , Salvatore Vitale

Extracting gravitational wave (GW) signals from individual Galactic binaries (GBs) against their self-generated confusion noise is a key data analysis challenge for space-borne detectors operating in the $\approx 0.1$ mHz to $\approx 10$…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2022-11-30 Xue-Hao Zhang , Shao-Dong Zhao , Soumya D. Mohanty , Yu-Xiao Liu

The performance of Gaussian Process (GP) regression is often hampered by the curse of dimensionality, which inflates computational cost and reduces predictive power in high-dimensional problems. Variable selection is thus crucial for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-24 Minshen Xu , Shiwei Lan , Lulu Kang