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Precise modelling of a signal in processes with multiple observables, exhibiting a complex dependency on the underlying parameters, is often a difficult and challenging task. Predicting the results of experimental measurements in…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2025-12-16 Nikita Belyaev , Rostislav Konoplich , Kirill Prokofiev

Bayesian methods are particularly effective for addressing inverse problems due to their ability to manage uncertainties inherent in the inference process. However, employing these methods with costly forward models poses significant…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-10-30 G. Robalo Rei , C. P. Schmidt , J. Nitzler , M. Dinkel , W. A. Wall

In recent years, machine learning has witnessed extensive adoption across various sectors, yet its application in medical image-based disease detection and diagnosis remains challenging due to distribution shifts in real-world data. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-13 Masoumeh Javanbakhat , Md Tasnimul Hasan , Cristoph Lippert

This paper provides a comprehensive tutorial for Bayesian practitioners in pharmacometrics using Pumas workflows. We start by giving a brief motivation of Bayesian inference for pharmacometrics highlighting limitations in existing software…

A high level of physical detail in a molecular model improves its ability to perform high accuracy simulations, but can also significantly affect its complexity and computational cost. In some situations, it is worthwhile to add additional…

Computational Physics · Physics 2021-09-15 Owen C. Madin , Simon Boothroyd , Richard A. Messerly , John D. Chodera , Josh Fass , Michael R. Shirts

Bayesian learning is built on an assumption that the model space contains a true reflection of the data generating mechanism. This assumption is problematic, particularly in complex data environments. Here we present a Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-05 S. P. Lyddon , S. G. Walker , C. C. Holmes

Complex simulator-based models are now routinely used to perform inference across the sciences and engineering, but existing inference methods are often unable to account for outliers and other extreme values in data which occur due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-18 Ayush Bharti , Charita Dellaporta , Yuga Hikida , François-Xavier Briol

Monte Carlo sampling has become a major vehicle for approximate inference in Bayesian networks. In this paper, we investigate a family of related simulation approaches, known collectively as quasi-Monte Carlo methods based on deterministic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-18 Jian Cheng , Marek J. Druzdzel

Data transformations are essential for broad applicability of parametric regression models. However, for Bayesian analysis, joint inference of the transformation and model parameters typically involves restrictive parametric transformations…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-29 Daniel R. Kowal , Bohan Wu

The universal tendency in scanning probe microscopy (SPM) over the last two decades is to transition from simple 2D imaging to complex detection and spectroscopic imaging modes. The emergence of complex SPM engines brings forth the…

Machine learning models have emerged as a very effective strategy to sidestep time-consuming electronic-structure calculations, enabling accurate simulations of greater size, time scale and complexity. Given the interpolative nature of…

In many problems of data-driven modeling for dynamical systems, the governing equations are not known a priori and must be selected phenomenologically from a large set of candidate interactions and basis functions. In such situations, point…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-14 Shuhei Kashiwamura , Yusuke Kato , Hiroshi Kori , Masato Okada

Engineering simulations using boundary-value partial differential equations often implicitly assume that the uncertainty in the location of the boundary has a negligible impact on the output of the simulation. In this work, we develop a…

Tissues and Organs · Quantitative Biology 2024-06-11 S. Gerry Gralton , Farah Alkhatib , Ben Zwick , George Bourantas , Adam Wittek , Karol Miller

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) offer a principled and natural framework for proper uncertainty quantification in the context of deep learning. They address the typical challenges associated with conventional deep learning methods, such as…

Computation · Statistics 2024-11-13 Zahra Moslemi , Yang Meng , Shiwei Lan , Babak Shahbaba

Quality by design in pharmaceutical manufacturing hinges on computational methods and tools that are capable of accurate quantitative prediction of the design space. This paper investigates Bayesian approaches to design space…

We propose an analytical solution to the on-off problem within the framework of Bayesian statistics. Both the statistical significance for the discovery of new phenomena and credible intervals on model parameters are presented in a…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2016-04-20 Dalibor Nosek , Jana Nosková

The prediction of crack initiation and propagation in ductile failure processes are challenging tasks for the design and fabrication of metallic materials and structures on a large scale. Numerical aspects of ductile failure dictate a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-04-23 Nima Noii , Amirreza Khodadadian , Jacinto Ulloa , Fadi Aldakheel , Thomas Wick , Stijn Francois , Peter Wriggers

We consider geothermal inverse problems and uncertainty quantification from a Bayesian perspective. Our main goal is to make standard, `out-of-the-box' Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling more feasible for complex simulation models by…

The quantification of myocardial perfusion MRI has the potential to provide a fast, automated and user-independent assessment of myocardial ischaemia. However, due to the relatively high noise level and low temporal resolution of the…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-07-30 Cian M. Scannell , Piet van den Bosch , Amedeo Chiribiri , Jack Lee , Marcel Breeuwer , Mitko Veta

Exponential random graph models (ERGMs) are a widely used framework for network data, enabling hypothesis testing on the structural mechanisms underlying observed networks. Bayesian ERGMs provide principled uncertainty quantification and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Alberto Caimo , Isabella Gollini