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We consider the problem of estimating states and parameters in a model based on a system of coupled stochastic differential equations, based on noisy discrete-time data. Special attention is given to nonlinear dynamics and state-dependent…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-01 Uffe Høgsbro Thygesen , Kasper Kristensen

This work is devoted to the investigation of the most probable transition time between metastable states for stochastic dynamical systems. Such a system is modeled by a stochastic differential equation with non-vanishing Brownian noise, and…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2021-08-11 Yuanfei Huang , Ying Chao , Wei Wei , Jinqiao Duan

We propose threshold diffusion processes as unique solutions to stochastic differential equations with step-function coefficients, and obtain explicit expressions for the conditional Laplace transform of the hitting times and the potential…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-26 Lina Ji , Chuyang Li , Xiaowen Zhou

The rate of strong convergence is investigated for an approximation scheme for a class of stochastic differential equations driven by a time-changed Brownian motion, where the random time changes $(E_t)_{t\ge 0}$ considered include the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-02 Sixian Jin , Kei Kobayashi

Transition probabilities for stochastic systems can be expressed in terms of a functional integral over paths taken by the system. Evaluating the integral by the saddle point method in the weak-noise limit leads to a remarkable mapping…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-12-25 S P Fitzgerald , T J W Honour

Hybrid stochastic differential equations are a useful tool to model continuously varying stochastic systems which are modulated by a random environment that may depend on the system state itself. In this paper, we establish the pathwise…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-11-04 Hansjoerg Albrecher , Oscar Peralta

We address a class of backward stochastic differential equations on a bounded interval, where the driving noise is a marked, or multivariate, point process. Assuming that the jump times are totally inaccessible and a technical condition…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-06-28 Fulvia Confortola , Marco Fuhrman , Jean Jacod

Optimal state estimation for linear discrete-time systems is considered. Motivated by the literature on differential privacy, the measurements are assumed to be corrupted by Laplace noise. The optimal least mean square error estimate of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-09-02 Farhad Farokhi , Jezdimir Milosevic , Henrik Sandberg

Gradient optimization algorithms using epochs, that is those based on stochastic gradient descent without replacement (SGDo), are predominantly used to train machine learning models in practice. However, the mathematical theory of SGDo and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-05 Stefan Perko

In this paper, we present a Longstaff-Schwartz-type algorithm for optimal stopping time problems based on the Brownian motion filtration. The algorithm is based on Le\~ao, Ohashi and Russo and, in contrast to previous works, our methodology…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-12-05 Sérgio C. Bezerra , Alberto Ohashi , Francesco Russo , Francys de Souza

Many complex real world phenomena exhibit abrupt, intermittent or jumping behaviors, which are more suitable to be described by stochastic differential equations under non-Gaussian L\'evy noise. Among these complex phenomena, the most…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-09-15 Wei Wei , Ting Gao , Jinqiao Duan , Xiaoli Chen

We study pathwise approximation of scalar stochastic differential equations at a single point. We provide the exact rate of convergence of the minimal errors that can be achieved by arbitrary numerical methods that are based (in a…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Thomas Muller-Gronbach

In this paper we develop a perturbation method to predict the rate of occurrence of rare events for singularly perturbed stochastic systems using a probability density function approach. In contrast to a stochastic normal form approach, we…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-06-16 Christoffer R. Heckman , Ira B. Schwartz

This article addresses the weak convergence of numerical methods for Brownian dynamics. Typical analyses of numerical methods for stochastic differential equations focus on properties such as the weak order which estimates the asymptotic…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-06-18 B. Leimkuhler , C. Matthews , M. V. Tretyakov

We study the stochastic $p$-Laplace system in a bounded domain. We propose two new space-time discretizations based on the approximation of time-averaged values. We establish linear convergence in space and $1/2$ convergence in time.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-05-19 Lars Diening , Martina Hofmanová , Jörn Wichmann

Stochastic dynamical systems allow modelling of transitions induced by disturbances, in particular from an attracting equilibrium and crossing the stable manifold of a saddle. In the small-noise limit, the probability of such transitions is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-09-05 Jiayao Shao , Tobias Grafke , Robert S. MacKay

In this paper we study the reachability problem for discrete-time nonlinear stochastic systems. Our goal is to present a unified framework for calculating the probabilistic reachable set of discrete-time systems in the presence of both…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-09-17 Zishun Liu , Saber Jafarpour , Yongxin Chen

We present a new method to sample conditioned trajectories of a system evolving under Langevin dynamics, based on Brownian bridges. The trajectories are conditioned to end at a certain point (or in a certain region) in space. The bridge…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2022-08-17 Patrice Koehl , Henri Orland

State-space models provide an important body of techniques for analyzing time-series, but their use requires estimating unobserved states. The optimal estimate of the state is its conditional expectation given the observation histories, and…

We consider two particles performing continuous-time nearest neighbor random walk on $\mathbb Z$ and interacting with each other when they are at neighboring positions. Typical examples are two particles in the partial exclusion process or…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-12-08 Gioia Carinci , Cristian Giardina , Frank Redig
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