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Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms represent a suite of robust computational methodologies utilized for state estimation and parameter inference within dynamical systems, particularly in real-time or online environments where data…

In the last decade, sequential Monte-Carlo methods (SMC) emerged as a key tool in computational statistics. These algorithms approximate a sequence of distributions by a sequence of weighted empirical measures associated to a weighted…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 R. Douc , France E. Moulines

We propose a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method to efficiently and accurately compute cut-Bayesian posterior quantities of interest, variations of standard Bayesian approaches constructed primarily to account for model misspecification. We…

Computation · Statistics 2024-11-13 Joseph Mathews , Giri Gopalan , James Gattiker , Sean Smith , Devin Francom

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling is computationally expensive, especially for complex models. Alternative methods make simplifying assumptions about the posterior to reduce computational burden, but their impact on predictive…

Computation · Statistics 2025-10-27 Florian D. van Leeuwen , Sara van Erp

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are a popular technique in Bayesian statistical modeling. They have long been used to obtain samples from posterior distributions, but recent research has focused on the scalability of these…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-02-02 Nicholas A. Johnson , Frank O. Kuehnel , Ali Nasiri Amini

Parameter estimation for discretely observed Markov processes is a challenging problem. However, simulation of Markov processes is straightforward using the Gillespie algorithm. We exploit this ease of simulation to develop an effective…

Computation · Statistics 2014-04-17 Peter Neal

Bayesian data analysis is widely used across many disciplines, and representative examples in materials science include spectral analysis and sparse modeling. In such applications, the underlying models often become complex and yield…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-03-04 Tomohiro Nabika , Kenji Nagata , Shun Katakami , Masaichiro Mizumaki , Masato Okada

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), or particle filtering, is a popular class of methods for sampling from an intractable target distribution using a sequence of simpler intermediate distributions. Like other importance sampling-based methods,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-11-18 Shixiang Gu , Zoubin Ghahramani , Richard E. Turner

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods offer a principled approach to Bayesian uncertainty quantification but are traditionally limited by the need for full-batch gradient evaluations. We introduce a scalable variant by incorporating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-20 Andrew Millard , Zheng Zhao , Joshua Murphy , Simon Maskell

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-02 Julien Demange-Chryst , François Bachoc , Jérôme Morio

Adaptive causal representation learning from observational data is presented, integrated with an efficient sample splitting technique within the semiparametric estimating equation framework. The support points sample splitting (SPSS), a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-25 Lynda Aouar , Han Yu

The identification of parameters in mathematical models using noisy observations is a common task in uncertainty quantification. We employ the framework of Bayesian inversion: we combine monitoring and observational data with prior…

Computation · Statistics 2018-05-11 Jonas Latz , Iason Papaioannou , Elisabeth Ullmann

We consider the problem of high-dimensional filtering of state-space models (SSMs) at discrete times. This problem is particularly challenging as analytical solutions are typically not available and many numerical approximation methods can…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-13 Hamza Ruzayqat , Aimad Er-Raiy , Alexandros Beskos , Dan Crisan , Ajay Jasra , Nikolas Kantas

Investing efficiently in future research to improve policy decisions is an important goal. Expected Value of Sample Information (EVSI) can be used to select the specific design and sample size of a proposed study by assessing the benefit of…

We show how the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm can be applied exactly for the fitting of mixtures of general multivariate skew t (MST) distributions, eliminating the need for computationally expensive Monte Carlo estimation. Finite…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-09-06 S. X. Lee , G. J. McLachlan

Bayesian model selection enables comparison and ranking of conceptual subsurface models described by spatial prior models, according to the support provided by available geophysical data. Deep generative neural networks can efficiently…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-05-19 M. Amaya , N. Linde , E. Laloy

We propose a novel alternative approach to our previous work (Ben Hammouda et al., 2023) to improve the efficiency of Monte Carlo (MC) estimators for rare event probabilities for stochastic reaction networks (SRNs). In the same spirit of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-03-12 Chiheb Ben Hammouda , Nadhir Ben Rached , Raúl Tempone , Sophia Wiechert

Many scientific and engineering problems require to perform Bayesian inferences in function spaces, in which the unknowns are of infinite dimension. In such problems, many standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms become arbitrary…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-04-12 Zhe Feng , Jinglai Li

We consider the problem of inference in discrete probabilistic models, that is, distributions over subsets of a finite ground set. These encompass a range of well-known models in machine learning, such as determinantal point processes and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-10 Alkis Gotovos , Hamed Hassani , Andreas Krause , Stefanie Jegelka

Intractable posterior distributions of parameters with intractable normalizing constants depending upon the parameters are known as doubly intractable posterior distributions. The terminology itself indicates that obtaining Bayesian…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-16 Sourabh Bhattacharya