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In this paper we discuss the possibility of using multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods for weak approximation schemes. It turns out that by means of a simple coupling between consecutive time discretisation levels, one can achieve the same…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-10-07 Denis Belomestny , Tigran Nagapetyan

Self-learning Monte Carlo (SLMC) method is a general algorithm to speedup MC simulations. Its efficiency has been demonstrated in various systems by introducing an effective model to propose global moves in the configuration space. In this…

Strongly Correlated Electrons · Physics 2018-06-06 Huitao Shen , Junwei Liu , Liang Fu

Many dynamic decision problems, such as robotic control, involve a series of tasks, many of which are unknown at training time. Typical approaches for these problems, such as multi-task and meta reinforcement learning, do not generalize…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Luise Ge , Michael Lanier , Anindya Sarkar , Bengisu Guresti , Chongjie Zhang , Yevgeniy Vorobeychik

We present an algorithm for learning mixtures of Markov chains and Markov decision processes (MDPs) from short unlabeled trajectories. Specifically, our method handles mixtures of Markov chains with optional control input by going through a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-07 Chinmaya Kausik , Kevin Tan , Ambuj Tewari

In this paper, we propose a new stochastic optimization algorithm for Bayesian inference based on multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods. In Bayesian statistics, biased estimators of the model evidence have been often used as stochastic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-26 Kei Ishikawa , Takashi Goda

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling is an important and commonly used tool for the analysis of hierarchical models. Nevertheless, practitioners generally have two options for MCMC: utilize existing software that generates a black-box…

We investigate the problem of synthesizing optimal control policies for Markov decision processes (MDPs) with both qualitative and quantitative objectives. Specifically, our goal is to achieve a given linear temporal logic (LTL) task with…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-04-08 Yu Chen , Shaoyuan Li , Xiang Yin

We present a general framework for applying machine-learning algorithms to the verification of Markov decision processes (MDPs). The primary goal of these techniques is to improve performance by avoiding an exhaustive exploration of the…

Robust Markov decision processes (MDPs) address the challenge of model uncertainty by optimizing the worst-case performance over an uncertainty set of MDPs. In this paper, we focus on the robust average-reward MDPs under the model-free…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-19 Yue Wang , Alvaro Velasquez , George Atia , Ashley Prater-Bennette , Shaofeng Zou

We propose a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm based on Gibbs sampling with parallel tempering to solve nonlinear optimal control problems. The algorithm is applicable to nonlinear systems with dynamics that can be approximately…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-07-10 João Hespanha , Kerem Camsari

This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), thereby yielding a multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) which has provably superior asymptotic cost to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-08-31 Alexey Chernov , Haakon Hoel , Kody Law , Fabio Nobile , Raul Tempone

Deep networks have enabled reinforcement learning to scale to more complex and challenging domains, but these methods typically require large quantities of training data. An alternative is to use sample-efficient episodic control methods:…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-22 Marta Sarrico , Kai Arulkumaran , Andrea Agostinelli , Pierre Richemond , Anil Anthony Bharath

Performing numerical integration when the integrand itself cannot be evaluated point-wise is a challenging task that arises in statistical analysis, notably in Bayesian inference for models with intractable likelihood functions. Markov…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-17 Lawrence Middleton , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet , Pierre E. Jacob

Stochastic PDE eigenvalue problems are useful models for quantifying the uncertainty in several applications from the physical sciences and engineering, e.g., structural vibration analysis, the criticality of a nuclear reactor or photonic…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-10-07 Alexander D. Gilbert , Robert Scheichl

Restricted Boltzmann Machines are simple and powerful generative models that can encode any complex dataset. Despite all their advantages, in practice the trainings are often unstable and it is difficult to assess their quality because the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-16 Nicolas Béreux , Aurélien Decelle , Cyril Furtlehner , Beatriz Seoane

Interval Markov decision processes (IMDPs) generalise classical MDPs by having interval-valued transition probabilities. They provide a powerful modelling tool for probabilistic systems with an additional variation or uncertainty that…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-07-07 Ernst Moritz Hahn , Vahid Hashemi , Holger Hermanns , Morteza Lahijanian , Andrea Turrini

In this article we consider Bayesian estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. This problem features several obstacles to…

Computation · Statistics 2025-04-23 Ajay Jasra , Amin Wu

Nested Monte Carlo is widely used for risk estimation, but its efficiency is limited by the discontinuity of the indicator function and high computational cost. This paper proposes a nested Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method combined with…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-04-06 Yu Xu , Xiaoqun Wang

We develop a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that exploits a hierarchy of models of increasing complexity to efficiently generate samples from an unnormalized target distribution. Broadly, the method rewrites the Multilevel…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-05 Mikkel B. Lykkegaard , Tim J. Dodwell , Colin Fox , Grigorios Mingas , Robert Scheichl

Constructing unbiased estimators from Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) outputs is a difficult problem that has recently received a lot of attention in the statistics and machine learning communities. However, the current unbiased MCMC…

Computation · Statistics 2022-12-27 Guanyang Wang , Tianze Wang