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We consider estimation of the target population average treatment effect (TATE) when outcome information is unavailable. Instead, we observe the outcome in multiple source populations and wish to combine the treatment effects therein to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-16 Zehao Su , Helene Charlotte Rytgaard , Henrik Ravn , Frank Eriksson

Understanding the impact of treatment effect over time is a fundamental aspect of many scientific and medical studies. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach under a continuous-time reinforcement learning framework for testing a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Jiuchen Zhang , Annie Qu

Background: Randomized controlled trials are often used to inform policy and practice for broad populations. The average treatment effect (ATE) for a target population, however, may be different from the ATE observed in a trial if there are…

The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is the best measure of individual causal effects given baseline covariates. However, the CATE only captures the (conditional) average, and can overlook risks and tail events, which are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-05 Nathan Kallus , Miruna Oprescu

We consider estimating average treatment effects (ATE) of a binary treatment in observational data when data-driven variable selection is needed to select relevant covariates from a moderately large number of available covariates…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-27 David Cheng , Abhishek Chakrabortty , Ashwin N. Ananthakrishnan , Tianxi Cai

Most of the widely used estimators of the average treatment effect (ATE) in causal inference rely on the assumptions of unconfoundedness and overlap. Unconfoundedness requires that the observed covariates account for all correlations…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-01 Yang Cai , Alkis Kalavasis , Katerina Mamali , Anay Mehrotra , Manolis Zampetakis

Matching and weighting methods for observational studies involve the choice of an estimand, the causal effect with reference to a specific target population. Commonly used estimands include the average treatment effect in the treated (ATT),…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-12 Noah Greifer , Elizabeth A. Stuart

We consider the problem of estimating the effects of a binary treatment on a continuous outcome of interest from observational data in the absence of confounding by unmeasured factors. We provide a new estimator of the population average…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-04 James Robins , Mariela Sued , Quanhong Lei-Gomez , Andrea Rotnitzky

Estimation and inference for the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is a cornerstone of causal inference and often serves as the foundation for developing procedures for more complicated settings. Although traditionally analyzed in a batch…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-10 Ojash Neopane , Aaditya Ramdas , Aarti Singh

When considering the effect a treatment will cause in a population of interest, we often look to evidence from randomized controlled trials. In settings where multiple trials on a treatment are available, we may wish to synthesize the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-08 Nicole Schnitzler , Eloise Kaizar

The paper proposes an estimator to make inference of heterogeneous treatment effects sorted by impact groups (GATES) for non-randomised experiments. The groups can be understood as a broader aggregation of the conditional average treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-03-30 Daniel Jacob

This study designs an adaptive experiment for efficiently estimating average treatment effects (ATEs). In each round of our adaptive experiment, an experimenter sequentially samples an experimental unit, assigns a treatment, and observes…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-21 Masahiro Kato , Akihiro Oga , Wataru Komatsubara , Ryo Inokuchi

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-11 Steve Yadlowsky , Hongseok Namkoong , Sanjay Basu , John Duchi , Lu Tian

While randomized trials may be the gold standard for evaluating the effectiveness of the treatment intervention, in some special circumstances, single-arm clinical trials utilizing external control may be considered. The causal treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-26 Huan Wang , Fei Wu , Yeh-Fong Chen

A high-quality experimental dataset is often much smaller than a corresponding observational dataset. When this holds with possibly biased measurements of the outcome of interest in the latter, we propose an estimation and inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-19 Harrison H Li

Randomized experiments are an excellent tool for estimating internally valid causal effects with the sample at hand, but their external validity is frequently debated. While classical results on the estimation of Population Average…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-13 Apoorva Lal , Wenjing Zheng , Simon Ejdemyr

Randomized trials are viewed as the benchmark for assessing causal effects of treatments on outcomes of interest. Nonetheless, challenges such as measurement error can undermine the standard causal assumptions for randomized trials. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-27 Dane Isenberg , Nandita Mitra , Steven C. Marcus , Rinad S. Beidas , Kristin A. Linn

Estimating the conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is very important in causal inference and has a wide range of applications across many fields. In the estimation process of CATE, the unconfoundedness assumption is typically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-16 Pengfei Shi , Wei Zhong , Xinyu Zhang , Ningtao Wang , Xing Fu , Weiqiang Wang , Yin Jin

Meta-analysis is commonly used to combine results from multiple clinical trials, but traditional meta-analysis methods do not refer explicitly to a population of individuals to whom the results apply and it is not clear how to use their…

Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Under the standard IV model, however, the average treatment effect (ATE) is only partially identifiable. To address this,…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-08 Linbo Wang , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen