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Estimating the unknown number of classes in a population has numerous important applications. In a Poisson mixture model, the problem is reduced to estimating the odds that a class is undetected in a sample. The discontinuity of the odds…
Confidence intervals for a binomial parameter or for the ratio of Poisson means are commonly desired in high energy physics (HEP) applications such as measuring a detection efficiency or branching ratio. Due to the discreteness of the data,…
We present improved numerical approximations to the exact Poissonian confidence limits for small numbers n of observed events following the approach of Gehrels (1986). Analytic descriptions of all parameters used in the approximations are…
In this manuscript we review two methods to construct exact confidence bounds for an unknown real parameter in a general class of discrete statistical models. These models include the binomial family, the Poisson family as well as…
A famous conjecture of Littlewood (c. 1930) concerns approximating two real numbers by rationals of the same denominator, multiplying the errors. In a lesser-known paper, Wang and Yu (1981) established an asymptotic formula for the number…
We use Stein's method to obtain bounds on the rate of convergence for a class of statistics in geometric probability obtained as a sum of contributions from Poisson points which are exponentially stabilizing, i.e. locally determined in a…
For the measurement of $N_s$ signals in $N$ events rigorous confidence bounds on the true signal probability $p_{\rm exact}$ were established in a classical paper by Clopper and Pearson [Biometrica 26, 404 (1934)]. Here, their bounds are…
A key challenge for deploying deep neural networks (DNNs) in safety critical settings is the need to provide rigorous ways to quantify their uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a novel algorithm for constructing predicted classification…
In Natural Language Processing (NLP), binary classification algorithms are often evaluated using the F1 score. Because the sample F1 score is an estimate of the population F1 score, it is not sufficient to report the sample F1 score without…
In this paper, we develop a local limit theorem for the Student distribution. We use it to improve the normal approximation of the Student survival function given in Shafiei & Saberali (2015) and to derive asymptotic bounds for the…
One aspect of Poisson approximation is that the support of the random variable of interest is often finite while the support of the Poisson distribution is not. In this paper we will remedy this by examining truncated negative binomial (of…
One of the difficulties in calculating the capacity of certain Poisson channels is that H(lambda), the entropy of the Poisson distribution with mean lambda, is not available in a simple form. In this work we derive upper and lower bounds…
In the setting where we have $n$ independent observations of a random variable $X$, we derive explicit error bounds in total variation distance when approximating the number of observations equal to the maximum of the sample (in the case…
This work develops algorithms for non-parametric confidence regions for samples from a univariate distribution whose support is a discrete mesh bounded on the left. We generalize the theory of Learned-Miller to preorders over the sample…
Computing the probability of evidence even with known error bounds is NP-hard. In this paper we address this hard problem by settling on an easier problem. We propose an approximation which provides high confidence lower bounds on…
We consider a type of nonnormal approximation of infinitely divisible distributions that incorporates compound Poisson, Gamma, and normal distributions. The approximation relies on achieving higher orders of cumulant matching, to obtain…
The seminal result of Johnson and Lindenstrauss on random embeddings has been intensively studied in applied and theoretical computer science. Despite that vast body of literature, we still lack of complete understanding of statistical…
In this paper we establish lower bounds on information divergence from a distribution to certain important classes of distributions as Gaussian, exponential, Gamma, Poisson, geometric, and binomial. These lower bounds are tight and for…
We present deviation bounds for self-normalized averages and applications to estimation with a random number of observations. The results rely on a peeling argument in exponential martingale techniques that represents an alternative to the…
We present and study approximate notions of dimensional and margin complexity, which correspond to the minimal dimension or norm of an embedding required to approximate, rather then exactly represent, a given hypothesis class. We show that…