Related papers: Fast and Accurate Emulation of Complex Dynamic Sim…
Physical systems can often be described via a continuous-time dynamical system. In practice, the true system is often unknown and has to be learned from measurement data. Since data is typically collected in discrete time, e.g. by sensors,…
A Gaussian process (GP)-based methodology is proposed to emulate complex dynamical computer models (or simulators). The method relies on emulating the numerical flow map of the system over an initial (short) time step, where the flow map is…
Scalable surrogate models enable efficient emulation of computer models (or simulators), particularly when dealing with large ensembles of runs. While Gaussian process (GP) models are commonly employed for emulation, they face limitations…
In many real-world applications we are interested in approximating costly functions that are analytically unknown, e.g. complex computer codes. An emulator provides a fast approximation of such functions relying on a limited number of…
Gaussian process (GP) emulators have become essential tools for approximating complex simulators, significantly reducing computational demands in optimization, sensitivity analysis, and model calibration. While traditional GP emulators…
Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) provide a rich class of models that can better represent functions with varying regimes or sharp changes, compared to conventional GPs. In this work, we propose a novel inference method for DGPs for computer…
The dynamic emulation of non-linear deterministic computer codes where the output is a time series, possibly multivariate, is examined. Such computer models simulate the evolution of some real-world phenomenon over time, for example models…
The recent accelerated growth in the computing power has generated popularization of experimentation with dynamic computer models in various physical and engineering applications. Despite the extensive statistical research in computer…
In applied sciences, we often deal with deterministic simulation models that are too slow for simulation-intensive tasks such as calibration or real-time control. In this paper, an emulator for a generic dynamic model, given by a system of…
Learning uncertain dynamics models using Gaussian process~(GP) regression has been demonstrated to enable high-performance and safety-aware control strategies for challenging real-world applications. Yet, for computational tractability,…
Quantifying uncertainties in physical or engineering systems often requires a large number of simulations of the underlying computer models that are computationally intensive. Emulators or surrogate models are often used to accelerate the…
Fitting a theoretical model to experimental data in a Bayesian manner using Markov chain Monte Carlo typically requires one to evaluate the model thousands (or millions) of times. When the model is a slow-to-compute physics simulation,…
Gaussian stochastic process emulation is a powerful tool for approximating computationally intensive computer models. However, estimation of parameters in the GaSP emulator is a challenging task. No closed-form estimator is available, and…
Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) compose GP layers to warp inputs, enabling improved emulation of computer models with nonstationary input-output behavior compared with ordinary GPs. In contrast to GPs, the predictive uncertainty for DGP…
Gaussian process (GP) models are widely used to emulate propagation uncertainty in computer experiments. GP emulation sits comfortably within an analytically tractable Bayesian framework. Apart from propagating uncertainty of the input…
The ability of Gaussian processes (GPs) to predict the behavior of dynamical systems as a more sample-efficient alternative to parametric models seems promising for real-world robotics research. However, the computational complexity of GPs…
The graphics processing unit (GPU) has emerged as a powerful and cost effective processor for general performance computing. GPUs are capable of an order of magnitude more floating-point operations per second as compared to modern central…
Established techniques for simulation and prediction with Gaussian process (GP) dynamics often implicitly make use of an independence assumption on successive function evaluations of the dynamics model. This can result in significant error…
Credible forecasting and representation learning of dynamical systems are of ever-increasing importance for reliable decision-making. To that end, we propose a family of Gaussian processes (GP) for dynamical systems with linear…
The Dynamical Graph Grammar (DGG) formalism can describe complex system dynamics with graphs that are mapped into a master equation. An exact stochastic simulation algorithm may be used, but it is slow for large systems. To overcome this…