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Satellite conjunctions involving "near misses" of space objects are becoming increasingly likely. One approach to risk analysis for them involves the computation of the collision probability, but this has been regarded as having some…

Applications · Statistics 2022-03-11 Soumaya Elkantassi , Anthony Davison

Over the last quarter-century, spacecraft conjunction assessment has focused on a quantity associated by its advocates with collision probability. This quantity has a well-known dilution feature, where it is small when uncertainty is large,…

Applications · Statistics 2025-04-01 J. Russell Carpenter , Anthony C. Davison , Soumaya Elkantassi , Matthew D. Hejduk

Satellite conjunction analysis is the assessment of collision risk during a close encounter between a satellite and another object in orbit. A counterintuitive phenomenon has emerged in the conjunction analysis literature, namely,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-25 Michael S. Balch , Ryan Martin , Scott Ferson

The proliferation of space debris in LEO has become a major concern for the space industry. With the growing interest in space exploration, the prediction of potential collisions between objects in orbit has become a crucial issue. It is…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2024-12-11 Ricardo Ferreira , Cláudia Soares , Marta Guimarães

The amount of debris in orbit has increased significantly over the years. With the recent growth of interest in space exploration, conjunction assessment has become a central issue. One important metric to evaluate conjunction risk is the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-02-04 Ricardo N. Ferreira , Marta Guimarães , Cláudia Soares

The risk of collision between resident space objects has significantly increased in recent years. As a result, spacecraft collision avoidance procedures have become an essential part of satellite operations. To ensure safe and effective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-17 Marta Guimarães , Cláudia Soares , Chiara Manfletti

Estimating the probability of collision between spacecraft is crucial for risk management and collision-avoidance strategies. Current methods often rely on Gaussian assumptions and simplifications, which can be inaccurate in highly…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-04-22 Théo Verhelst , Giacomo Acciarini , Dario Izzo , Francesco Biscani

A method is developed to calculate collision probability in this paper. Based on the encounter geometric features of space objects, it is reasonable to separate the radial orbital motions from that in the cross section for most encounter…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-18 Xiaoli Xu , Yongqing Xiong

This paper presents an analytical model for collision probability assessments between de-orbiting or injecting space objects and satellite constellations. Considering the first to be subjected to a continuous tangential acceleration, its…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-05-15 Eduardo Maria Polli , Juan Luis Gonzalo , Camilla Colombo

Over 34,000 objects bigger than 10 cm in length are known to orbit Earth. Among them, only a small percentage are active satellites, while the rest of the population is made of dead satellites, rocket bodies, and debris that pose a…

Current approaches for collision avoidance and space traffic management face many challenges, mainly due to the continuous increase in the number of objects in orbit and the lack of scalable and automated solutions. To avoid catastrophic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-17 Marta Guimarães , Cláudia Soares , Chiara Manfletti

Space is becoming more crowded in Low Earth Orbit due to increased space activity. Such a dense space environment increases the risk of collisions between space objects endangering the whole space population. Therefore, the need to consider…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-20 João Simões Catulo , Cláudia Soares , Marta Guimarães

This Engineering Note addresses the challenge of estimating the probability of collision for tethered spacecraft during close encounters with other space objects. Standard probability of collision methods, based on spherical hard-body…

Spacecraft collision avoidance procedures have become an essential part of satellite operations. Complex and constantly updated estimates of the collision risk between orbiting objects inform the various operators who can then plan risk…

The exponential increase in orbital debris and active satellites will lead to congested orbits, necessitating more frequent collision avoidance maneuvers by satellites. To minimize fuel consumption while ensuring the safety of satellites,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-12-24 Kanghyun Ryu , Jean-Baptiste Bouvier , Shazaib Lalani , Siegfried Eggl , Negar Mehr

Aerodynamic collision avoidance manoeuvres provide an opportunity for satellites in Low Earth Orbits to reduce the risk during close encounters. With rising numbers of satellites and objects in orbit, satellites experience close encounters…

Space Physics · Physics 2023-06-28 F. Turco , C. Traub , S. Gaißer , J. Burgdorf , S. Klinkner , S. Fasoulas

Real-time safety systems are crucial components of intelligent vehicles. This paper introduces a prediction-based collision risk assessment approach on highways. Given a point mass vehicle dynamics system, a stochastic forward reachable set…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-05-04 Xinwei Wang , Zirui Li , Javier Alonso-Mora , Meng Wang

The probability that two satellites overlap in space at a specified instant of time is called their instantaneous collision probability. Assuming Gaussian uncertainties and spherical satellites, this probability is the integral of a…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-05-24 Jason Bernstein

The core aspects and latest developments of Manoeuvre Intelligence for Space Safety (MISS), a new software tool for collision avoidance analysis and design, are presented. The tool leverages analytical and semi-analytical methods for the…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2020-10-19 Juan Luis Gonzalo , Camilla Colombo , Pierluigi Di Lizia

Intelligent devices for supporting persons with vision impairment are becoming more widespread, but they are lacking behind the advancements in intelligent driver assistant system. To make a first step forward, this work discusses the…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-06-23 Amine Tourki , Paul Prevel , Nils Einecke , Tim Puphal , Alexandre Alahi
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