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Testing whether a variable of interest affects the outcome is one of the most fundamental problem in statistics and is often the main scientific question of interest. To tackle this problem, the conditional randomization test (CRT) is…
In clinical trials, response-adaptive randomization (RAR) has the appealing ability to assign more subjects to better-performing treatments based on interim results. The traditional RAR strategy alters the randomization ratio on a…
Treatment effect heterogeneity refers to the systematic variation in treatment effects across subgroups. There is an increasing need for clinical trials that aim to investigate treatment effect heterogeneity and estimate subgroup-specific…
Group sequential designs in clinical trials allow for interim efficacy and futility monitoring. Adjustment for baseline covariates can increase power and precision of estimated effects. However, inconsistently applying covariate adjustment…
Most Bayesian response-adaptive designs unbalance randomization rates towards the most promising arms with the goal of increasing the number of positive treatment outcomes during the study, even though the primary aim of the trial is…
Clinical trials are an instrument for making informed decisions based on evidence from well-designed experiments. Here we consider adaptive designs mainly from the perspective of multi-arm Phase II clinical trials, in which one or more…
Aims: Combinations of treatments can offer additional benefit over the treatments individually. However, trials of these combinations are lower priority than the development of novel therapies, which can restrict funding, timelines and…
The e-value is gaining traction as a robust alternative to p-values and Bayes factors for quantifying statistical evidence. e-values are a promising method for adaptive clinical trials due to their anytime-validity: e-values ensure type I…
We propose a restricted win probability estimand for comparing treatments in a randomized trial with a time-to-event outcome. We also propose Bayesian estimators for this summary measure as well as the unrestricted win probability. Bayesian…
This paper studies inference in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) with covariate-adaptive randomization (CAR) and imperfect compliance of a binary treatment. In this context, we study inference on the LATE. As in Bugni et al. (2018,2019),…
External controls from historical trials or observational data can augment randomized controlled trials when large-scale randomization is impractical or unethical, such as in drug evaluation for rare diseases. However, non-randomized…
The dynamics of molecules are governed by rare event transitions between long-lived (metastable) states. To explore these transitions efficiently, many enhanced sampling protocols have been introduced that involve using simulations with…
In recent times, products have become increasingly complex and highly reliable, so failures typically occur after long periods of operation under normal conditions and may arise from multiple causes. This paper employs simple step-stress…
Background: Advanced adaptive randomised clinical trials are increasingly used. Compared to their conventional counterparts, their flexibility may make them more efficient, increase the probability of obtaining conclusive results without…
Multi armed bandit (MAB) algorithms have been increasingly used to complement or integrate with A/B tests and randomized clinical trials in e-commerce, healthcare, and policymaking. Recent developments incorporate possible delayed feedback.…
Free energy calculations based on atomistic Hamiltonians provide microscopic insight into the thermodynamic driving forces of biophysical or condensed matter systems. Many approaches use intermediate Hamiltonians interpolating between the…
Adaptive clinical trials rely on interim analyses, flexible stopping, and data-dependent design modifications that complicate statistical guarantees when fixed-horizon test statistics are repeatedly inspected or reused after adaptations.…
Restricted mean survival time (RMST) offers a compelling nonparametric alternative to hazard ratios for right-censored time-to-event data, particularly when the proportional hazards assumption is violated. By capturing the total event-free…
The sequential multiple assignment randomized trial (SMART) is the gold standard trial design to generate data for the evaluation of multi-stage treatment regimes. As with conventional (single-stage) randomized clinical trials, interim…
The analysis of platform trials can be enhanced by utilizing non-concurrent controls. Since including this data might also introduce bias in the treatment effect estimators if time trends are present, methods for incorporating…