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Related papers: Causal Bayesian Optimization with Unknown Graphs

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This paper studies the problem of globally optimizing a variable of interest that is part of a causal model in which a sequence of interventions can be performed. This problem arises in biology, operational research, communications and,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-27 Virginia Aglietti , Xiaoyu Lu , Andrei Paleyes , Javier González

In decision-making problems, the outcome of an intervention often depends on the causal relationships between system components and is highly costly to evaluate. In such settings, causal Bayesian optimization (CBO) can exploit the causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-21 Shriya Bhatija , Paul-David Zuercher , Jakob Thumm , Thomas Bohné

We study the problem of globally optimising a target variable of an unknown causal graph on which a sequence of soft or hard interventions can be performed. The problem of optimising the target variable associated with a causal graph is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-06 Sumantrak Mukherjee , Mengyan Zhang , Seth Flaxman , Sebastian Josef Vollmer

We propose constrained causal Bayesian optimization (cCBO), an approach for finding interventions in a known causal graph that optimize a target variable under some constraints. cCBO first reduces the search space by exploiting the graph…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-14 Virginia Aglietti , Alan Malek , Ira Ktena , Silvia Chiappa

How should we intervene on an unknown structural equation model to maximize a downstream variable of interest? This setting, also known as causal Bayesian optimization (CBO), has important applications in medicine, ecology, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-13 Scott Sussex , Anastasiia Makarova , Andreas Krause

We propose functional causal Bayesian optimization (fCBO), a method for finding interventions that optimize a target variable in a known causal graph. fCBO extends the CBO family of methods to enable functional interventions, which set a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-14 Limor Gultchin , Virginia Aglietti , Alexis Bellot , Silvia Chiappa

Maximizing a target variable as an operational objective within a structural causal model is a fundamental problem. Causal Bayesian Optimization (CBO) approaches typically achieve this either by performing interventions that modify the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Shaogang Ren , Zihao Wang , Yuzhou Chen , Xiaoning Qian

We study the problem of globally optimizing the causal effect on a target variable of an unknown causal graph in which interventions can be performed. This problem arises in many areas of science including biology, operations research and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-26 Nicola Branchini , Virginia Aglietti , Neil Dhir , Theodoros Damoulas

In Causal Bayesian Optimization (CBO), an agent intervenes on an unknown structural causal model to maximize a downstream reward variable. In this paper, we consider the generalization where other agents or external events also intervene on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-02 Scott Sussex , Pier Giuseppe Sessa , Anastasiia Makarova , Andreas Krause

This paper studies the problem of performing a sequence of optimal interventions in a causal dynamical system where both the target variable of interest and the inputs evolve over time. This problem arises in a variety of domains e.g.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-27 Virginia Aglietti , Neil Dhir , Javier González , Theodoros Damoulas

Bayesian Optimization (BO) methods are useful for optimizing functions that are expen- sive to evaluate, lack an analytical expression and whose evaluations can be contaminated by noise. These methods rely on a probabilistic model of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-04 Eduardo C. Garrido-Merchán , Daniel Hernández-Lobato

We introduce a unified framework for contextual and causal Bayesian optimisation, which aims to design intervention policies maximising the expectation of a target variable. Our approach leverages both observed contextual information and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Vahan Arsenyan , Antoine Grosnit , Haitham Bou-Ammar , Arnak Dalalyan

Existing score-based methods for directed acyclic graph (DAG) learning from observational data struggle to recover the causal graph accurately and sample-efficiently. To overcome this, in this study, we propose DrBO (DAG recovery via…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-28 Bao Duong , Sunil Gupta , Thin Nguyen

Bayesian optimization is a class of data efficient model based algorithms typically focused on global optimization. We consider the more general case where a user is faced with multiple problems that each need to be optimized conditional on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-04 Michael Pearce , Janis Klaise , Matthew Groves

Contextual Bayesian Optimization (CBO) efficiently optimizes black-box functions with respect to design variables, while simultaneously integrating contextual information regarding the environment, such as experimental conditions. However,…

Gaussian process (GP) based Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful method for optimizing black-box functions efficiently. The practical performance and theoretical guarantees of this approach depend on having the correct GP hyperparameter…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-07 Huong Ha , Vu Nguyen , Hung Tran-The , Hongyu Zhang , Xiuzhen Zhang , Anton van den Hengel

Causal discovery is crucial for understanding complex systems and informing decisions. While observational data can uncover causal relationships under certain assumptions, it often falls short, making active interventions necessary. Current…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-18 Yuxuan Wang , Mingzhou Liu , Xinwei Sun , Wei Wang , Yizhou Wang

Optimizing objectives under constraints, where both the objectives and constraints are black box functions, is a common scenario in real-world applications such as scientific experimental design, design of medical therapies, and industrial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-16 Fengxue Zhang , Zejie Zhu , Yuxin Chen

Discovering optimal designs through sequential data collection is essential in many real-world applications. While Bayesian Optimization (BO) has achieved remarkable success in this setting, growing attention has recently turned to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-22 Chih-Yu Chang , Qiyuan Chen , Tianhan Gao , David Fenning , Chinedum Okwudire , Neil Dasgupta , Wei Lu , Raed Al Kontar

Bayesian optimization (BO) methods are useful for optimizing functions that are expensive to evaluate, lack an analytical expression and whose evaluations can be contaminated by noise. These methods rely on a probabilistic model of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-04 Eduardo C. Garrido-Merchán , Daniel Hernández-Lobato
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