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The traditional activity of model selection aims at discovering a single model superior to other candidate models. In the presence of pronounced noise, however, multiple models are often found to explain the same data equally well. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-14 Chao Zheng , Davide Ferrari , Yuhong Yang

Mixture models, such as Gaussian mixture models, are widely used in machine learning to represent complex data distributions. A key challenge, especially in high-dimensional settings, is to determine the mixture order and estimate the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-30 Srećko Đurašinović , Jean-Bernard Lasserre , Victor Magron

In this paper, we study the problem of learning one-dimensional Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) with a specific focus on estimating both the model order and the mixing distribution from independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-24 Xinyu Liu , Hai Zhang

This paper studies the Model Selection Confidence Set (MSCS) methodology for univariate time series models involving autoregressive and moving average components, and applies it to study model selection uncertainty in the Italian…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-19 Piersilvio De Bortoli , Davide Ferrari , Francesco Ravazzolo , Luca Rossini

Classical model selection seeks to find a single model within a particular class that optimizes some pre-specified criteria, such as maximizing a likelihood or minimizing a risk. More recently, there has been an increased interest in model…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-17 Ryan Cecil , Lucas Mentch

In order to cluster or partition data, we often use Expectation-and-Maximization (EM) or Variational approximation with a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), which is a parametric probability density function represented as a weighted sum of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-07-04 Ji Won Yoon

We study Bayesian estimation of finite mixture models in a general setup where the number of components is unknown and allowed to grow with the sample size. An assumption on growing number of components is a natural one as the degree of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-18 Ilsang Ohn , Lizhen Lin

Estimating the number of components is a fundamental challenge in unsupervised learning, particularly when dealing with high-dimensional data with many components or severely imbalanced component sizes. This paper addresses this challenge…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-22 Huan Qing

Determining the number G of components in a finite mixture distribution is an important and difficult inference issue. This is a most important question, because statistical inference about the resulting model is highly sensitive to the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-27 Gilles Celeux , Sylvia Fruewirth-Schnatter , Christian P. Robert

Given a universe of N assets, investors often form equally weighted portfolios (EWPs) by selecting subsets of assets. EWPs are simple, robust, and competitive out-of-sample, yet the uncertainty about which subset truly performs best is…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-20 Davide Ferrari , Alessandro Fulci , Sandra Paterlini

This paper is concerned with an important issue in finite mixture modelling, the selection of the number of mixing components. We propose a new penalized likelihood method for model selection of finite multivariate Gaussian mixture models.…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-01-17 Tao Huang , Heng Peng , Kun Zhang

Finite mixture models are a useful statistical model class for clustering and density approximation. In the Bayesian framework finite mixture models require the specification of suitable priors in addition to the data model. These priors…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-09 Bettina Grün , Gertraud Malsiner-Walli

We describe and analyze a broad class of mixture models for real-valued multivariate data in which the probability density of observations within each component of the model is represented as an arbitrary combination of basis functions.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-28 M. E. J. Newman

Finite mixture models are ubiquitous in modern statistical modeling, and a recurring practical issue is choosing the model order. In \citet[Sankhy\=a Series A, \textbf62, pp. 49--66]{keribin2000consistent}, the Bayesian information…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-03 Hien Duy Nguyen , TrungTin Nguyen

In this paper, we study the problem of learning multi-dimensional Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs), with a specific focus on model order selection and efficient mixing distribution estimation. We first establish an information-theoretic lower…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-23 Xinyu Liu , Hai Zhang

We consider estimating the parameters of a Gaussian mixture density with a given number of components best representing a given set of weighted samples. We adopt a density interpretation of the samples by viewing them as a discrete Dirac…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-03 Daniel Frisch , Uwe D. Hanebeck

In most prediction and estimation situations, scientists consider various statistical models for the same problem, and naturally want to select amongst the best. Hansen et al. (2011) provide a powerful solution to this problem by the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-23 Sebastian Arnold , Georgios Gavrilopoulos , Benedikt Schulz , Johanna Ziegel

This paper deals with Bayesian inference of a mixture of Gaussian distributions. A novel formulation of the mixture model is introduced, which includes the prior constraint that each Gaussian component is always assigned a minimal number of…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-21 Colin J. Stoneking

In the framework of Bayesian model-based clustering based on a finite mixture of Gaussian distributions, we present a joint approach to estimate the number of mixture components and identify cluster-relevant variables simultaneously as well…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-23 Gertraud Malsiner-Walli , Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter , Bettina Grün

When solving real-world problems, practitioners often hesitate to implement solutions obtained from mathematical models, especially for important decisions. This hesitation stems from practitioners' lack of trust in optimization models and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-07-01 Susumu Hashimoto , Takeaki Uno
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