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For users to trust model predictions, they need to understand model outputs, particularly their confidence - calibration aims to adjust (calibrate) models' confidence to match expected accuracy. We argue that the traditional calibration…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-10-25 Chenglei Si , Chen Zhao , Sewon Min , Jordan Boyd-Graber

In safety-critical applications data-driven models must not only be accurate but also provide reliable uncertainty estimates. This property, commonly referred to as calibration, is essential for risk-aware decision-making. In regression a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Jelke Wibbeke , Nico Schönfisch , Sebastian Rohjans , Andreas Rauh

Recently, deep neural networks have become to be used in a variety of applications. While the accuracy of deep neural networks is increasing, the confidence score, which indicates the reliability of the prediction results, is becoming more…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-20 Shohei Enomoto , Takeharu Eda

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have achieved beyond human-level accuracy in the image classification task and are widely deployed in real-world environments. However, CNNs show vulnerability to adversarial perturbations that are…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-03-09 Desheng Wang , Weidong Jin , Yunpu Wu , Aamir Khan

With model trustworthiness being crucial for sensitive real-world applications, practitioners are putting more and more focus on improving the uncertainty calibration of deep neural networks. Calibration errors are designed to quantify the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-14 Sebastian G. Gruber , Florian Buettner

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have proven to be successful in many classification tasks, outperforming previous state-of-the-art methods in terms of accuracy. However, accuracy alone is not enough for high-stakes decision making. Decision…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-04 Leonardo Teixeira , Brian Jalaian , Bruno Ribeiro

Social recommender systems are expected to improve recommendation quality by incorporating social information when there is little user-item interaction data. However, recent reports from industry show that social recommender systems…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2020-10-26 Junliang Yu , Hongzhi Yin , Jundong Li , Min Gao , Zi Huang , Lizhen Cui

Confidence calibration - the process to calibrate the output probability distribution of neural networks - is essential for safety-critical applications of such networks. Recent works verify the link between mis-calibration and overfitting.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-24 Linwei Tao , Minjing Dong , Daochang Liu , Changming Sun , Chang Xu

Trustworthiness in neural networks is crucial for their deployment in critical applications, where reliability, confidence, and uncertainty play pivotal roles in decision-making. Traditional performance metrics such as accuracy and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-05 Koffi Ismael Ouattara , Ioannis Krontiris , Theo Dimitrakos , Frank Kargl

Neural networks have proven successful at learning from complex data distributions by acting as universal function approximators. However, they are often overconfident in their predictions, which leads to inaccurate and miscalibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Jeffrey Willette , Juho Lee , Sung Ju Hwang

Calibration is crucial in deep learning applications, especially in fields like healthcare and autonomous driving, where accurate confidence estimates are vital for decision-making. However, deep neural networks often suffer from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-17 Linwei Tao , Haolan Guo , Minjing Dong , Chang Xu

Despite the success of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) in many academic benchmarks for computer vision tasks, their application in the real-world is still facing fundamental challenges. One of these open problems is the inherent lack…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-12-07 Julia Grabinski , Paul Gavrikov , Janis Keuper , Margret Keuper

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are able to achieve high classification accuracy on many important real world datasets, but provide no rigorous notion of predictive uncertainty. Quantifying the confidence of GNN models is difficult due to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-10 Jase Clarkson

Traditional classification algorithms assume that training and test data come from similar distributions. This assumption is violated in adversarial settings, where malicious actors modify instances to evade detection. A number of custom…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2016-11-29 Bo Li , Yevgeniy Vorobeychik , Xinyun Chen

Data-sparse settings such as robotic manipulation, molecular physics, and galaxy morphology classification are some of the hardest domains for deep learning. For these problems, equivariant networks can help improve modeling across…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Edward Berman , Jacob Ginesin , Marco Pacini , Robin Walters

Miscalibration - a mismatch between a model's confidence and its correctness - of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) makes their predictions hard to rely on. Ideally, we want networks to be accurate, calibrated and confident. We show that, as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-27 Jishnu Mukhoti , Viveka Kulharia , Amartya Sanyal , Stuart Golodetz , Philip H. S. Torr , Puneet K. Dokania

In this study, we rediscovered the framework of generative adversarial networks (GANs) as a solver for calibration problems without data correspondence. When data correspondence is not present or loosely established, the calibration problem…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-08-13 Ilkwon Hong , Junhyoung Ha

Although Gaussian processes (GPs) with deep kernels have been successfully used for meta-learning in regression tasks, its uncertainty estimation performance can be poor. We propose a meta-learning method for calibrating deep kernel GPs for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-14 Tomoharu Iwata , Atsutoshi Kumagai

Uncertainty calibration is crucial for various machine learning applications, yet it remains challenging. Many models exhibit hallucinations - confident yet inaccurate responses - due to miscalibrated confidence. Here, we show that the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-28 Jeonghwan Cheon , Se-Bum Paik

Machine-learning models demand periodic updates to improve their average accuracy, exploiting novel architectures and additional data. However, a newly updated model may commit mistakes the previous model did not make. Such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-30 Daniele Angioni , Luca Demetrio , Maura Pintor , Luca Oneto , Davide Anguita , Battista Biggio , Fabio Roli