Related papers: Non-Bayesian Learning in Misspecified Models
We consider Bayesian optimization of an expensive-to-evaluate black-box objective function, where we also have access to cheaper approximations of the objective. In general, such approximations arise in applications such as reinforcement…
We consider estimation under model misspecification where there is a model mismatch between the underlying system, which generates the data, and the model used during estimation. We propose a model misspecification framework which enables a…
We provide a general solution to a fundamental open problem in Bayesian inference, namely poor uncertainty quantification, from a frequency standpoint, of Bayesian methods in misspecified models. While existing solutions are based on…
Bayesian models are a powerful tool for studying complex data, allowing the analyst to encode rich hierarchical dependencies and leverage prior information. Most importantly, they facilitate a complete characterization of uncertainty…
Decisions based partly or solely on predictions from probabilistic models may be sensitive to model misspecification. Statisticians are taught from an early stage that "all models are wrong", but little formal guidance exists on how to…
Model selection is of fundamental importance to high dimensional modeling featured in many contemporary applications. Classical principles of model selection include the Kullback-Leibler divergence principle and the Bayesian principle,…
We introduce implicit Bayesian neural networks, a simple and scalable approach for uncertainty representation in deep learning. Standard Bayesian approach to deep learning requires the impractical inference of the posterior distribution…
Models of updating a set of priors either do not allow a decision maker to make inference about her priors (full bayesian updating or FB) or require an extreme degree of selection (maximum likelihood updating or ML). I characterize a…
Bias is known to be an impediment to fair decisions in many domains such as human resources, the public sector, health care etc. Recently, hope has been expressed that the use of machine learning methods for taking such decisions would…
In industrial machine learning pipelines, data often arrive in parts. Particularly in the case of deep neural networks, it may be too expensive to train the model from scratch each time, so one would rather use a previously learned model…
We analyze the behavior of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) when the model generating the simulated data differs from the actual data generating process; i.e., when the data simulator in ABC is misspecified. We demonstrate both…
We put forward an adaptive alpha (Type I Error) that decreases as the information grows, for hypothesis tests in which nested linear models are compared. A less elaborate adaptation was already presented in \citet{PP2014} for comparing…
Mislabeled, duplicated, or biased data in real-world scenarios can lead to prolonged training and even hinder model convergence. Traditional solutions prioritizing easy or hard samples lack the flexibility to handle such a variety…
We explore the notion of uncertainty in the context of modern abstractive summarization models, using the tools of Bayesian Deep Learning. Our approach approximates Bayesian inference by first extending state-of-the-art summarization models…
Biases in the dataset often enable the model to achieve high performance on in-distribution data, while poorly performing on out-of-distribution data. To mitigate the detrimental effect of the bias on the networks, previous works have…
The willingness to trust predictions formulated by automatic algorithms is key in a vast number of domains. However, a vast number of deep architectures are only able to formulate predictions without an associated uncertainty. In this…
Accurate uncertainty estimates are important in sequential model-based decision-making tasks such as Bayesian optimization. However, these estimates can be imperfect if the data violates assumptions made by the model (e.g., Gaussianity).…
A comprehensive artificial intelligence system needs to not only perceive the environment with different `senses' (e.g., seeing and hearing) but also infer the world's conditional (or even causal) relations and corresponding uncertainty.…
Approximate Bayesian inference for neural networks is considered a robust alternative to standard training, often providing good performance on out-of-distribution data. However, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) with high-fidelity…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is one of the most popular "likelihood-free" methods. These methods have been applied in a wide range of fields by providing solutions to intractable likelihood problems in which exact Bayesian…