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Bayesian inference is a powerful tool in gravitational-wave astronomy. It enables us to deduce the properties of merging compact-object binaries and to determine how these mergers are distributed as a population according to mass, spin, and…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-06-15 Isobel M. Romero-Shaw , Eric Thrane , Paul D. Lasky

Bayesian inference is a popular approach to calibrating uncertainties, but it can underpredict such uncertainties when model misspecification is present, impacting its reliability to inform decision making. Recently, the statistics and…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-01-09 Rebekah White , Rileigh Bandy , Teresa Portone

Machine learning is a field which studies how machines can alter and adapt their behavior, improving their actions according to the information they are given. This field is subdivided into multiple areas, among which the best known are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-06 David Charte , Francisco Charte , Salvador García , Francisco Herrera

Estimating uncertainty of machine learning models is essential to assess the quality of the predictions that these models provide. However, there are several factors that influence the quality of uncertainty estimates, one of which is the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-03 Yuko Kato , David M. J. Tax , Marco Loog

We overview some results on distributed learning with focus on a family of recently proposed algorithms known as non-Bayesian social learning. We consider different approaches to the distributed learning problem and its algorithmic…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-09-27 Angelia Nedić , Alex Olshevsky , César A. Uribe

In statistical classification/multiple hypothesis testing and machine learning, a model distribution estimated from the training data is usually applied to replace the unknown true distribution in the Bayes decision rule, which introduces a…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-09-24 Zijian Yang , Vahe Eminyan , Ralf Schlüter , Hermann Ney

Uncertainty-aware machine learners, such as Bayesian neural networks, output a quantification of uncertainty instead of a point prediction. We provide uncertainty-aware learners with a principled framework to characterize, and identify ways…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-01 Sabina J. Sloman , Michele Caprio , Samuel Kaski

Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-27 Tim Pearce , Felix Leibfried , Alexandra Brintrup , Mohamed Zaki , Andy Neely

Understanding and interpreting how machine learning (ML) models make decisions have been a big challenge. While recent research has proposed various technical approaches to provide some clues as to how an ML model makes individual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-09 Wenbo Guo , Sui Huang , Yunzhe Tao , Xinyu Xing , Lin Lin

Bayesian inference for inverse problems hinges critically on the choice of priors. In the absence of specific prior information, population-level distributions can serve as effective priors for parameters of interest. With the advent of…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-02-11 Gabriel Missael Barco , Alexandre Adam , Connor Stone , Yashar Hezaveh , Laurence Perreault-Levasseur

Recently, there has been a significant focus on exploring the theoretical aspects of deep learning, especially regarding its performance in classification tasks. Bayesian deep learning has emerged as a unified probabilistic framework,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-24 The Tien Mai

Selective classification is a powerful tool for automated decision-making in high-risk scenarios, allowing classifiers to act only when confident and abstain when uncertainty is high. Given a target accuracy, our goal is to minimize…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-28 Mohamed Ndaoud , Peter Radchenko , Bradley Rava

Semi-supervised learning plays an important role in large-scale machine learning. Properly using additional unlabeled data (largely available nowadays) often can improve the machine learning accuracy. However, if the machine learning model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-05-02 Zhaocai Sun , William K. Cheung , Xiaofeng Zhang , Jun Yang

Performing optimal Bayesian design for discriminating between competing models is computationally intensive as it involves estimating posterior model probabilities for thousands of simulated datasets. This issue is compounded further when…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-07 Markus Hainy , David J. Price , Olivier Restif , Christopher Drovandi

Bayesian nonparametric models offer a flexible and powerful framework for statistical model selection, enabling the adaptation of model complexity to the intricacies of diverse datasets. This survey intends to delve into the significance of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-02 Bahman Moraffah

We study generalized Bayesian inference under misspecification, i.e. when the model is 'wrong but useful'. Generalized Bayes equips the likelihood with a learning rate $\eta$. We show that for generalized linear models (GLMs),…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-01 Rianne de Heide , Alisa Kirichenko , Nishant Mehta , Peter Grünwald

We present a novel approach for training deep neural networks in a Bayesian way. Classical, i.e. non-Bayesian, deep learning has two major drawbacks both originating from the fact that network parameters are considered to be deterministic.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-11 Konstantin Posch , Jan Steinbrener , Jürgen Pilz

Given a supervised machine learning problem where the training set has been subject to a known sampling bias, how can a model be trained to fit the original dataset? We achieve this through the Bayesian inference framework by altering the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-16 Max Sklar

Despite much research targeted at enabling conventional machine learning models to continually learn tasks and data distributions sequentially without forgetting the knowledge acquired, little effort has been devoted to account for more…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-11 Sandra Servia-Rodriguez , Cecilia Mascolo , Young D. Kwon

Hierarchical probabilistic models, such as Gaussian mixture models, are widely used for unsupervised learning tasks. These models consist of observable and latent variables, which represent the observable data and the underlying…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-26 Keisuke Yamazaki