Related papers: Local Projections or VARs? A Primer for Macroecono…
Researchers now routinely use AI or other machine learning methods to estimate latent variables of economic interest, then plug-in the estimates as covariates in a regression. We show both theoretically and empirically that naively treating…
In this paper, we estimate impulse responses by local projections in high-dimensional settings. We use the desparsified (de-biased) lasso to estimate the high-dimensional local projections, while leaving the impulse response parameter of…
To infer a function value on a specific point $x$, it is essential to assign higher weights to the points closer to $x$, which is called local polynomial / multivariable regression. In many practical cases, a limited sample size may ruin…
Evaluating explanation techniques using human subjects is costly, time-consuming and can lead to subjectivity in the assessments. To evaluate the accuracy of local explanations, we require access to the true feature importance scores for a…
This paper addresses the challenges of giving a causal interpretation to vector autoregressions (VARs). I show that under independence assumptions VARs can identify average treatment effects, average causal responses, or a mix of the two,…
We provide evidence that many narrative shocks used by prominent literature are persistent. We show that the two leading methods to estimate impulse responses to an independently identified shock (local projections and distributed lag…
Vector autogressions (VARs) are widely applied when it comes to modeling and forecasting macroeconomic variables. In high dimensions, however, they are prone to overfitting. Bayesian methods, more concretely shrinkage priors, have shown to…
This paper advances the local projections (LP) method by addressing its inefficiency in high-frequency economic and financial data with volatility clustering. We incorporate a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity…
In this paper, we propose a probabilistic reduced-dimensional vector autoregressive (PredVAR) model with oblique projections. This model partitions the measurement space into a dynamic subspace and a static subspace that do not need to be…
We propose a clustered local projection (clustered LP) method to estimate impulse response functions in a class of time-varying models where parameter variation is linked to a low-dimensional matrix of observables. We show that the…
Local variable selection aims to test for the effect of covariates on an outcome within specific regions. We outline a challenge that arises in the presence of non-linear effects and model misspecification. Specifically, for common…
This paper proposes a new methodological framework for estimating inferential models with latent variables. It also introduces a new latent variable regression model called LARX: an extension of the ubiquitous autoregressive model with…
Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models are widely used to analyze the simultaneous relationships between multiple time-dependent data. Various statistical inference methods have been studied to overcome the identification problems…
We study the properties of the classical \emph{projection} method to conduct simultaneous inference about the coefficients of the structural impulse-response function and their identified set in Structural Vector Autoregressions. We show…
The vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been used to describe the dependence within and across multiple time series. This is a model for stationary time series which can be extended to allow the presence of a deterministic trend in each…
A semi-parametric, non-linear regression model in the presence of latent variables is introduced. These latent variables can correspond to unmodeled phenomena or unmeasured agents in a complex networked system. This new formulation allows…
This paper analyzes Structural Vector Autoregressions (SVARs) where identification of structural parameters holds locally but not globally. In this case there exists a set of isolated structural parameter points that are observationally…
Deeply-learned planning methods are often based on learning representations that are optimized for unrelated tasks. For example, they might be trained on reconstructing the environment. These representations are then combined with predictor…
Efron et al. (2004) introduced least angle regression (LAR) as an algorithm for linear predictions, intended as an alternative to forward selection with connections to penalized regression. However, LAR has remained somewhat of a "black…
Inference for impulse responses estimated with local projections presents interesting challenges and opportunities. Analysts typically want to assess the precision of individual estimates, explore the dynamic evolution of the response over…