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Early assessments of the spreading rate of COVID-19 were subject to significant uncertainty, as expected with limited data and difficulties in case ascertainment, but more reliable inferences can now be made. Here, we estimate from European…
Random mixing in host populations has been a convenient simplifying assumption in the study of epidemics, but neglects important differences in contact rates within and between population groups. For HIV/AIDS, the assumption of random…
To mitigate the impact of the pandemic, several measures include lockdowns, rapid vaccination programs, school closures, and economic stimulus. These interventions can have positive or unintended negative consequences. Current research to…
Background Elimination of malaria can only be achieved through removal of all vectors or complete depletion of the infectious reservoir in humans. Mechanistic models can be built to synthesize diverse observations from the field collected…
Timely and effective decision-making is critical during epidemics to reduce preventable infections and deaths. This demands integrated models that jointly capture disease dynamics, vaccine distribution, regional disparities, and behavioral…
During pandemic events, strategies such as social distancing can be fundamental to curb viral spreading. Such actions can reduce the number of simultaneous infections and mitigate the disease spreading, which is relevant to the risk of a…
Real-time vaccination following an outbreak can effectively mitigate the damage caused by an infectious disease. However, in many cases, available resources are insufficient to vaccinate the entire at-risk population, logistics result in…
We present an approach to studying and predicting the spatio-temporal progression of infectious diseases. We treat the problem by adopting a partial differential equation (PDE) version of the Susceptible, Infected, Recovered, Deceased…
This study presents a deterministic model to investigate rabies transmission dynamics, incorporating environmental effects and control strategies using optimal control theory. Qualitative and quantitative analyses reveal that the…
The role of transportation vehicles, pig movement between farms, proximity to infected premises, and feed deliveries has not been fully considered in the dissemination dynamics of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV). This has limited…
Contact tracing is an important control strategy for containing Ebola epidemics. From a theoretical perspective, explicitly incorporating contact tracing with disease dynamics presents challenges, and population level effects of contact…
Mathematical models are instrumental to forecast the spread of pathogens and to evaluate the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical measures. A plethora of optimal strategies has been recently developed to minimize either the infected peak…
Effective vaccine prioritization is critical for epidemic control, yet real outbreaks exhibit memory effects that inflate state space and make long-term prediction and optimization challenging. As a result, many strategies are tuned to…
Since December 2020, variants of COVID-19 (especially Delta and Omicron) appeared with different characteristics that influenced death and transmissibility emerged around the world. To address the novel dynamics of the disease, we propose a…
In this paper, we investigate a parabolic-ODE SIS epidemic model with no-flux boundary conditions in a heterogeneous environment. The model incorporates a saturated infection mechanism \({SI}/(m(x) + S + I)\) with \(m \geq,\,\not\equiv 0\).…
Measles is a significant source of global disease burden and child mortality. Measles vaccination through routine immunization (RI) programs in high-burden settings remains a challenge due to poor health care infrastructure and access.…
Mean-field Ring Polymer Molecular Dynamics (MF-RPMD) offers a computationally efficient method for the simulation of reaction rates in multi-level systems. Previous work has established that, to model a nonadiabatic state-to-state reaction…
In a pandemic like Covid-19, there are many countries of lower-earning cannot provide a complete locked-down within the duration of the detected case. The locked-down may result in famine throughout the region of underdeveloped countries…
We present a mathematical analysis of the early detection of Ebola virus. The propagation of the virus is analysed by using a Susceptible, Infected, Recovered (SIR) model. In order to provide useful predictions about the potential…
In this paper, we introduce a novel modeling framework for incorporating fear of infection and frustration with social distancing into disease dynamics. We show that the resulting SEIR behavior-perception model has three principal modes of…