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The 2014 Ebola outbreak in west Africa raised many questions about the control of infectious disease in an increasingly connected global society. Limited availability of contact information made contact tracing difficult or impractical in…
We consider a multi-population epidemic model with one or more (almost) isolated communities and one mobile community. Each of the isolated communities has contact within itself and, in addition, contact with the outside world but only…
Transmission rates in epidemic outbreaks may vary over time depending on the societal response. Non-pharmacological mitigation strategies such as social distancing and the adoption of protective equipment aim precisely at reducing…
We analyze an optimal control version of a simple SIR epidemiology model that includes a partially specified vaccination policy and takes into account fatigue from protracted application of social distancing measures. The model assumes…
Understanding the joint impact of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 development is important for making public health decisions that control the pandemic. Recently, we created a method in forecasting the daily…
Vaccination and outbreak monitoring are essential tools for preventing and minimizing outbreaks of infectious diseases. Targeted strategies, where the individuals most important for monitoring or preventing outbreaks are selected for…
This paper presents several simple linear vaccination-based control strategies for a SEIR (susceptible plus infected plus infectious plus removed populations) propagation disease model. The model takes into account the total population…
Using the official data and aware of the uncertain source and insufficient number of samples, we present a first and (for the moment) unique attempt to study the first two months spread of COVID-19 in Madagascar. The approach has been…
Dengue is a serious health problem in the Philippines. In 2016, the Department of Health of the country launched a dengue vaccination campaign using Dengvaxia. However, the campaign was mired with controversy and the use of Dengvaxia was…
The Ebola virus disease is a severe viral haemorrhagic fever syndrome caused by Ebola virus. This disease is transmitted by direct contact with the body fluids of an infected person and objects contaminated with virus or infected animals,…
Metapopulation epidemic models help capture the spatial dimension of infectious disease spread by dividing heterogeneous populations into separate but interconnected communities, represented by nodes in a network. In the event of an…
By equipping a previously reported dynamic causal model of COVID-19 with an isolation state, we modelled the effects of self-isolation consequent on tracking and tracing. Specifically, we included a quarantine or isolation state occupied by…
In this study, we formulate a mathematical model incorporating age specific transmission dynamics of COVID-19 to evaluate the role of vaccination and treatment strategies in reducing the size of COVID-19 burden. Initially, we establish the…
A critical question in epidemic control concerns the minimal requirements for a vaccination campaign to effectively halt a contagion process. However, control measures can inadvertently trigger resurgence dynamics, driven by a reservoir of…
This work constructs, analyzes, and simulates a new compartmental SEIR-type model for the dynamics and potential control of the current COVID-19 pandemic. The novelty in this work is two-fold. First, the population is divided according to…
This paper presents a vaccination-based control strategy for a SEIR (susceptible plus infected plus infectious plus removed populations) propagation disease model. The model takes into account the total population amounts as a refrain for…
African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious viral disease that poses a significant threat to the swine industry, requiring stringent control measures, including movement restrictions that delay pig placements, impacting business…
Despite improved control measures, Ebola remains a serious public health risk in African regions where recurrent outbreaks have been observed since the initial epidemic in 1976. Using epidemic modeling and data from two well-documented…
The COVID-19 pandemic has challenged authorities at different levels of government administration around the globe. When faced with diseases of this severity, it is useful for the authorities to have prediction tools to estimate in advance…
The novel COVID-19 pandemic is a current, major global health threat. Up till now, there is no fully approved pharmacological treatment or a vaccine. In this study, simple mathematical models were employed to examine the dynamics of…