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The United Nations (UN) issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries to 2100 in July 2015. This was done by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy from Bayesian hierarchical models, and…
While probabilistic projection methods for projecting life expectancy exist, few account for covariates related to life expectancy. Generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics have a large, immediate negative impact on the life expectancy in a country,…
Although combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) is highly effective in suppressing viral load for people with HIV (PWH), many ART agents may exacerbate central nervous system (CNS)-related adverse effects including depression. Therefore,…
Key populations at high risk of HIV infection are critical for understanding and monitoring HIV epidemics, but global estimation is hampered by sparse, uneven data. We analyze data from 199 countries for female sex workers (FSW), men who…
Retaining persons living with HIV (PLWH) in medical care is paramount to preventing new transmissions of the virus and allowing PLWH to live normal and healthy lifespans. Maintaining regular appointments with an HIV provider and taking…
The control of opportunistic infections among HIV infected individuals should be one of the major public health concerns in reducing mortality rate of individuals living with HIV/AIDS. In this study a deterministic co-infection mathematical…
A target to eliminate Human Immuno-deficiency Virus (HIV) transmission in England by 2030 was set in early 2019. Estimates of recent trends in HIV prevalence, particularly the number of people living with undiagnosed HIV, by exposure group,…
Understanding historical trends in the epidemic of HIV is important for assessing current and projecting future trends in prevalence, incidence and mortality and for evaluating the impact and cost-effectiveness of control measures. In…
With the launch of second line anti-retroviral therapy for HIV infected individuals, there has been an increased expectation on surviving period of people with HIV. We consider previously well-known models in HIV epidemiology where the…
Drug overdose deaths continue to increase in the United States for all major drug categories. Over the past two decades the total number of overdose fatalities has increased more than five-fold; since 2013 the surge in overdose rates is…
This study utilizes mathematical models to assess progress toward achieving the UNAIDS 90-90-90 and 95-95-95 targets aimed at managing and eradicating HIV/AIDS. It contrasts stochastic and deterministic models, focusing on their utility in…
The evolutionary dynamics of HIV during the chronic phase of infection is driven by the host immune response and by selective pressures exerted through drug treatment. To understand and model the evolution of HIV quantitatively, the…
A simple deterministic model is proposed to represent the basic aspects concerning the effects of different antiretroviral treatment schedules on HIV incidence and prevalence of affected populations. The model mimics current treatment…
A central challenge in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) public health policy lies in determining whether to universally expand treatment access, despite the risk of sub-optimal adherence and consequent drug resistance, or to adopt a more…
The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has developed the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) for making national estimates and short-term projections of HIV prevalence based on observed prevalence trends at antenatal…
This research explores how total mortality figures relate to age-standardized death rates within the United States, using the complete historical record of national mortality statistics. Through a detailed investigation of both all-cause…
HIV is a retrovirus that attacks the human immune system and can lead to death without proper treatment. In collaboration with the WHO and Wits University, we study how to improve the efficiency of HIV testing with the goal of eventual…
Objective: To characterize stigma dimensions, social, and related behavioral circumstances in people living with HIV(PLWHs) seeking care, using NLP methods applied to a large collection of EHR clinical notes from a large integrated health…
We propose a series of methods and models in order to explore the Global Burden of Disease Study and the provided healthy life expectancy HALE estimates from the World Health Organization WHO based on the mortality mx of a population…
We present a two-stage methodology for reconstructing Alzheimer's disease (AD) incidence over time using ensemble Kalman inversion (EKI) applied to mortality data. In the first stage, we use EKI to infer temporal trends in all-cause and…