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Longitudinal data often involve heterogeneity, sparse signals, and contamination from response outliers or high-leverage observations especially in biomedical science. Existing methods usually address only part of this problem, either…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-26 Yuyao Wang , Yu Lu , Tianni Zhang , Mengfei Ran

We study moment-based estimation with two sequentially collected variables subject to non-monotone missingness. The commonly used Missing at Random (MAR) assumption requiring all missingness mechanisms to depend on the same fully observed…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-29 Shenshen Yang

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate strong performance in math reasoning benchmarks, but their performance varies inconsistently across problems with varying levels of difficulty. This paper describes Adaptive Multi-Expert Reasoning…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Mohamed Ehab , Ali Hamdi

The inverse probability weighting approach is popular for evaluating treatment effects in observational studies, but extreme propensity scores could bias the estimator and induce excessive variance. Recently, the overlap weighting approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-22 Chao Cheng , Fan Li , Laine Thomas , Fan Li

Matching is a widely used causal inference design that aims to approximate a randomized experiment using observational data by forming matched sets of treated and control units based on similarities in their covariates. Ideally, treated…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-06 Jianan Zhu , Jeffrey Zhang , Zijian Guo , Siyu Heng

Survival outcomes are common in comparative effectiveness studies and require unique handling because they are usually incompletely observed due to right-censoring. A ``once for all'' approach for causal inference with survival outcomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-21 Shuxi Zeng , Fan Li , Liangyuan Hu , Fan Li

Estimation of the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is often carried out in 2 steps, wherein the first step, the treatment and outcome are modeled, and in the second step the predictions are inserted into the ATE estimator. In the first steps,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-21 Mehdi Rostami , Olli Saarela

The Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon rank sum test (MWWRST) is a widely used method for comparing two treatment groups in randomized control trials, particularly when dealing with highly skewed data. However, when applied to observational study data,…

Estimation of a precision matrix (i.e., inverse covariance matrix) is widely used to exploit conditional independence among continuous variables. The influence of abnormal observations is exacerbated in a high dimensional setting as the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-17 Peng Tang , Huijing Jiang , Heeyoung Kim , Xinwei Deng

In this paper, I try to tame "Basu's elephants" (data with extreme selection on observables). I propose new practical large-sample and finite-sample methods for estimating and inferring heterogeneous causal effects (under unconfoundedness)…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-01-20 Ganesh Karapakula

Estimating a causal effect from observational data can be biased if we do not control for self-selection. This selection is based on confounding variables that affect the treatment assignment and the outcome. Propensity score methods aim to…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-09-10 Daniel Jacob

With continuous outcomes, the average causal effect is typically defined using a contrast of expected potential outcomes. However, in the presence of skewed outcome data, the expectation may no longer be meaningful. In practice the typical…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-06 Daisy A. Shepherd , Benjamin R. Baer , Margarita Moreno-Betancur

When making causal inferences, post-treatment confounders complicate analyses of time-varying treatment effects. Conditioning on these variables naively to estimate marginal effects may inappropriately block causal pathways and may induce…

Applications · Statistics 2019-04-02 Xiang Zhou , Geoffrey T. Wodtke

Consider the problem of estimating average treatment effects when a large number of covariates are used to adjust for possible confounding through outcome regression and propensity score models. The conventional approach of model building…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-31 Zhiqiang Tan

Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) is a popular method for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE). However, empirical studies show that the IPTW estimators can be sensitive to the misspecification of the propensity…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-04 Jianqing Fan , Kosuke Imai , Inbeom Lee , Han Liu , Yang Ning , Xiaolin Yang

In observational studies, the propensity score plays a central role in estimating causal effects of interest. The inverse probability weighting (IPW) estimator is commonly used for this purpose. However, if the propensity score model is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-21 Shunichiro Orihara , Tomotaka Momozaki , Tomoyuki Nakagawa

Treatment-induced confounders complicate analyses of time-varying treatment effects and causal mediation. Conditioning on these variables naively to estimate marginal effects may inappropriately block causal pathways and may induce spurious…

Applications · Statistics 2018-08-24 Geoffrey T. Wodtke , Zahide Alaca , Xiang Zhou

Many epidemiologic studies forgo probability sampling and turn to nonprobability volunteer-based samples because of cost, response burden, and invasiveness of biological samples. However, finite population inference is difficult to make…

Applications · Statistics 2021-03-01 Lingxiao Wang , Richard Valliant , Yan Li

Our paper discovers a new trade-off of using regression adjustments (RAs) in causal inference under covariate-adaptive randomizations (CARs). On one hand, RAs can improve the efficiency of causal estimators by incorporating information from…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-19 Liang Jiang , Liyao Li , Ke Miao , Yichong Zhang

Propensity scores are commonly used to reduce the confounding bias in non-randomized observational studies for estimating the average treatment effect. An important assumption underlying this approach is that all confounders that are…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-02 Youfei Yu , Jiacong Du , Min Zhang , Zhenke Wu , Andrew M. Ryan , Bhramar Mukherjee