Related papers: Multivariate Self-Exciting Processes with Dependen…

We show that density models describing multiple observables with (i) hard boundaries and (ii) dependence on external parameters may be created using an auto-regressive Gaussian mixture model. The model is designed to capture how observable…

We study monotone and convex stochastic orders for processes with independent increments. Our contributions are twofold: First, we relate stochastic orders of the Poisson component to orders of their (generalized) L\'evy measures. The…

Widespread deployment of societal-scale machine learning systems necessitates a thorough understanding of the resulting long-term effects these systems have on their environment, including loss of trustworthiness, bias amplification, and…

A statistical learning approach for parametric PDEs related to Uncertainty Quantification is derived. The method is based on the minimization of an empirical risk on a selected model class and it is shown to be applicable to a broad range…

Multivariate count data are commonly encountered through high-throughput sequencing technologies in bioinformatics, text mining, or in sports analytics. Although the Poisson distribution seems a natural fit to these count data, its…

Poisson processes and one-dimensional Poisson point processes satisfy three main properties: superposition, thinning, and conditioning. The proof of the first two relies on basic estimates involving the Poisson distribution that are also…

We develop dependent hierarchical normalized random measures and apply them to dynamic topic modeling. The dependency arises via superposition, subsampling and point transition on the underlying Poisson processes of these measures. The…

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are formal models commonly used in sequential decision-making. MDPs capture the stochasticity that may arise, for instance, from imprecise actuators via probabilities in the transition function. However, in…

In this paper, we describe an explicit extension formula in sensitivity analysis regarding the Malliavin weight for jump-diffusion mean-field stochastic differential equations whose local Lipschitz drift coefficients are influenced by the…

We present the Multi-Particle-Collision (MPC) dynamics approach to simulate properties of low-dimensional systems. In particular, we illustrate the method for a simple model: a one-dimensional gas of point particles interacting through…

We cast episodic Markov decision process (MDP) planning as Bayesian inference over policies. A policy is treated as the latent variable and is assigned an unnormalized probability of optimality that is monotone in its expected return,…

We describe a procedure to introduce general dependence structures on a set of Dirichlet processes. Dependence can be in one direction to define a time series or in two directions to define spatial dependencies. More directions can also be…

In recent years, conditional copulas, that allow dependence between variables to vary according to the values of one or more covariates, have attracted increasing attention. In high dimension, vine copulas offer greater flexibility compared…

In this paper, we expand and generalize the findings presented in our previous work on the law of large numbers and the large deviation principle for Poisson processes with uniform catastrophes. We study three distinct scalings: sublinear…

Uplift modeling aims to directly model the incremental impact of a treatment on an individual response. In this work, we address the problem from a new angle and reformulate it as a Markov Decision Process (MDP). We conducted extensive…

We prove a multidimensional Poisson limit theorem in free probability, and define joint free Poisson distributions in a non-commutative probability space. We define (compound) free Poisson process explicitly, similar to the definitions of…

We study different fractional extensions of the Poisson process and generalized counting processes by introducing time-change represented by the inverse to the sums of stable and tempered stable subordinators. We state the governing…

In this paper the class of mixed renewal processes (MRPs for short) with mixing parameter a random vector from \cite{lm6z3} (enlarging Huang's \cite{hu} original class) is replaced by the strictly more comprising class of all extended MRPs…

We investigate a generalized stochastic model with the property known as mean reversion, that is, the tendency to relax towards a historical reference level. Besides this property, the dynamics is driven by multiplicative and additive…

Motivated by many application problems, we consider Markov decision processes (MDPs) with a general loss function and unknown parameters. To mitigate the epistemic uncertainty associated with unknown parameters, we take a Bayesian approach…