Related papers: Making Online Polls More Accurate: Statistical Met…
Polls posted on social media have emerged in recent years as an important tool for estimating public opinion, e.g., to gauge public support for business decisions and political candidates in national elections. Here, we examine nearly two…
While the polls have been the most trusted source for election predictions for decades, in the recent presidential election they were called inaccurate and biased. How inaccurate were the polls in this election and can social media beat the…
Social media platforms allow users to create polls to gather public opinion on diverse topics. However, we know little about what such polls are used for and how reliable they are, especially in significant contexts like elections. Focusing…
Electoral prediction from Twitter data is an appealing research topic. It seems relatively straightforward and the prevailing view is overly optimistic. This is problematic because while simple approaches are assumed to be good enough, core…
Non-probability sampling, for example in the form of online panels, has become a fast and cheap method to collect data. While reliable inference tools are available for classical probability samples, non-probability samples can yield…
Election polls play a critical role in political discussions by probing public opinion and enabling political parties to assess their performance before elections. However, traditional polling methods sometimes fail to predict election…
In the era of big data, analysts usually explore various statistical models or machine learning methods for observed data in order to facilitate scientific discoveries or gain predictive power. Whatever data and fitting procedures are…
In this paper we present a technique to couple non-traditional data with statistics based on survey data, in order to partially correct for the bias produced by non-random sample selections. All major social media platforms represent huge…
Understanding and mitigating political bias in online social media platforms are crucial tasks to combat misinformation and echo chamber effects. However, characterizing political bias temporally using computational methods presents…
Bias in online information has recently become a pressing issue, with search engines, social networks and recommendation services being accused of exhibiting some form of bias. In this vision paper, we make the case for a systematic…
Opinion polls have been the bridge between public opinion and politicians in elections. However, developing surveys to disclose people's feedback with respect to economic issues is limited, expensive, and time-consuming. In recent years,…
Today, our more-than-ever digital lives leave significant footprints in cyberspace. Large scale collections of these socially generated footprints, often known as big data, could help us to re-investigate different aspects of our social…
One major sub-domain in the subject of polling public opinion with social media data is electoral prediction. Electoral prediction utilizing social media data potentially would significantly affect campaign strategies, complementing…
With the rising participation of the common mass in social media, it is increasingly common now for policymakers/journalists to create online polls on social media to understand the political leanings of people in specific locations. The…
During deliberation processes, mediators and facilitators typically need to select a small and representative set of opinions later used to produce digestible reports for stakeholders. In online deliberation platforms, algorithmic selection…
We present novel methods for predicting the outcome of large elections. Our first algorithm uses a diffusion process to model the time uncertainty inherent in polls taken with substantial calendar time left to the election. Our second model…
We present statistical methods for big data arising from online analytical processing, where large amounts of data arrive in streams and require fast analysis without storage/access to the historical data. In particular, we develop…
This aim of this article is to explore the potential use of Wikipedia page view data for predicting electoral results. Responding to previous critiques of work using socially generated data to predict elections, which have argued that these…
The increasing data availability and imported analyzing tools from computer science and physical science have sharply changed traditional methodologies of social sciences, leading to a new branch named computational socioeconomics that…
Every day media generate large amounts of text. An unbiased view on media reports requires an understanding of the political bias of media content. Assistive technology for estimating the political bias of texts can be helpful in this…