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Time-series forecasting increasingly demands not only accurate observational predictions but also causal forecasting under interventional and counterfactual queries in multivariate systems. We present DoFlow, a flow-based generative model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-03 Dongze Wu , Feng Qiu , Yao Xie

Estimating counterfactual distributions under interventions is central to treatment risk assessment and counterfactual generation tasks. Existing approaches model the counterfactual distribution as a standalone generative target, without…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-11 Hugh Dance , Johnny Xi , Peter Orbanz , Benjamin Bloem-Reddy

Many real-world decision-making tasks require learning causal relationships between a set of variables. Traditional causal discovery methods, however, require that all variables are observed, which is often not feasible in practical…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-27 Raj Agrawal , Chandler Squires , Neha Prasad , Caroline Uhler

Understanding causal relationships between variables is fundamental across scientific disciplines. Most causal discovery algorithms rely on two key assumptions: (i) all variables are observed, and (ii) the underlying causal graph is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-26 Muralikrishnna G. Sethuraman , Faramarz Fekri

Parametric causal modelling techniques rarely provide functionality for counterfactual estimation, often at the expense of modelling complexity. Since causal estimations depend on the family of functions used to model the data, simplistic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-16 Álvaro Parafita , Jordi Vitrià

Counterfactual explanation is a form of interpretable machine learning that generates perturbations on a sample to achieve the desired outcome. The generated samples can act as instructions to guide end users on how to observe the desired…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-28 Tri Dung Duong , Qian Li , Guandong Xu

Variational autoencoders (VAEs) and other generative methods have garnered growing interest not just for their generative properties but also for the ability to dis-entangle a low-dimensional latent variable space. However, few existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-14 Sunay Bhat , Jeffrey Jiang , Omead Pooladzandi , Gregory Pottie

This article introduces a causal discovery method to learn nonlinear relationships in a directed acyclic graph with correlated Gaussian errors due to confounding. First, we derive model identifiability under the sublinear growth assumption.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-01 Chunlin Li , Xiaotong Shen , Wei Pan

Causal effect estimation from observational data is one of the essential problems in causal inference. However, most estimation methods rely on the strong assumption that all confounders are observed, which is impractical and untestable in…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-14 Yubai Yuan , Annie Qu

Graph generative models are essential across diverse scientific domains by capturing complex distributions over relational data. Among them, graph diffusion models achieve superior performance but face inefficient sampling and limited…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Yiming Qin , Manuel Madeira , Dorina Thanou , Pascal Frossard

Causal inference from observational data often assumes "ignorability," that all confounders are observed. This assumption is standard yet untestable. However, many scientific studies involve multiple causes, different variables whose…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-16 Yixin Wang , David M. Blei

Unobserved confounding is a major hurdle for causal inference from observational data. Confounders---the variables that affect both the causes and the outcome---induce spurious non-causal correlations between the two. Wang & Blei (2018)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-31 Yixin Wang , David M. Blei

Machine-learning models, which are known to accurately predict patterns from large datasets, are crucial in decision making. Consequently, counterfactual explanations-methods explaining predictions by introducing input perturbations-have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-23 Yuta Sumiya , Hayaru shouno

Causal inference is essential for data-driven decision making across domains such as business engagement, medical treatment and policy making. However, research on causal discovery has evolved separately from inference methods, preventing…

Although deep learning techniques show promising results for many neuroimaging tasks in research settings, they have not yet found widespread use in clinical scenarios. One of the reasons for this problem is that many machine learning…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-12-05 Vibujithan Vigneshwaran , Erik Ohara , Matthias Wilms , Nils Forkert

Two apparently unrelated fields -- normalizing flows and causality -- have recently received considerable attention in the machine learning community. In this work, we highlight an intrinsic correspondence between a simple family of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-25 Ilyes Khemakhem , Ricardo Pio Monti , Robert Leech , Aapo Hyvärinen

Recommender systems may be confounded by various types of confounding factors (also called confounders) that may lead to inaccurate recommendations and sacrificed recommendation performance. Current approaches to solving the problem usually…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-08-15 Shuyuan Xu , Juntao Tan , Shelby Heinecke , Jia Li , Yongfeng Zhang

Predicting potential and counterfactual outcomes from observational data is central to individualized decision-making, particularly in clinical settings where treatment choices must be tailored to each patient rather than guided solely by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-16 Dongze Wu , David I. Inouye , Yao Xie

We propose a counterfactual approach to train ``causality-aware" predictive models that are able to leverage causal information in static anticausal machine learning tasks (i.e., prediction tasks where the outcome influences the features).…

Applications · Statistics 2020-12-01 Elias Chaibub Neto

Deep learning classifiers are prone to latching onto dominant confounders present in a dataset rather than on the causal markers associated with the target class, leading to poor generalization and biased predictions. Although…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-05-16 Nima Fathi , Amar Kumar , Brennan Nichyporuk , Mohammad Havaei , Tal Arbel
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