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We propose a test of the conditional independence of random variables $X$ and~$Y$ given~$Z$ under the additional assumption that $X$ is stochastically nondecreasing in~$Z$. The well-documented hardness of testing conditional independence…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-24 Rohan Hore , Jake A. Soloff , Rina Foygel Barber , Richard J. Samworth

This paper presents a stochastic model predictive control approach for nonlinear systems subject to time-invariant probabilistic uncertainties in model parameters and initial conditions. The stochastic optimal control problem entails a cost…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-10-17 Stefan Streif , Matthias Karl , Ali Mesbah

Beyond conditional average treatment effects, treatments may impact the entire outcome distribution in covariate-dependent ways, for example, by altering the variance or tail risks for specific subpopulations. We propose a novel estimand to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-18 Saksham Jain , Alex Luedtke

This paper is concerned with the problem of conditional independence testing for discrete data. In recent years, researchers have shed new light on this fundamental problem, emphasizing finite-sample optimality. The non-asymptotic viewpoint…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-31 Ilmun Kim , Matey Neykov , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Larry Wasserman

We consider a nonparametric autoregression model under conditional heteroscedasticity with the aim to test whether the innovation distribution changes in time. To this end we develop an asymptotic expansion for the sequential empirical…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-11-07 Leonie Selk , Natalie Neumeyer

This paper proposes a nonparametric test for $m$th-degree inverse stochastic dominance which is a powerful tool for ranking distribution functions according to social welfare. We construct the test based on empirical process theory. The…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-07-18 Hongyi Jiang , Zhenting Sun , Shiyun Hu

In many real-world scenarios, interested variables are often represented as discretized values due to measurement limitations. Applying Conditional Independence (CI) tests directly to such discretized data, however, can lead to incorrect…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-06-11 Boyang Sun , Yu Yao , Xinshuai Dong , Zongfang Liu , Tongliang Liu , Yumou Qiu , Kun Zhang

This paper proposes a new test for a change point in the mean of high-dimensional data based on the spatial sign and self-normalization. The test is easy to implement with no tuning parameters, robust to heavy-tailedness and theoretically…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-07 Feiyu Jiang , Runmin Wang , Xiaofeng Shao

We describe a new approach for managing aleatoric uncertainty in the Reinforcement Learning (RL) paradigm. Instead of selecting actions according to a single statistic, we propose a distributional method based on the second-order stochastic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-08 John D. Martin , Michal Lyskawinski , Xiaohu Li , Brendan Englot

Given independent samples from two univariate distributions, the one-sided Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney statistic may be used to conduct a rank-based test of first-order stochastic dominance. We broaden the scope of applicability of such tests by…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-03 Brendan K. Beare , Jackson D. Clarke

We provide conditions for the stochastic dominance comparisons of a risk $X$ and an associated risk $X+Z$, where $Z$ represents the uncertainty due to the environment and where $X$ and $Z$ can be dependent. The comparisons depend on both…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-10 Jorge Navarro , José M. Zapata

Given samples from two non-negative random variables, we propose a family of tests for the null hypothesis that one random variable stochastically dominates the other at the second order. Test statistics are obtained as functionals of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-16 Tommaso Lando , Sirio Legramanti

We present a new finite-sample analysis of M-estimators of locations in $\mathbb{R}^d$ using the tool of the influence function. In particular, we show that the deviations of an M-estimator can be controlled thanks to its influence function…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-23 Timothée Mathieu

Data-driven predictive control methods based on the Willems' fundamental lemma have shown great success in recent years. These approaches use receding horizon predictive control with nonparametric data-driven predictors instead of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-12-06 Mingzhou Yin , Andrea Iannelli , Roy S. Smith

Continuous-time Markov decision processes are an important class of models in a wide range of applications, ranging from cyber-physical systems to synthetic biology. A central problem is how to devise a policy to control the system in order…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-06-01 Ezio Bartocci , Luca Bortolussi , Tomǎš Brázdil , Dimitrios Milios , Guido Sanguinetti

Stochastic dominance has been studied extensively, particularly in the finance and economics literature. In this paper, we obtain two results. First, necessary conditions for higher-order inverse stochastic dominance are developed. These…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-08 Meng Guan , Zhenfeng Zou , Taizhong Hu

We introduce a new statistical test based on the observed spacings of ordered data. The statistic is sensitive to detect non-uniformity in random samples, or short-lived features in event time series. Under some conditions, this new test…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-27 Philipp Eller , Lolian Shtembari

Non-deterministic measurements are common in real-world scenarios: the performance of a stochastic optimization algorithm or the total reward of a reinforcement learning agent in a chaotic environment are just two examples in which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-31 Etor Arza , Josu Ceberio , Ekhiñe Irurozki , Aritz Pérez

A benefit of randomized experiments is that covariate distributions of treatment and control groups are balanced on average, resulting in simple unbiased estimators for treatment effects. However, it is possible that a particular…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-01 Zach Branson , Luke Miratrix

Conditional independence testing (CIT) is a common task in machine learning, e.g., for variable selection, and a main component of constraint-based causal discovery. While most current CIT approaches assume that all variables are numerical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-07 Oana-Iuliana Popescu , Andreas Gerhardus , Jakob Runge