Related papers: Determining a credit transition matrix from cumula…
Risk management is an important practice in the banking industry. In this paper we develop a new methodology to estimate and predict the probability of default (PD) based on the rating transition matrices, which relates the rating…
Bond rating Transition Probability Matrices (TPMs) are built over a one-year time-frame and for many practical purposes, like the assessment of risk in portfolios or the computation of banking Capital Requirements (e.g. the new IFRS 9…
We develop a model for credit rating migration that accounts for the impact of economic state fluctuations on default probabilities. The joint process for the economic state and the rating is modelled as a time-homogeneous Markov chain.…
We present two methodologies on the estimation of rating transition probabilities within Markov and non-Markov frameworks. We first estimate a continuous-time Markov chain using discrete (missing) data and derive a simpler expression for…
We propose a Markov chain model for credit rating changes. We do not use any distributional assumptions on the asset values of the rated companies but directly model the rating transitions process. The parameters of the model are estimated…
We consider the problem of constructing an appropriate multivariate model for the study of the counterparty credit risk in credit rating migration problem. For this financial problem different multivariate Markov chain models were proposed.…
There exists a range of different models for estimating and simulating credit risk transitions to optimally manage credit risk portfolios and products. In this chapter we present a Coupled Markov Chain approach to model rating transitions…
We consider the problem of estimating the transition rate matrix of a continuous-time Markov chain from a finite-duration realisation of this process. We approach this problem in an imprecise probabilistic framework, using a set of prior…
In banking practice, rating transition matrices have become the standard approach of deriving multi-year probabilities of default (PDs) from one-year PDs, the latter normally being available from Basel ratings. Rating transition matrices…
We develop a central limit theorem (CLT) for a non-parametric estimator of the transition matrices in controlled Markov chains (CMCs) with finite state-action spaces. Our results establish precise conditions on the logging policy under…
Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is the first theory for decision-making under uncertainty that combines full theoretical soundness and empirically realistic features [P.P. Wakker - Prospect theory: For risk and ambiguity, Page 2]. While…
Due to the recent increase in interest in Financial Technology (FinTech), applications like credit default prediction (CDP) are gaining significant industrial and academic attention. In this regard, CDP plays a crucial role in assessing the…
This paper presents a convenient framework for modeling default process and pricing derivative securities involving credit risk. The framework provides an integrated view of credit valuation adjustment by linking distance-to-default,…
Many problems of practical interest rely on Continuous-time Markov chains~(CTMCs) defined over combinatorial state spaces, rendering the computation of transition probabilities, and hence probabilistic inference, difficult or impossible…
As part of Basel II's incremental risk charge (IRC) methodology, this paper summarizes our extensive investigations of constructing transition probability matrices (TPMs) for unsecuritized credit products in the trading book. The objective…
Under certain conditions, the dynamics of coarse-grained models of solvated proteins can be described using a Markov state model, which tracks the evolution of populations of configurations. The transition rates among states that appear in…
Parametric Markov chains (pMC) are used to model probabilistic systems with unknown or partially known probabilities. Although (universal) pMC verification for reachability properties is known to be coETR-complete, there have been efforts…
Since the 1990s, there have been significant advances in the technology space and the e-Commerce area, leading to an exponential increase in demand for cashless payment solutions. This has led to increased demand for credit cards, bringing…
Diffusion in a linear potential in the presence of position-dependent killing is used to mimic a default process. Different assumptions regarding transport coefficients, initial conditions, and elasticity of the killing measure lead to…
The lifetime behaviour of loans is notoriously difficult to model, which can compromise a bank's financial reserves against future losses, if modelled poorly. Therefore, we present a data-driven comparative study amongst three techniques in…