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Predicting the motion of surrounding vehicles is essential for autonomous vehicles, as it governs their own motion plan. Current state-of-the-art vehicle prediction models heavily rely on map information. In reality, however, this…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-02-11 Julian Schmidt , Julian Jordan , Franz Gritschneder , Klaus Dietmayer

Conformal prediction (CP) constructs uncertainty sets for model outputs with finite-sample coverage guarantees. A candidate output is included in the prediction set if its non-conformity score is not considered extreme relative to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-20 Eugene Ndiaye

Chance constrained programming (CCP) is a powerful framework for addressing optimization problems under uncertainty. In this paper, we introduce a novel Gradient-Guided Diffusion-based Optimization framework, termed GGDOpt, which tackles…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-15 Boyang Zhang , Zhiguo Wang , Ya-Feng Liu

Model Predictive Control is an extremely effective control method for systems with input and state constraints. Model Predictive Control performance heavily depends on the accuracy of the open-loop prediction. For systems with uncertainty…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-07-27 Francesco Micheli , John Lygeros

There are five types of trajectory prediction tasks: deterministic, stochastic, domain adaptation, momentary observation, and few-shot. These associated tasks are defined by various factors, such as the length of input paths, data split and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-03-28 Inhwan Bae , Young-Jae Park , Hae-Gon Jeon

Agent behavior is arguably the greatest source of uncertainty in trajectory planning for autonomous vehicles. This problem has motivated significant amounts of work in the behavior prediction community on learning rich distributions of the…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-07-16 Allen Wang , Ashkan Jasour , Brian Williams

Being able to safely operate for extended periods of time in dynamic environments is a critical capability for autonomous systems. This generally involves the prediction and understanding of motion patterns of dynamic entities, such as…

Robotics · Computer Science 2019-09-26 Weiming Zhi , Tin Lai , Lionel Ott , Gilad Francis , Fabio Ramos

Accurate and reliable prediction has profound implications to a wide range of applications. In this study, we focus on an instance of spatio-temporal learning problem--traffic prediction--to demonstrate an advanced deep learning model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-27 Pingping Dong , Xiao-Lin Wang , Indranil Bose , Kam K. H. Ng , Xiaoning Zhang , Xiaoge Zhang

In regression, conformal prediction is a general methodology to construct prediction intervals in a distribution-free manner. Although conformal prediction guarantees strong statistical property for predictive inference, its inherent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-12-01 Wenyu Chen , Zhaokai Wang , Wooseok Ha , Rina Foygel Barber

This paper presents two stochastic model predictive control methods for linear time-invariant systems subject to unbounded additive uncertainties. The new methods are developed by formulating the chance constraints into deterministic form,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-04-22 Fei Li , Huiping Li , Yuyao He

Training-free conditional diffusion provides a flexible alternative to task-specific conditional model training, but existing samplers often allocate computation inefficiently: independent guided trajectories can vary widely in quality, and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-06 Andreas Makris , Paul Fearnhead , Chris Nemeth

Trajectory prediction is an essential component in autonomous driving, particularly for collision avoidance systems. Considering the inherent uncertainty of the task, numerous studies have utilized generative models to produce multiple…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-03-15 Chen Liu , Shibo He , Haoyu Liu , Jiming Chen

As autonomous robots increasingly become part of daily life, they will often encounter dynamic environments while only having limited information about their surroundings. Unfortunately, due to the possible presence of malicious dynamic…

Diffusion models have demonstrated empirical successes in various applications and can be adapted to task-specific needs via guidance. This paper studies a form of gradient guidance for adapting a pre-trained diffusion model towards…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-17 Yingqing Guo , Hui Yuan , Yukang Yang , Minshuo Chen , Mengdi Wang

Future trajectories play an important role across domains such as autonomous driving, hurricane forecasting, and epidemic modeling, where practitioners commonly generate ensemble paths by sampling probabilistic models or leveraging multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-20 Ruipu Li , Daniel Menacho , Alexander Rodríguez

Planning is a critical component of end-to-end autonomous driving. However, prevailing imitation learning methods often suffer from mode collapse, failing to produce diverse trajectory hypotheses. Meanwhile, existing generative approaches…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-31 Lin Liu , Guanyi Yu , Ziying Song , Junqiao Li , Caiyan Jia , Feiyang Jia , Peiliang Wu , Yandan Luo

Forecasting faithful trajectories of multivariate time series from practical scopes is essential for reasonable decision-making. Recent methods majorly tailor generative conditional diffusion models to estimate the target temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-04 Siyang Li , Yize Chen , Hui Xiong

In this work, an adaptive predictive control scheme for linear systems with unknown parameters and bounded additive disturbances is proposed. In contrast to related adaptive control approaches that robustly consider the parametric…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-03 Johannes Teutsch , Christopher Narr , Sebastian Kerz , Dirk Wollherr , Marion Leibold

Diffusion models have shown promise in forecasting future data from multivariate time series. However, few existing methods account for recurring structures, or patterns, that appear within the data. We present Pattern-Guided Diffusion…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Vivian Lin , Kuk Jin Jang , Wenwen Si , Insup Lee

In Model Predictive Control (MPC) formulations of trajectory tracking problems, infeasible reference trajectories and a-priori unknown constraints can lead to cumbersome designs, aggressive tracking, and loss of recursive feasibility. This…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-04-05 Ivo Batkovic , Mohammad Ali , Paolo Falcone , Mario Zanon