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Surrogate models - also called emulators - are widely used to facilitate Bayesian inference in settings where computational costs preclude the use of standard posterior inference algorithms. Their deployment is now standard practice across…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Andrew Gerard Roberts , Michael C. Dietze , Jonathan H. Huggins

In the last years several estimation strategies have been formulated to determine the value of an unknown parameter in the most precise way, taking into account the presence of noise. These strategies typically rely on the use of quantum…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-08-31 Andrea Smirne , Andreas Lemmer , Martin B. Plenio , Susana F. Huelga

Surrogate models, crucial for approximating complex simulation data across sciences, inherently carry uncertainties that range from simulation noise to model prediction errors. Without rigorous uncertainty quantification, predictions become…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-07 Yuhan Duan , Xin Zhao , Neng Shi , Han-Wei Shen

Quantum Annealing (QA) can efficiently solve combinatorial optimization problems whose objective functions are represented by Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) formulations. For broader applicability of QA, quadratization…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-07-29 Hyakka Nakada , Shu Tanaka

Data-based optimization (DBO) offers a promising approach for efficiently optimizing shape for better aerodynamic performance by leveraging a pretrained surrogate model for offline evaluations during iterations. However, DBO heavily relies…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Yunjia Yang , Runze Li , Yufei Zhang , Haixin Chen

Neural operators (NOs) provide fast, resolution-invariant surrogates for mapping input fields to PDE solution fields, but their predictions can exhibit significant epistemic uncertainty due to finite data, imperfect optimization, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Haoze Song , Zhihao Li , Mengyi Deng , Xin Li , Duyi Pan , Zhilu Lai , Wei Wang

Limiting the injection rate to restrict the pressure below a threshold at a critical location can be an important goal of simulations that model the subsurface pressure between injection and extraction wells. The pressure is approximated by…

The success of analytic waveform modeling within the effective-one-body (EOB) approach relies on the precise understanding of the physical importance of each technical element included in the model. The urgency of constructing progressively…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2023-12-12 Alessandro Nagar , Piero Rettegno , Rossella Gamba , Simone Albanesi , Angelica Albertini , Sebastiano Bernuzzi

Surrogate modeling of eccentric binary black hole waveforms has remained challenging. The complicated morphology of these waveforms due to the eccentric orbital timescale variations makes it difficult to construct accurate and efficient…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-10-03 Akash Maurya , Prayush Kumar , Scott E. Field , Chandra Kant Mishra , Peter James Nee , Kaushik Paul , Harald P. Pfeiffer , Adhrit Ravichandran , Vijay Varma

The Bayesian uncertainty quantification technique has become well established in turbulence modeling over the past few years. However, it is computationally expensive to construct a globally accurate surrogate model for Bayesian inference…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-03-16 Fanzhi Zeng , Wei Zhang , Jinping Li , Tianxin Zhang , Chao Yan

The Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) model has gained prominence in recent years with the discovery that it unifies a rich variety of combinatorial optimization problems. By its association with the Ising problem in…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2019-11-06 Fred Glover , Gary Kochenberger , Yu Du

In this paper, a new sequential surrogate-based optimization (SSBO) algorithm is developed, which aims to improve the global search ability and local search efficiency for the global optimization of expensive black-box models. The proposed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-30 Chunlin Gong , Xu Li , Hua Su , Jinlei Guo , Liangxian Gu

Prediction+optimization is a common real-world paradigm where we have to predict problem parameters before solving the optimization problem. However, the criteria by which the prediction model is trained are often inconsistent with the goal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-23 Kai Yan , Jie Yan , Chuan Luo , Liting Chen , Qingwei Lin , Dongmei Zhang

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is the dominant mode of variability in the equatorial stratosphere. It is characterized by alternating descending easterly and westerly jets over a period of approximately 28 months. It has long been…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-12-24 Claire Valva , Edwin P. Gerber

The development of a reliable and robust surrogate model is often constrained by the dimensionality of the problem. For a system with high-dimensional inputs/outputs (I/O), conventional approaches usually use a low-dimensional manifold to…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-10-01 Xihaier Luo , Ahsan Kareem

There is a high interest in accelerating multiscale models using data-driven surrogate modeling techniques. Creating a large training dataset encompassing all relevant load scenarios is essential for a good surrogate, yet the computational…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-04-24 J. Storm , W. Sun , I. B. C. M. Rocha , F. P. van der Meer

The high dimensionality of kinetic equations with stochastic parameters poses major computational challenges for uncertainty quantification (UQ). Traditional Monte Carlo (MC) sampling methods, while widely used, suffer from slow convergence…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-13 Wei Chen , Giacomo Dimarco , Lorenzo Pareschi

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential for the reliable application of computational models in engineering and science. Among surrogate modeling techniques, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) is particularly valuable for its…

Computation · Statistics 2025-12-15 Jinglai Li , Hongqiao Wang

Quasi-periodic oscillation (QPOs) analysis is important for understanding the dynamical behavior of many astrophysical objects during transient events such as gamma-ray bursts, solar flares, magnetar flares, and fast radio bursts. In this…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2023-12-07 Kuantay Boshkayev , Talgar Konysbayev , Yergali Kurmanov , Marco Muccino , Hernando Quevedo

This paper describes stratospheric waves in ERA5 reanalysis and evaluates the contributions of different types of waves to the driving of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Because of its higher spatial resolution compared to its…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-07-17 Hamid A. Pahlavan , John M. Wallace , Qiang Fu , George N. Kiladis