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A machine learning model is calibrated if its predicted probability for an outcome matches the observed frequency for that outcome conditional on the model prediction. This property has become increasingly important as the impact of machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Muthu Chidambaram , Rong Ge

In this paper, we study a class of bilevel optimization problems, also known as simple bilevel optimization, where we minimize a smooth objective function over the optimal solution set of another convex constrained optimization problem.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-04-25 Ruichen Jiang , Nazanin Abolfazli , Aryan Mokhtari , Erfan Yazdandoost Hamedani

Estimating hyperparameters has been a long-standing problem in machine learning. We consider the case where the task at hand is modeled as the solution to an optimization problem. Here the exact gradient with respect to the hyperparameters…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-11-16 Matthias J. Ehrhardt , Lindon Roberts

Computer-aided diagnosis systems must make critical decisions from medical images that are often noisy, ambiguous, or conflicting, yet today's models are trained on overly simplistic labels that ignore diagnostic uncertainty. One-hot labels…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-09-16 Ang Nan Gu , Michael Tsang , Hooman Vaseli , Purang Abolmaesumi , Teresa Tsang

Whenever a binary classifier is used to provide decision support, it typically provides both a label prediction and a confidence value. Then, the decision maker is supposed to use the confidence value to calibrate how much to trust the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-26 Nina L. Corvelo Benz , Manuel Gomez Rodriguez

Mislabeled data is a pervasive issue that undermines the performance of machine learning systems in real-world applications. An effective approach to mitigate this problem is to detect mislabeled instances and subject them to special…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-05 Ilies Chibane , Thomas George , Pierre Nodet , Vincent Lemaire

Dealing with uncertainty in optimization parameters is an important and longstanding challenge. Typically, uncertain parameters are predicted accurately, and then a deterministic optimization problem is solved. However, the decisions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-11 Víctor Bucarey , Sophia Calderón , Gonzalo Muñoz , Frederic Semet

Reliable uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks is very crucial in safety-critical applications such as automated driving for trustworthy and informed decision-making. Assessing the quality of uncertainty estimates is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-12-12 Neslihan Kose , Ranganath Krishnan , Akash Dhamasia , Omesh Tickoo , Michael Paulitsch

Mixup~\cite{zhang2017mixup} is a recently proposed method for training deep neural networks where additional samples are generated during training by convexly combining random pairs of images and their associated labels. While simple to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-08 Sunil Thulasidasan , Gopinath Chennupati , Jeff Bilmes , Tanmoy Bhattacharya , Sarah Michalak

Generating confidence calibrated outputs is of utmost importance for the applications of deep neural networks in safety-critical decision-making systems. The output of a neural network is a probability distribution where the scores are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-17 Chihuang Liu , Joseph JaJa

The field of algorithms with predictions incorporates machine learning advice in the design of online algorithms to improve real-world performance. A central consideration is the extent to which predictions can be trusted -- while existing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-26 Judy Hanwen Shen , Ellen Vitercik , Anders Wikum

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have demonstrated remarkable effectiveness on graph-based tasks. However, their predictive confidence is often miscalibrated, typically exhibiting under-confidence, which harms the reliability of their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Jincheng Huang , Jie Xu , Xiaoshuang Shi , Ping Hu , Lei Feng , Xiaofeng Zhu

This work formulates the machine learning mechanism as a bi-level optimization problem. The inner level optimization loop entails minimizing a properly chosen loss function evaluated on the training data. This is nothing but the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-27 Maziar Raissi

Training deep neural networks with noisy labels remains a significant challenge, often leading to degraded performance. Existing methods for handling label noise typically rely on either transition matrix, noise detection, or meta-learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Zhanhui Lin , Yanlin Liu , Sanping Zhou

Deep neural network (DNN) classifiers are often overconfident, producing miscalibrated class probabilities. In high-risk applications like healthcare, practitioners require $\textit{fully calibrated}$ probability predictions for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-09 Zhen Lin , Shubhendu Trivedi , Jimeng Sun

In many scenarios, one uses a large training set to train a model with the goal of performing well on a smaller testing set with a different distribution. Learning a weight for each data point of the training set is an appealing solution,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-27 Anastasia Ivanova , Pierre Ablin

The ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider explores the use of modern neural networks for a multi-dimensional calibration of its calorimeter signal defined by clusters of topologically connected cells (topo-clusters). The Bayesian…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2026-02-03 ATLAS Collaboration

Accurate quantification of uncertainty is crucial for real-world applications of machine learning. However, modern deep neural networks still produce unreliable predictive uncertainty, often yielding over-confident predictions. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-29 Peng Cui , Wenbo Hu , Jun Zhu

We prove a fundamental impossibility theorem: neural networks cannot simultaneously learn well-calibrated confidence estimates with meaningful diversity when trained using binary correct/incorrect supervision. Through rigorous mathematical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-19 Arjun S. Nair , Kristina P. Sinaga

Overconfidence is a common issue for deep neural networks, limiting their deployment in real-world applications. To better estimate confidence, existing methods mostly focus on fully-supervised scenarios and rely on training labels. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-21 Chen Li , Xiaoling Hu , Chao Chen