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We present a novel approach to probabilistic electricity price forecasting which utilizes distributional neural networks. The model structure is based on a deep neural network that contains a so-called probability layer. The network's…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-09-29 Grzegorz Marcjasz , Michał Narajewski , Rafał Weron , Florian Ziel

We investigate the problem of statistical inference for logistic regression with high-dimensional covariates in settings where dependence among individuals is induced by an underlying Markov random field. Going beyond the pairwise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-23 Josh Miles , Sohom Bhattacharya

Computing accurate estimates of the Fourier transform of analog signals from discrete data points is important in many fields of science and engineering. The conventional approach of performing the discrete Fourier transform of the data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-12-08 Luca Ambrogioni , Eric Maris

We consider the estimation of the value of a linear functional of the slope parameter in functional linear regression, where scalar responses are modeled in dependence of random functions. The theory in this paper covers in particular…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-12-19 J. Johannes , R. Schenk

This paper develops a data-driven inverse reinforcement learning technique for a class of linear systems to estimate the cost function of an agent online, using input-output measurements. A simultaneous state and parameter estimator is…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2021-07-07 Rushikesh Kamalapurkar

This paper considers inference on fixed effects in a linear regression model estimated from network data. An important special case of our setup is the two-way regression model. This is a workhorse technique in the analysis of matched data…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-02 Koen Jochmans , Martin Weidner

We propose a regularized factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model that allows for sparsity in the factor loadings. In this framework, factors may only load on a subset of variables which simplifies the factor identification and…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-12-13 Maurizio Daniele , Julie Schnaitmann

One of the challenges with functional data is incorporating spatial structure, or local correlation, into the analysis. This structure is inherent in the output from an increasing number of biomedical technologies, and a functional linear…

Applications · Statistics 2011-11-07 Timothy W. Randolph , Jaroslaw Harezlak , Ziding Feng

Power curves capture the relationship between wind speed and output power for a specific wind turbine. Accurate regression models of this function prove useful in monitoring, maintenance, design, and planning. In practice, however, the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-01 L. A. Bull , P. A. Gardner , T. J. Rogers , N. Dervilis , E. J. Cross , E. Papatheou , A. E. Maguire , C. Campos , K. Worden

This article is dedicated to the estimation of the regression function when the explanatory variable is a weakly dependent process whose correlation coefficient exhibits exponential decay and has a known bounded density function. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-17 Karine Bertin , Lisandro Fermin , Miguel Padrino

We consider the problem of constructing a regression model with a functional predictor and a functional response. We extend the functional linear model to the quadratic model, where the quadratic term also takes the interaction between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-01 Hidetoshi Matsui

We suggest a new method, called Functional Additive Regression, or FAR, for efficiently performing high-dimensional functional regression. FAR extends the usual linear regression model involving a functional predictor, $X(t)$, and a scalar…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-10-15 Yingying Fan , Gareth M. James , Peter Radchenko

In the modern power market, electricity trading is an extremely competitive industry. More accurate price forecast is crucial to help electricity producers and traders make better decisions. In this paper, a novel method of convolutional…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-03-17 Hsu-Yung Cheng , Ping-Huan Kuo , Yamin Shen , Chiou-Jye Huang

Functional Principal Component Analysis is a reference method for dimension reduction of curve data. Its theoretical properties are now well understood in the simplified case where the sample curves are fully observed without noise.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-28 Ryad Belhakem , Franck Picard , Vincent Rivoirard , Angelina Roche

We analyze the problem of regression when both input covariates and output responses are functions from a nonparametric function class. Function to function regression (FFR) covers a large range of interesting applications including…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-10-29 Junier Oliva , Willie Neiswanger , Barnabas Poczos , Eric Xing , Jeff Schneider

This work introduces a novel, simple, and flexible method to quantify irreversibility in generic high-dimensional time series based on the well-known mapping to a binary classification problem. Our approach utilizes gradient boosting for…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-01-09 Michele Vodret , Cristiano Pacini , Christian Bongiorno

We consider the estimation of approximate factor models for time series data, where strong serial and cross-sectional correlations amongst the idiosyncratic component are present. This setting comes up naturally in many applications, but…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-10 Jiahe Lin , George Michailidis

Functional Principal Component Analysis (FPCA) has become a widely-used dimension reduction tool for functional data analysis. When additional covariates are available, existing FPCA models integrate them either in the mean function or in…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-13 Ci-Ren Jiang , Eardi Lila , John AD Aston , Jane-Ling Wang

The participation of consumers and producers in demand response programs has increased in smart grids, which reduces investment and operation costs of power systems. Also, with the advent of renewable energy sources, the electricity market…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-29 Nafise Rezaei , Roozbeh Rajabi , Abouzar Estebsari

In many applications, the variables that characterize a stochastic system are measured along a second dimension, such as time. This results in multivariate functional data and the interest is in describing the statistical dependences among…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-11 Marco Borriero , Luigi Augugliaro , Gianluca Sottile , Veronica Vinciotti