Related papers: Simulation-based Bayesian inference under model mi…
Bayesian inference for complex models with an intractable likelihood can be tackled using algorithms performing many calls to computer simulators. These approaches are collectively known as "simulation-based inference" (SBI). Recent SBI…
Scientists and engineers employ stochastic numerical simulators to model empirically observed phenomena. In contrast to purely statistical models, simulators express scientific principles that provide powerful inductive biases, improve…
Simulation-based inference (SBI) is the preferred framework for estimating parameters of intractable models in science and engineering. A significant challenge in this context is the large computational cost of simulating data from complex…
Simulation-based inference (SBI) is a method to perform inference on a variety of complex scientific models with challenging inference (inverse) problems. Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design (BOED) aims to efficiently use experimental…
Bayesian synthetic likelihood is a widely used approach for conducting Bayesian analysis in complex models where evaluation of the likelihood is infeasible but simulation from the assumed model is tractable. We analyze the behaviour of the…
Bayesian inference allows expressing the uncertainty of posterior belief under a probabilistic model given prior information and the likelihood of the evidence. Predominantly, the likelihood function is only implicitly established by a…
Recent advances in neural density estimation have enabled powerful simulation-based inference (SBI) methods that can flexibly approximate Bayesian inference for intractable stochastic models. Although these methods have demonstrated…
Bayesian inference represents a principled way to incorporate Earth structure uncertainty in full-waveform moment tensor inversions, but traditional approaches generally require significant approximations that risk biasing the resulting…
Bayesian synthetic likelihood (BSL) is now an established method for conducting approximate Bayesian inference in models where, due to the intractability of the likelihood function, exact Bayesian approaches are either infeasible or…
Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables parameter inference by training neural networks on forward simulations. It is being applied both for intractable likelihoods as well as under time constraints on the posterior sampling. After…
Our paper deals with inferring simulator-based statistical models given some observed data. A simulator-based model is a parametrized mechanism which specifies how data are generated. It is thus also referred to as generative model. We…
Driven by steady progress in deep generative modeling, simulation-based inference (SBI) has emerged as the workhorse for inferring the parameters of stochastic simulators. However, recent work has demonstrated that model misspecification…
Bayesian statistical inference loses predictive optimality when generative models are misspecified. Working within an existing coherent loss-based generalisation of Bayesian inference, we show existing Modular/Cut-model inference is…
Simulation-based inference (SBI) is transforming experimental sciences by enabling parameter estimation in complex non-linear models from simulated data. A persistent challenge, however, is model misspecification: simulators are only…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is one of the most popular "likelihood-free" methods. These methods have been applied in a wide range of fields by providing solutions to intractable likelihood problems in which exact Bayesian…
Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables amortized Bayesian inference for simulators with implicit likelihoods. But when we are primarily interested in the quality of predictive simulations, or when the model cannot exactly reproduce the…
Simulation-based inference (SBI) methods tackle complex scientific models with challenging inverse problems. However, SBI models often face a significant hurdle due to their non-differentiable nature, which hampers the use of gradient-based…
Simulation-based inference (SBI) offers a flexible and general approach to performing Bayesian inference: In SBI, a neural network is trained on synthetic data simulated from a model and used to rapidly infer posterior distributions for…
We analyze the behavior of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) when the model generating the simulated data differs from the actual data generating process; i.e., when the data simulator in ABC is misspecified. We demonstrate both…
Copula models of multivariate data are popular because they allow separate specification of marginal distributions and the copula function. These components can be treated as inter-related modules in a modified Bayesian inference approach…