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As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for factual question-answering, it becomes more important for LLMs to have the capability to communicate the likelihood that their answer is correct. For these verbalized expressions of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-15 Sophia Hager , David Mueller , Kevin Duh , Nicholas Andrews

While Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) achieve state-of-the-art accuracy in various applications, they often fall short in accurately estimating their predictive uncertainty and, in turn, fail to recognize when these predictions may be wrong.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-22 Ankur Mallick , Chaitanya Dwivedi , Bhavya Kailkhura , Gauri Joshi , T. Yong-Jin Han

Ensemble models comprising of deep Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) have shown significant improvements in model generalization but at the cost of large computation and memory requirements. In this paper, we present a framework for…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-04-03 Umar Asif , Jianbin Tang , Stefan Harrer

Large Language Models (LLMs) often exhibit misalignment between the quality of their generated responses and the confidence estimates they assign to them. Bayesian treatments, such as marginalizing over a reliable weight posterior or over…

Dataset distillation enables the training of deep neural networks with comparable performance in significantly reduced time by compressing large datasets into small and representative ones. Although the introduction of generative models has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Mingzhuo Li , Guang Li , Jiafeng Mao , Takahiro Ogawa , Miki Haseyama

Quantifying uncertainty in Large Language Models (LLMs) is essential for mitigating hallucinations and enabling risk-aware deployment in safety-critical tasks. However, estimating Epistemic Uncertainty(EU) via Deep Ensembles is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Seonghyeon Park , Jewon Yeom , Jaewon Sok , Jeongjae Park , Heejun Kim , Taesup Kim

The ability to estimate epistemic uncertainty is often crucial when deploying machine learning in the real world, but modern methods often produce overconfident, uncalibrated uncertainty predictions. A common approach to quantify epistemic…

Techniques such as ensembling and distillation promise model quality improvements when paired with almost any base model. However, due to increased test-time cost (for ensembles) and increased complexity of the training pipeline (for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-24 Rohan Anil , Gabriel Pereyra , Alexandre Passos , Robert Ormandi , George E. Dahl , Geoffrey E. Hinton

Deep learning models are being adopted and applied on various critical decision-making tasks, yet they are trained to provide point predictions without providing degrees of confidence. The trustworthiness of deep learning models can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-28 Daniel Nolte , Souparno Ghosh , Ranadip Pal

Ensembles of machine learning models yield improved system performance as well as robust and interpretable uncertainty estimates; however, their inference costs may often be prohibitively high. \emph{Ensemble Distribution Distillation} is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-17 Max Ryabinin , Andrey Malinin , Mark Gales

Uncertainty quantification by ensemble learning is explored in terms of an application from computational optical form measurements. The application requires to solve a large-scale, nonlinear inverse problem. Ensemble learning is used to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-03 Lara Hoffmann , Ines Fortmeier , Clemens Elster

It has been recently demonstrated that multi-generational self-distillation can improve generalization. Despite this intriguing observation, reasons for the enhancement remain poorly understood. In this paper, we first demonstrate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-23 Zhilu Zhang , Mert R. Sabuncu

The diversity of recommendation is equally crucial as accuracy in improving user experience. Existing studies, e.g., Determinantal Point Process (DPP) and Maximal Marginal Relevance (MMR), employ a greedy paradigm to iteratively select…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-08-15 Fan Li , Xu Si , Shisong Tang , Dingmin Wang , Kunyan Han , Bing Han , Guorui Zhou , Yang Song , Hechang Chen

Image classification with neural networks (NNs) is widely used in industrial processes, situations where the model likely encounters unknown objects during deployment, i.e., out-of-distribution (OOD) data. Worryingly, NNs tend to make…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-14 Arthur Thuy , Dries F. Benoit

In this paper, we approach the problem of uncertainty quantification in deep learning through a predictive framework, which captures uncertainty in model parameters by specifying our assumptions about the predictive distribution of unseen…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-20 Luhuan Wu , Sinead Williamson

Seismic inversion is essential for geophysical exploration and geological assessment, but it is inherently subject to significant uncertainty. This uncertainty stems primarily from the limited information provided by observed seismic data,…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-09-12 Luping Qu , Mauricio Araya-Polo , Laurent Demanet

Uncertainty quantification is crucial for building reliable and trustable machine learning systems. We propose to estimate uncertainty in recurrent neural networks (RNNs) via stochastic discrete state transitions over recurrent timesteps.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Cheng Wang , Carolin Lawrence , Mathias Niepert

Deep metric learning aims to transform input data into an embedding space, where similar samples are close while dissimilar samples are far apart from each other. In practice, samples of new categories arrive incrementally, which requires…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-03-11 Gao-Dong Liu , Wan-Lei Zhao , Jie Zhao

Despite the huge success of deep neural networks (NNs), finding good mechanisms for quantifying their prediction uncertainty is still an open problem. Bayesian neural networks are one of the most popular approaches to uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-01 Agustinus Kristiadi , Sina Däubener , Asja Fischer

We present a novel approach for training deep neural networks in a Bayesian way. Classical, i.e. non-Bayesian, deep learning has two major drawbacks both originating from the fact that network parameters are considered to be deterministic.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-11 Konstantin Posch , Jan Steinbrener , Jürgen Pilz