Related papers: Tail behavior of randomly weighted sums with inter…
Programs with randomization constructs is an active research topic, especially after the recent introduction of martingale-based analysis methods for their termination and runtimes. Unlike most of the existing works that focus on proving…
Exponential tail bounds for sums play an important role in statistics, but the example of the $t$-statistic shows that the exponential tail decay may be lost when population parameters need to be estimated from the data. However, it turns…
We study the asymptotic tail probability of the first-passage time over a moving boundary for a random walk conditioned to return to zero, where the increments of the random walk have finite variance. Typically, the asymptotic tail behavior…
Random deflated risk models have been considered in recent literatures. In this paper, we investigate second-order tail behavior of the deflated risk X=RS under the assumptions of second-order regular variation on the survival functions of…
We consider random variables observed at arrival times of a renewal process, which possibly depends on those observations and has regularly varying steps with infinite mean. Due to the dependence and heavy tailed steps, the limiting…
We consider the estimation of small probabilities or other risk quantities associated with rare but catastrophic events. In the model-based literature, much of the focus has been devoted to efficient Monte Carlo computation or analytical…
Stochastic volatility processes with heavy-tailed innovations are a well-known model for financial time series. In these models, the extremes of the log returns are mainly driven by the extremes of the i.i.d. innovation sequence which leads…
We study a new technique for the asymptotic analysis of heavy-tailed systems conditioned on large deviations events. We illustrate our approach in the context of ruin events of multidimensional regularly varying random walks. Our approach…
We compute the tail asymptotics of the product of a beta random variable and a generalized gamma random variable which are independent and have general parameters. A special case of these asymptotics were proved and used in a recent work of…
We provide exact asymptotics for the tail probabilities $\mathbb{P} \{S_{n,r} > x\}$ as $x \to \infty$, for fix $n$, where $S_{n,r}$ is the $r$-trimmed partial sum of i.i.d. St. Petersburg random variables. In particular, we prove that…
We consider a class of strongly edge-reinforced random walks, where the corresponding reinforcement weight function is nondecreasing. It is known, from Limic and Tarr\`{e}s [Ann. Probab. (2007), to appear], that the attracting edge emerges…
The big jump principle explains the emergence of extreme events for physical quantities modelled by a sum of independent and identically distributed random variables which are heavy-tailed. Extreme events are large values of the sum and…
In this work, we consider extensions of the dual risk model with proportional gains by introducing a dependence structure between gain sizes and gain interrarrival times. Among others, we further consider the case where the proportional…
In this paper we derive the tail asymptotics of the product of two dependent Weibull-type risks, which is of interest in various statistical and applied probability problems. Our results extend some recent findings of Schlueter and Fischer…
We review recent progress in modeling credit risk for correlated assets. We start from the Merton model which default events and losses are derived from the asset values at maturity. To estimate the time development of the asset values, the…
Tail asymptotics of the solution $R$ to a fixpoint problem of type $R =_{st} Q + \sum_1^N R_m$ is derived under heavy-tailed conditions allowing both dependence between $Q$ and $N$ and the tails to be of the same order of magnitude. Similar…
Gaussian random vectors exhibit the loss of dimension phenomena, which relate to their joint survival tail behaviour. Besides, the fact that the components of such vectors are light-tailed complicates the approximations of various…
We obtain the distribution of the maximal average in a sequence of independent identically distributed exponential random variables. Surprisingly enough, it turns out that the inverse distribution admits a simple closed form. An application…
Expectile bears some interesting properties in comparison to the industry wide expected shortfall in terms of assessment of tail risk. We study the relationship between expectile and expected shortfall using duality results and the link to…
In this paper, we compute multivariate tail risk probabilities where the marginal risks are heavy-tailed and the dependence structure is a Gaussian copula. The marginal heavy-tailed risks are modeled using regular variation which leads to a…