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P-value functions are modern statistical tools that unify effect estimation and hypothesis testing and can provide alternative point and interval estimates compared to standard meta-analysis methods, using any of the many $p$-value…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-24 Leonhard Held , Felix Hofmann , Samuel Pawel

Statistical significance of both the original and the replication study is a commonly used criterion to assess replication attempts, also known as the two-trials rule in drug development. However, replication studies are sometimes conducted…

Applications · Statistics 2024-05-31 Leonhard Held , Samuel Pawel , Charlotte Micheloud

The two-trials rule for drug approval requires "at least two adequate and well-controlled studies, each convincing on its own, to establish effectiveness". This is usually implemented by requiring two significant pivotal trials and is the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-10 Leonhard Held

Background: The standard regulatory approach to assess replication success is the two-trials rule, requiring both the original and the replication study to be significant with effect estimates in the same direction. The sceptical p-value…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-01 Jeanette Köppe , Charlotte Micheloud , Stella Erdmann , Rachel Heyard , Leonhard Held

Meta-analysis is a well-established tool used to combine data from several independent studies, each of which usually compares the effect of an experimental treatment with a control group. While meta-analyses are often performed using…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-02 Phuc Thien Tran , Long-Hao Xu , Christian Röver , Tim Friede

Meta-analysis can be formulated as combining $p$-values across studies into a joint $p$-value function, from which point estimates and confidence intervals can be derived. We extend the meta-analytic estimation framework based on combined…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-21 David Kronthaler , Leonhard Held

Statistical inference about the average effect in random-effects meta-analysis has been considered insufficient in the presence of substantial between-study heterogeneity. Predictive distributions are well-suited for quantifying…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-16 David Kronthaler , Leonhard Held

Increased availability of data and accessibility of computational tools in recent years have created unprecedented opportunities for scientific research driven by statistical analysis. Inherent limitations of statistics impose constrains on…

Genomics · Quantitative Biology 2016-09-13 Olga A. Vsevolozhskaya , Gabriel Ruiz , Dmitri V. Zaykin

The problem of combining p-values is an old and fundamental one, and the classic assumption of independence is often violated or unverifiable in many applications. There are many well-known rules that can combine a set of arbitrarily…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-21 Matteo Gasparin , Ruodu Wang , Aaditya Ramdas

Combining p-values to integrate multiple effects is of long-standing interest in social science and biomedical research. In this paper, we focus on revisiting a classical scenario closely related to meta-analysis, which combines a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-15 Yusi Fang , Chung Chang , George Tseng

Combining p-values from independent statistical tests is a popular approach to meta-analysis, particularly when the data underlying the tests are either no longer available or are difficult to combine. A diverse range of p-value combination…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-15 Nicholas Heard , Patrick Rubin-Delanchy

We study a statistical framework for replicability based on a recently proposed quantitative measure of replication success, the sceptical $p$-value. A recalibration is proposed to obtain exact overall Type-I error control if the effect is…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-10 Charlotte Micheloud , Fadoua Balabdaoui , Leonhard Held

Adaptive clinical trials rely on interim analyses, flexible stopping, and data-dependent design modifications that complicate statistical guarantees when fixed-horizon test statistics are repeatedly inspected or reused after adaptations.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-09 Alexandra Sokolova , Vadim Sokolov

The classical theory for the meta-analysis of $p$-values is based on the assumption that if the overall null hypothesis is true, then all $p$-values used in a chosen combined test statistic are genuine, i.e., are observations from…

Computation · Statistics 2024-10-08 Rui Santos , M. Fátima Brilhante , Sandra Mendonça

Testing effect size homogeneity is an essential part when conducting a meta-analysis. Comparative studies of effect size homogeneity tests in case of binary outcomes are found in the literature, but no test has come out as an absolute…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-11 Osama Almalik

This paper proposes general methods for the problem of multiple testing of a single hypothesis, with a standard goal of combining a number of p-values without making any assumptions about their dependence structure. An old result by…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-09 Vladimir Vovk , Ruodu Wang

Many multiple testing procedures make use of the p-values from the individual pairs of hypothesis tests, and are valid if the p-value statistics are independent and uniformly distributed under the null hypotheses. However, it has recently…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-08-25 Joshua D. Habiger , Edsel A. Pena

This paper presents methods for meta-analysis of $2 \times 2$ tables, both with and without allowing heterogeneity in the treatment effects. Meta-analysis is common in medical research, but most existing methods are unsuited for $2 \times…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-23 Céline Cunen , Nils Lid Hjort

Multivariate meta-analysis is gaining prominence in evidence synthesis research because it enables simultaneous synthesis of multiple correlated outcome data, and random-effects models have generally been used for addressing between-studies…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-14 Hisashi Noma , Kengo Nagashima , Toshi A. Furukawa

Optimal individualized treatment decision-making has improved health outcomes in recent years. The value function is commonly used to evaluate the goodness of an individualized treatment decision rule. Despite recent advances, comparing…

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