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The ``differentiability gap'' presents a primary bottleneck in Earth system deep learning: since models cannot be trained directly on non-differentiable scientific metrics and must rely on smooth proxies (e.g., MSE), they often fail to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Filippo Quarenghi , Ryan Cotsakis , Tom Beucler

We introduce a Bayesian approach to predictive density calibration and combination that accounts for parameter uncertainty and model set incompleteness through the use of random calibration functionals and random combination weights.…

Applications · Statistics 2016-10-26 Federico Bassetti , Roberto Casarin , Francesco Ravazzolo

Data-driven risk analysis involves the inference of probability distributions from measured or simulated data. In the case of a highly reliable system, such as the electricity grid, the amount of relevant data is often exceedingly limited,…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-11 Simon H. Tindemans , Goran Strbac

In this paper we focus on the estimation of mutual information from finite samples $(\mathcal{X}\times\mathcal{Y})$. The main concern with estimations of mutual information is their robustness under the class of transformations for which it…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-02-04 Nicholas Carrara , Jesse Ernst

Estimation of information theoretic quantities such as mutual information and its conditional variant has drawn interest in recent times owing to their multifaceted applications. Newly proposed neural estimators for these quantities have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-24 Arnab Kumar Mondal , Arnab Bhattacharya , Sudipto Mukherjee , Prathosh AP , Sreeram Kannan , Himanshu Asnani

Missing data imputation (MDI) is a fundamental problem in many scientific disciplines. Popular methods for MDI use global statistics computed from the entire data set (e.g., the feature-wise medians), or build predictive models operating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-25 Indro Spinelli , Simone Scardapane , Aurelio Uncini

Bayesian method is capable of capturing real world uncertainties/incompleteness and properly addressing the over-fitting issue faced by deep neural networks. In recent years, Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have drawn tremendous attentions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-11 Xiaotao Jia , Jianlei Yang , Runze Liu , Xueyan Wang , Sorin Dan Cotofana , Weisheng Zhao

Mutual learning is an ensemble training strategy to improve generalization by transferring individual knowledge to each other while simultaneously training multiple models. In this work, we propose an effective mutual learning method for…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-09-10 Wonpyo Park , Wonjae Kim , Kihyun You , Minsu Cho

Brain-Machine Interfacing (BMI) has greatly benefited from adopting machine learning methods for feature learning that require extensive data for training, which are often unavailable from a single dataset. Yet, it is difficult to combine…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-05-27 Jinpei Han , Xiaoxi Wei , A. Aldo Faisal

Meta-learning is a framework in which machine learning models train over a set of datasets in order to produce predictions on new datasets at test time. Probabilistic meta-learning has received an abundance of attention from the research…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-07 Tommy Rochussen

Integrating probability and non-probability samples is increasingly important, yet unknown sampling mechanisms in non-probability sources complicate identification and efficient estimation. We develop semiparametric theory for dual-frame…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-14 Kosuke Morikawa , Jae Kwang Kim

We propose a Bayesian neural network-based continual learning algorithm using Variational Inference, aiming to overcome several drawbacks of existing methods. Specifically, in continual learning scenarios, storing network parameters at each…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-22 Sanchar Palit , Biplab Banerjee , Subhasis Chaudhuri

Deep neural networks(NNs) have achieved impressive performance, often exceed human performance on many computer vision tasks. However, one of the most challenging issues that still remains is that NNs are overconfident in their predictions,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-30 Chanwoo Park , Jae Myung Kim , Seok Hyeon Ha , Jungwoo Lee

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) augment deep networks with uncertainty quantification by Bayesian treatment of the network weights. However, such models face the challenge of Bayesian inference in a high-dimensional and usually…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-30 Zhijie Deng , Yucen Luo , Jun Zhu , Bo Zhang

Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-28 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Tatsuya Kubokawa

We consider adversarial training of deep neural networks through the lens of Bayesian learning, and present a principled framework for adversarial training of Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) with certifiable guarantees. We rely on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-24 Matthew Wicker , Luca Laurenti , Andrea Patane , Zhoutong Chen , Zheng Zhang , Marta Kwiatkowska

This paper proposes a multi-step probabilistic forecasting framework using a single neural-network based model to generate simultaneous point and interval forecasts. Our approach ensures non-crossing prediction intervals (PIs) through a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Worachit Amnuaypongsa , Yotsapat Suparanonrat , Pana Wanitchollakit , Jitkomut Songsiri

High-quality calibrated uncertainty estimates are crucial for numerous real-world applications, especially for deep learning-based deployed ML systems. While Bayesian deep learning techniques allow uncertainty estimation, training them with…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-07-15 Uddeshya Upadhyay , Shyamgopal Karthik , Yanbei Chen , Massimiliano Mancini , Zeynep Akata

Imitation learning (IL) provides a data-driven framework for approximating policies for large-scale combinatorial optimisation problems formulated as sequential decision problems (SDPs), where exact solution methods are computationally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-13 Prakash Gawas , Antoine Legrain , Louis-Martin Rousseau

Distance metric learning is an important component for many tasks, such as statistical classification and content-based image retrieval. Existing approaches for learning distance metrics from pairwise constraints typically suffer from two…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-06-26 Liu Yang , Rong Jin , Rahul Sukthankar