Related papers: Sparsity-Induced Global Matrix Autoregressive Mode…

Certain theoretical aspects of vector autoregression (VAR) as tools to model economic time series are revised, in particular their capacity to include both short term and long term information. The VAR model, in its error correction form,…

Ising models describe the joint probability distribution of a vector of binary feature variables. Typically, not all the variables interact with each other and one is interested in learning the presumably sparse network structure of the…

Our goal is to estimate causal interactions in multivariate time series. Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models, these can be defined based on non-vanishing coefficients belonging to respective time-lagged instances. As in most cases a…

Global trade is shaped by a complex mix of factors beyond supply and demand, including tangible variables like transport costs and tariffs, as well as less quantifiable influences such as political and economic relations. Traditionally,…

We propose a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model for mixed-frequency data. Our model is based on the mean-adjusted parametrization of the VAR and allows for an explicit prior on the 'steady states' (unconditional means) of the…

Vector autoregressions (VARs) are popular model for analyzing multivariate economic time series. However, VARs can be over-parameterized if the numbers of variables and lags are moderately large. Tensor VAR, a recent solution to…

This paper proposes a Vector Autoregression augmented with nonlinear factors that are modeled nonparametrically using regression trees. There are four main advantages of our model. First, modeling potential nonlinearities nonparametrically…

The variance--covariance matrix plays a central role in the inferential theories of high-dimensional factor models in finance and economics. Popular regularization methods of directly exploiting sparsity are not directly applicable to many…

We develop a hierarchical Gaussian process model for forecasting and inference of functional time series data. Unlike existing methods, our approach is especially suited for sparsely or irregularly sampled curves and for curves sampled with…

The statistical analysis of import/export data is helpful to understand the mechanism that determines exchanges in an economic network. The probability of having a commercial relationship between two countries often depends on some…

A Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model is commonly used to model multivariate time series, and there are many penalized methods to handle high dimensionality. However in terms of spatio-temporal data, most methods do not take the spatial and…

The use of learned dynamics models, also known as world models, can improve the sample efficiency of reinforcement learning. Recent work suggests that the underlying causal graphs of such dynamics models are sparsely connected, with each of…

We reinterpret Visual Autoregressive (VAR) models as iterative refinement models to identify which design choices drive their quality-efficiency trade-off. Instead of treating VAR only as next-scale autoregression, we formalise it as a…

Since 2008, the network analysis of financial systems is one of the most important subjects in economics. In this paper, we have used the complexity approach and Random Matrix Theory (RMT) for analyzing the global banking network. By…

The purpose of this paper is to propose a time-varying vector autoregressive model (TV-VAR) for forecasting multivariate time series. The model is casted into a state-space form that allows flexible description and analysis. The volatility…

We introduce a heterogeneous spatiotemporal GARCH model for geostatistical data or processes on networks, e.g., for modelling and predicting financial return volatility across firms in a latent spatial framework. The model combines…

In multivariate statistics, the question of finding direct interactions can be formulated as a problem of network inference - or network reconstruction - for which the Gaussian graphical model (GGM) provides a canonical framework.…

A method of `network filtering' has been proposed recently to detect the effects of certain external perturbations on the interacting members in a network. However, with large networks, the goal of detection seems a priori difficult to…

Panel vector auto-regressive (VAR) models are widely used to capture the dynamics of multivariate time series across different subpopulations, where each subpopulation shares a common set of variables. In this work, we propose a panel VAR…

We revisit macroeconomic time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs), whose persistent coefficients may adapt too slowly to large, abrupt shifts such as those during major crises. We explore the performance of an…