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Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-08 Dennis Ulmer , Christian Hardmeier , Jes Frellsen

There is a significant need for principled uncertainty reasoning in machine learning systems as they are increasingly deployed in safety-critical domains. A new approach with uncertainty-aware regression-based neural networks (NNs), based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-21 Nis Meinert , Jakob Gawlikowski , Alexander Lavin

Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) has emerged as an efficient, sampling-free strategy for uncertainty estimation. A series of EDL variants have been proposed to address specific limitations of the original framework, achieving notable success.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Yuanye Liu , Yibo Gao , Yuanyang Chen , Xiahai Zhuang

Real-world sensor-based learning systems require uncertainty estimation that is both reliable and computationally efficient. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) provides single-pass uncertainty estimation by modeling the class probabilities via…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Berk Hayta , Hannah Laus , Simon Mittermaier , Felix Krahmer

Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) is a popular framework for uncertainty-aware classification that models predictive uncertainty via Dirichlet distributions parameterized by neural networks. Despite its popularity, its theoretical foundations…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-03 Pietro Carlotti , Nevena Gligić , Arya Farahi

Evidential deep learning (EDL) has shown remarkable success in uncertainty estimation. However, there is still room for improvement, particularly in out-of-distribution (OOD) detection and classification tasks. The limited OOD detection…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Taeseong Yoon , Heeyoung Kim

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been shown to perform well on exclusive, multi-class classification tasks. However, when different classes have similar visual features, it becomes challenging for human annotators to differentiate them.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-04-18 Changbin Li , Kangshuo Li , Yuzhe Ou , Lance M. Kaplan , Audun Jøsang , Jin-Hee Cho , Dong Hyun Jeong , Feng Chen

Uncertainty quantification has become an important factor in understanding the data representations produced by Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). Despite their predictive capabilities being ever useful across industrial workspaces, the inherent…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Tommy Woodley , Shireen Kudukkil Manchingal , Matteo Tolloso , Davide Bacciu , Fabio Cuzzolin

In terms of accuracy, deep learning (DL) models have had considerable success in classification problems for medical imaging applications. However, it is well-known that the outputs of such models, which typically utilise the SoftMax…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-02-28 Tareen Dawood , Emily Chan , Reza Razavi , Andrew P. King , Esther Puyol-Anton

We present the fundamental theory and implementation guidelines underlying Evidential Physics-Informed Neural Network (E-PINN) -- a novel class of uncertainty-aware PINN. It leverages the marginal distribution loss function of evidential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-09 Hai Siong Tan , Kuancheng Wang , Rafe McBeth

While Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) achieve remarkable performance, their tendency to produce overconfident predictions. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) mitigates this by formulating predictions as a Dirichlet distribution over class…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Jiawei Tang , Xinyan Du , Hui Liu , Junhui Hou , Yuheng Jia

Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is critical for understanding factors that drive weather and climate outcomes. Ensembles provide predictive uncertainty estimates and can be decomposed physically, but both physics and machine…

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are powerful machine learning prediction models on graph-structured data. However, GNNs lack rigorous uncertainty estimates, limiting their reliable deployment in settings where the cost of errors is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-01 Kexin Huang , Ying Jin , Emmanuel Candès , Jure Leskovec

Reliability of deep learning models is critical for deployment in high-stakes applications, where out-of-distribution or adversarial inputs may lead to detrimental outcomes. Evidential Deep Learning, an efficient paradigm for uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Charmaine Barker , Daniel Bethell , Simos Gerasimou

Evidential deep learning (EDL) models, based on Subjective Logic, introduce a principled and computationally efficient way to make deterministic neural networks uncertainty-aware. The resulting evidential models can quantify fine-grained…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-01 Deep Shankar Pandey , Hyomin Choi , Qi Yu

Traditional deep neural networks (NNs) have significantly contributed to the state-of-the-art performance in the task of classification under various application domains. However, NNs have not considered inherent uncertainty in data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-05 Yibo Hu , Yuzhe Ou , Xujiang Zhao , Jin-Hee Cho , Feng Chen

Current methods commonly used for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning (DL) models utilize Bayesian methods which are computationally expensive and time-consuming. In this paper, we provide a detailed study of UQ based on…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2025-01-13 Ayush Khot , Xiwei Wang , Avik Roy , Volodymyr Kindratenko , Mark S. Neubauer

Uncertainty quantification of deep neural networks has become an active field of research and plays a crucial role in various downstream tasks such as active learning. Recent advances in evidential deep learning shed light on the direct…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-21 Ruxiao Duan , Brian Caffo , Harrison X. Bai , Haris I. Sair , Craig Jones

In this work, we examine the effectiveness of an uncertainty quantification framework known as Evidential Deep Learning applied in the context of biomedical image segmentation. This class of models involves assigning Dirichlet distributions…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-04-24 Hai Siong Tan , Kuancheng Wang , Rafe Mcbeth

We present a novel statistical approach to incorporating uncertainty awareness in model-free distributional reinforcement learning involving quantile regression-based deep Q networks. The proposed algorithm, $\textit{Calibrated Evidential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Alex Christopher Stutts , Danilo Erricolo , Theja Tulabandhula , Amit Ranjan Trivedi