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Machine-learning models are increasingly driving decisions in high-stakes settings, such as finance, law, and hiring, thus, highlighting the need for transparency. However, the key challenge is to balance transparency -- clarifying `why' a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-29 Sopam Dasgupta , Sadaf MD Halim , Joaquín Arias , Elmer Salazar , Gopal Gupta

Counterfactual explanation is a form of interpretable machine learning that generates perturbations on a sample to achieve the desired outcome. The generated samples can act as instructions to guide end users on how to observe the desired…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-28 Tri Dung Duong , Qian Li , Guandong Xu

Counterfactuals, or modified inputs that lead to a different outcome, are an important tool for understanding the logic used by machine learning classifiers and how to change an undesirable classification. Even if a counterfactual changes a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-21 Jesse Friedbaum , Sudarshan Adiga , Ravi Tandon

We study combinations of risk measures under no restrictive assumption on the set of alternatives. We develop and discuss results regarding the preservation of properties and acceptance sets for the combinations of risk measures. One of the…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-05-09 Marcelo Brutti Righi

To increase the adoption of counterfactual explanations in practice, several criteria that these should adhere to have been put forward in the literature. We propose counterfactual explanations using optimization with constraint learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-15 Donato Maragno , Tabea E. Röber , Ilker Birbil

Counterfactual explanations improve the actionable interpretability of machine learning models by identifying minimal changes required to achieve a desired outcome. However, existing methods often neglect dependencies among features, which…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Szymon Bobek , Łukasz Bałec , Grzegorz J. Nalepa

Post-hoc interpretability approaches have been proven to be powerful tools to generate explanations for the predictions made by a trained black-box model. However, they create the risk of having explanations that are a result of some…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-14 Thibault Laugel , Marie-Jeanne Lesot , Christophe Marsala , Xavier Renard , Marcin Detyniecki

The widespread deployment of machine learning systems in critical real-world decision-making applications has highlighted the urgent need for counterfactual explainability methods that operate effectively. Global counterfactual…

Counterfactual explanations (CFs) provide human-interpretable insights into model's predictions by identifying minimal changes to input features that would alter the model's output. However, existing methods struggle to generate multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-20 Oleksii Furman , Patryk Marszałek , Jan Masłowski , Piotr Gaiński , Maciej Zięba , Marek Śmieja

We introduce new inference procedures for counterfactual and synthetic control methods for policy evaluation. We recast the causal inference problem as a counterfactual prediction and a structural breaks testing problem. This allows us to…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-01-26 Victor Chernozhukov , Kaspar Wüthrich , Yinchu Zhu

To date, there has been no formal study of the statistical cost of interpretability in machine learning. As such, the discourse around potential trade-offs is often informal and misconceptions abound. In this work, we aim to initiate a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-29 Gintare Karolina Dziugaite , Shai Ben-David , Daniel M. Roy

In this paper, we present a new explainability formalism designed to shed light on how each input variable of a test set impacts the predictions of machine learning models. Hence, we propose a group explainability formalism for trained…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-12 François Bachoc , Fabrice Gamboa , Max Halford , Jean-Michel Loubes , Laurent Risser

Counterfactual data augmentation has recently emerged as a method to mitigate confounding biases in the training data. These biases, such as spurious correlations, arise due to various observed and unobserved confounding variables in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-22 Abbavaram Gowtham Reddy , Saketh Bachu , Saloni Dash , Charchit Sharma , Amit Sharma , Vineeth N Balasubramanian

Many researchers have applied classical statistical decision theory to evaluate treatment choices and learn optimal policies. However, because this framework is based solely on realized outcomes under chosen decisions and ignores…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-21 Benedikt Koch , Kosuke Imai

Counterfactual (CF) explanations, also known as contrastive explanations and algorithmic recourses, are popular for explaining machine learning models in high-stakes domains. For a subject that receives a negative model prediction (e.g.,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-20 Yilun Zhou

We propose an importance sampling method for tractable and efficient estimation of counterfactual expressions in general settings, named Exogenous Matching. By minimizing a common upper bound of counterfactual estimators, we transform the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-14 Yikang Chen , Dehui Du , Lili Tian

Neural network-based Marked Temporal Point Process (MTPP) models have been widely adopted to model event sequences in high-stakes applications, raising concerns about the trustworthiness of outputs from these models. This study focuses on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-19 Sishun Liu , Ke Deng , Xiuzhen Zhang , Yan Wang

Counterfactual explanations have become a mainstay of the XAI field. This particularly intuitive statement allows the user to understand what small but necessary changes would have to be made to a given situation in order to change a model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-26 Victor Guyomard , Françoise Fessant , Thomas Guyet , Tassadit Bouadi , Alexandre Termier

We examine counterfactual explanations for explaining the decisions made by model-based AI systems. The counterfactual approach we consider defines an explanation as a set of the system's data inputs that causally drives the decision (i.e.,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-14 Carlos Fernández-Loría , Foster Provost , Xintian Han

Counterfactual prediction methods are required when a model will be deployed in a setting where treatment policies differ from the setting where the model was developed, or when a model provides predictions under hypothetical interventions…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-13 Christopher B. Boyer , Issa J. Dahabreh , Jon A. Steingrimsson