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We propose a new variational inference algorithm for learning in Gaussian Process State-Space Models (GPSSMs). Our algorithm enables learning of unstable and partially observable systems, where previous algorithms fail. Our main algorithmic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-11 Silvan Melchior , Sebastian Curi , Felix Berkenkamp , Andreas Krause

Modern neural network architectures have achieved remarkable accuracies but remain highly dependent on their training data, often lacking interpretability in their learned mappings. While effective on large datasets, they tend to overfit on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Pavia Bera , Sanjukta Bhanja

Bayesian neural network posterior distributions have a great number of modes that correspond to the same network function. The abundance of such modes can make it difficult for approximate inference methods to do their job. Recent work has…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-03 Tommy Rochussen

This work deals with uncertainty quantification for a generic input distribution to some resource-intensive simulation, e.g., requiring the solution of a partial differential equation. While efficient numerical methods exist to compute…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-16 Oliver G. Ernst , Hanno Gottschalk , Toni Kowalewitz , Patrick Krüger

Inference for GP models with non-Gaussian noises is computationally expensive when dealing with large datasets. Many recent inference methods approximate the posterior distribution with a simpler distribution defined on a small number of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-09-11 Linfeng Liu , Liping Liu

Neural likelihood estimation methods for simulation-based inference can suffer from performance degradation when the modeled data is very high-dimensional or lies along a lower-dimensional manifold, which is due to the inability of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-12 Simon Dirmeier , Carlo Albert , Fernando Perez-Cruz

We propose Diffusion Model Variational Inference (DMVI), a novel method for automated approximate inference in probabilistic programming languages (PPLs). DMVI utilizes diffusion models as variational approximations to the true posterior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-23 Simon Dirmeier , Fernando Perez-Cruz

Variational inference (VI) provides fast approximations of a Bayesian posterior in part because it formulates posterior approximation as an optimization problem: to find the closest distribution to the exact posterior over some family of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-03-03 Fangjian Guo , Xiangyu Wang , Kai Fan , Tamara Broderick , David B. Dunson

Stochastic Natural Gradient Variational Inference (NGVI) is a widely used method for approximating posterior distribution in probabilistic models. Despite its empirical success and foundational role in variational inference, its theoretical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Fangyuan Sun , Ilyas Fatkhullin , Niao He

Stochastic variational inference (SVI) lets us scale up Bayesian computation to massive data. It uses stochastic optimization to fit a variational distribution, following easy-to-compute noisy natural gradients. As with most traditional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-19 Stephan Mandt , David Blei

Mixture models are widely used in Bayesian statistics and machine learning, in particular in computational biology, natural language processing and many other fields. Variational inference, a technique for approximating intractable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-08-03 Badr-Eddine Chérief-Abdellatif , Pierre Alquier

Symbolic regression discovers explicit, interpretable equations without assuming a functional form in advance. A Bayesian approach strengthens this through probability distributions over candidate expressions, thus quantifying uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-05 James Butterworth , Gevik Grigorian , Alejandro DiazDelaO

Variational inference (VI) seeks to approximate a target distribution $\pi$ by an element of a tractable family of distributions. Of key interest in statistics and machine learning is Gaussian VI, which approximates $\pi$ by minimizing the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-13 Michael Diao , Krishnakumar Balasubramanian , Sinho Chewi , Adil Salim

Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) provide a robust paradigm for Bayesian deep learning. In DGPs, a set of sparse integration locations called inducing points are selected to approximate the posterior distribution of the model. This is done to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-25 Jian Xu , Delu Zeng , John Paisley

We give a new algorithm for learning mixtures of $k$ Gaussians (with identity covariance in $\mathbb{R}^n$) to TV error $\varepsilon$, with quasi-polynomial ($O(n^{\text{poly\,log}\left(\frac{n+k}{\varepsilon}\right)})$) time and sample…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-05 Khashayar Gatmiry , Jonathan Kelner , Holden Lee

Highly expressive directed latent variable models, such as sigmoid belief networks, are difficult to train on large datasets because exact inference in them is intractable and none of the approximate inference methods that have been applied…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-06-06 Andriy Mnih , Karol Gregor

The proliferation of computing devices has brought about an opportunity to deploy machine learning models on new problem domains using previously inaccessible data. Traditional algorithms for training such models often require data to be…

Making inferences about physical properties of the Universe requires knowledge of the data likelihood. A Gaussian distribution is commonly assumed for the uncertainties with a covariance matrix estimated from a set of simulations. The noise…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-07-09 Jed Homer , Oliver Friedrich , Daniel Gruen

As the large amount of sequencing data accumulated in past decades and it is still accumulating, we need to handle the more and more sequencing data. As the fast development of the computing technologies, we now can handle a large amount of…

Other Quantitative Biology · Quantitative Biology 2021-01-05 Songting Shi

The recognition network in deep latent variable models such as variational autoencoders (VAEs) relies on amortized inference for efficient posterior approximation that can scale up to large datasets. However, this technique has also been…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-28 Rui Shu , Hung H. Bui , Jay Whang , Stefano Ermon