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Related papers: Extremes of structural causal models

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Learning the causal structure that underlies data is a crucial step towards robust real-world decision making. The majority of existing work in causal inference focuses on determining a single directed acyclic graph (DAG) or a Markov…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-15 Yashas Annadani , Jonas Rothfuss , Alexandre Lacoste , Nino Scherrer , Anirudh Goyal , Yoshua Bengio , Stefan Bauer

The ultimate goal of most scientific studies is to understand the underlying causal mechanism between the involved variables. Structural causal models (SCMs) are widely used to represent such causal mechanisms. Given an SCM, causal queries…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-21 Beate Sick , Oliver Dürr

Let $\mathbf{X}(n) \in \mathbb{R}^d$ be a sequence of random vectors, where $n\in\mathbb{N}$ and $d = d(n)$. Under certain weakly dependence conditions, we prove that the distribution of the maximal component of $\mathbf{X}$ and the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-22 Mikhail Isaev , Igor Rodionov , Rui-Ray Zhang , Maksim Zhukovskii

We present a new framework for modelling multivariate extremes, based on an angular-radial representation of the probability density function. Under this representation, the problem of modelling multivariate extremes is transformed to that…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-13 Ed Mackay , Philip Jonathan

Extreme values geostatistics make it possible to model the asymptotic behaviors of random phenomena which depends on space or time parameters. In this paper, we propose new models of the extremal coefficient within a spatial stationary…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-05 Ouoba Fabrice , Diakarya Barro , Hay Yoba Talkibing

We consider the task of counterfactual estimation from observational imaging data given a known causal structure. In particular, quantifying the causal effect of interventions for high-dimensional data with neural networks remains an open…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-22 Pedro Sanchez , Sotirios A. Tsaftaris

Dynamic structural causal models (SCMs) are a powerful framework for reasoning in dynamic systems about direct effects which measure how a change in one variable affects another variable while holding all other variables constant. The…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-02-16 Simon Ferreira , Charles K. Assaad

Statistical modeling of high dimensional extremes remains challenging and has generally been limited to moderate dimensions. Understanding structural relationships among variables at their extreme levels is crucial both for constructing…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-01 Mihyun Kim , Jeongjin Lee

We study four different approaches to model time-dependent extremal behavior: dynamics introduced by (a) a state-space model (SSM), (b) a shot-noise-type process with GPD marginals, (c) a copula-based autoregressive model with GPD…

Applications · Statistics 2016-03-01 Bernhard Spangl , Sascha Desmettre , Peter Ruckdeschel

Extreme environmental events such as severe storms, drought, heat waves, flash floods, and abrupt species collapse have become more prevalent in the earth-atmosphere dynamic system in recent years. In order to fully understand the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 Myungsoo Yoo , Likun Zhang , Christopher K. Wikle , Thomas Opitz

One of the basic aims in science is to unravel the chain of cause and effect of particular systems. Especially for large systems this can be a daunting task. Detailed interventional and randomized data sampling approaches can be used to…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-30 Seyed Mahdi Mahmoudi , Ernst Wit

Neural networks are hypothesized to implement interpretable causal mechanisms, yet verifying this requires finding a causal abstraction -- a simpler, high-level Structural Causal Model (SCM) faithful to the network under interventions.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Amir Asiaee

Causal discovery from observational and interventional data is challenging due to limited data and non-identifiability: factors that introduce uncertainty in estimating the underlying structural causal model (SCM). Selecting experiments…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-24 Panagiotis Tigas , Yashas Annadani , Andrew Jesson , Bernhard Schölkopf , Yarin Gal , Stefan Bauer

Three distinct phenomena complicate statistical causal analysis: latent common causes, causal cycles, and latent selection. Foundational works on Structural Causal Models (SCMs), e.g., Bongers et al. (2021, Ann. Stat., 49(5): 2885-2915),…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-23 Leihao Chen , Onno Zoeter , Joris M. Mooij

Data derived from remote sensing or numerical simulations often have a regular gridded structure and are large in volume, making it challenging to find accurate spatial models that can fill in missing grid cells or simulate the process…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-07 Sweta Rai , Douglas W. Nychka , Soutir Bandyopadhyay

Many environmental processes exhibit weakening spatial dependence as events become more extreme. Well-known limiting models, such as max-stable or generalized Pareto processes, cannot capture this, which can lead to a preference for models…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-06 Raphaël G. Huser , Jennifer L. Wadsworth

The analysis of spatial extremes requires the joint modeling of a spatial process at a large number of stations and max-stable processes have been developed as a class of stochastic processes suitable for studying spatial extremes. Spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-09-28 Soyoung Jeon , Richard L. Smith

Extreme events occur across the natural, engineering, and socioeconomic sciences, where rare but high-impact episodes can lead to disproportionate consequences that pose major challenges for prediction and risk management. Existing studies…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-05-22 Charlotte Moser , Nan Chen , Marios Andreou

Here we introduce Partially Observed Structural Causal Models (POSCMs) that formalize causal systems where latent contexts co-determine both the interaction structure and downstream mechanisms on observed variables. POSCMs provide an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-06 Turan Orujlu , Jordan Matelsky , Martin V. Butz , Charley M. Wu , Konrad P. Kording

Extreme events are a major concern in statistical modeling. Ran\-dom missing data can constitute a problem when modeling such rare events. Imputation is crucial in these situations and therefore models that describe different imputation…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-10 Helena Ferreira , Ana Paula Martins , Maria da Graça Temido