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Although linear regression models are fundamental tools in statistical science, the estimation results can be sensitive to outliers. While several robust methods have been proposed in frequentist frameworks, statistical inference is not…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-15 Shintaro Hashimoto , Shonosuke Sugasawa

We show how to speed up Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) for Bayesian inference in large data problems by data subsampling. SMC sequentially updates a cloud of particles through a sequence of distributions, beginning with a distribution that is…

Computation · Statistics 2020-03-25 David Gunawan , Khue-Dung Dang , Matias Quiroz , Robert Kohn , Minh-Ngoc Tran

Mixed-frequency data, where variables are observed at different temporal resolutions, commonly occur in economic and financial studies. Classical synthetic control methods (SCM) are ill-suited for such data, often necessitating aggregation…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-13 Lu Zhang , Shijin Gong , Xinyu Zhang

The dramatic increase of autonomous systems subject to variable environments has given rise to the pressing need to consider risk in both the synthesis and verification of policies for these systems. This paper aims to address a few…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-04-22 Prithvi Akella , Anushri Dixit , Mohamadreza Ahmadi , Joel W. Burdick , Aaron D. Ames

Gene-environment (G$\times$E) interactions have important implications to elucidate the etiology of complex diseases beyond the main genetic and environmental effects. Outliers and data contamination in disease phenotypes of G$\times$E…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-11 Jie Ren , Fei Zhou , Xiaoxi Li , Shuangge Ma , Yu Jiang , Cen Wu

The synthetic control method (SCM) is widely used for constructing the counterfactual of a treated unit based on data from control units in a donor pool. Allowing the donor pool contains more control units than time periods, we propose a…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-19 Chengwang Liao , Zhentao Shi , Yapeng Zheng

High-dimensional and complex discrete distributions often exhibit multimodal behavior due to inherent discontinuities, posing significant challenges for sampling. Gradient-based discrete samplers, while effective, frequently become trapped…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Pinaki Mohanty , Ruqi Zhang

Advances in sensing technology have made it possible to collect large volumes of high-dimensional time-series data. In fields like genetics and neuroscience, key questions concern whether directed relationships between variables can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-08 Sarah E. Heaps , Ian H. Jermyn , Yujiang Wang , Darren J. Wilkinson

The Bayesian paradigm offers principled tools for sequential decision-making under uncertainty, but its reliance on a probabilistic model for all parameters can hinder the incorporation of complex structural constraints. We introduce a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-09 Kaizheng Wang

As an alternative to variable selection or shrinkage in high dimensional regression, we propose to randomly compress the predictors prior to analysis. This dramatically reduces storage and computational bottlenecks, performing well when the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-03-26 Rajarshi Guhaniyogi , David B. Dunson

Federated learning performed by a decentralized networks of agents is becoming increasingly important with the prevalence of embedded software on autonomous devices. Bayesian approaches to learning benefit from offering more information as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-16 Vyacheslav Kungurtsev , Adam Cobb , Tara Javidi , Brian Jalaian

This work introduces a Bayesian methodology for fitting large discrete graphical models with spike-and-slab priors to encode sparsity. We consider a quasi-likelihood approach that enables node-wise parallel computation resulting in reduced…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-21 Anwesha Bhattacharyya , Yves Atchade

Time-varying optimization is fundamental to decision-making in dynamic environments, where objectives evolve over time due to exogenous signals or data streams. However, algorithms designed for static problems yield suboptimal decisions in…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-14 Bryan Van Scoy , Gianluca Bianchin

Dynamic Bayesian predictive synthesis is a formal approach to coherently synthesizing multiple predictive distributions into a single distribution. In sequential analysis, the computation of the synthesized predictive distribution has…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-31 Riku Masuda , Kaoru Irie

This article addresses the problem of efficient Bayesian inference in dynamic systems using particle methods and makes a number of contributions. First, we develop a correlated pseudo-marginal (CPM) approach for Bayesian inference in state…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-22 P. Choppala , D. Gunawan , J. Chen , M. -N. Tran , R. Kohn

Predictions for physical systems often rely upon knowledge acquired from ensembles of entities, e.g., ensembles of cells in biological sciences. For qualitative and quantitative analysis, these ensembles are simulated with parametric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-28 Timothy Rumbell , Jaimit Parikh , James Kozloski , Viatcheslav Gurev

Many AI synthesis problems such as planning or scheduling may be modelized as constraint satisfaction problems (CSP). A CSP is typically defined as the problem of finding any consistent labeling for a fixed set of variables satisfying all…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-25 Thomas Schiex

High-dimensional data sets have become ubiquitous in the past few decades, often with many more covariates than observations. In the frequentist setting, penalized likelihood methods are the most popular approach for variable selection and…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-14 Ray Bai , Veronika Rockova , Edward I. George

Asynchronous Bayesian optimization is a recently implemented technique that allows for parallel operation of experimental systems and disjointed workflows. Contrasting with serial Bayesian optimization which individually selects experiments…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-23 Amanda A. Volk , Kristofer G. Reyes , Jeffrey G. Ethier , Luke A. Baldwin

Motivated by a rheumatoid arthritis clinical trial, we propose a new Bayesian method called SPx, standing for synthetic prior with covariates, to borrow information from historical trials to reduce the control group size in a new trial. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-01 Daniel E. Schwartz , Yuan Ji , Li Wang