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We describe an approach to improving model fitting and model generalization that considers the entropy of distributions of modelling residuals. We use simple simulations to demonstrate the observational signatures of overfitting on ordered…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-05 Barnaby Rowe

This paper introduces an algorithm-agnostic approach to feature-based time series clustering via amortized neural inference. By training neural networks to approximate the optimal partitioning rule from simulated data, the proposed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-14 Ángel López-Oriona , Ying Sun

Process discovery algorithms automatically extract process models from event logs, but high variability often results in complex and hard-to-understand models. To mitigate this issue, trace clustering techniques group process executions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-11 Jari Peeperkorn , Johannes De Smedt , Jochen De Weerdt

The decisions traders make to buy or sell an asset depend on various analyses, with expertise required to identify patterns that can be exploited for profit. In this paper we identify novel features extracted from emergent and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-09 Gabriel Rodrigues Palma , Mariusz Skoczeń , Phil Maguire

Graph based entropy, an index of the diversity of events in their distribution to parts of a co-occurrence graph, is proposed for detecting signs of structural changes in the data that are informative in explaining latent dynamics of…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2019-05-03 Yukio Ohsawa

There are inefficiencies in financial markets, with unexploited patterns in price, volume, and cross-sectional relationships. While many approaches use large-scale transformers, we take a domain-focused path: feed-forward and recurrent…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-15 Sid Ghatak , Arman Khaledian , Navid Parvini , Nariman Khaledian

Statistical model checking avoids the exponential growth of states associated with probabilistic model checking by estimating properties from multiple executions of a system and by giving results within confidence bounds. Rare properties…

Performance · Computer Science 2012-01-26 Cyrille Jégourel , Axel Legay , Sean Sedwards

Data quality is crucial for the successful training, generalization and performance of machine learning models. We propose to measure the quality of a subset concerning the dataset it represents, using topological data analysis techniques.…

Algebraic Topology · Mathematics 2024-10-01 Álvaro Torras-Casas , Eduardo Paluzo-Hidalgo , Rocio Gonzalez-Diaz

Entropy metrics (for example, permutation entropy) are nonlinear measures of irregularity in time series (one-dimensional data). Some of these entropy metrics can be generalised to data on periodic structures such as a grid or lattice…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2021-10-22 John Stewart Fabila-Carrasco , Chao Tan , Javier Escudero

We investigate machine learning based on clustering techniques that are suitable for the detection of encoded strings of q-ary symbols transmitted over a noisy channel with partially unknown characteristics. We consider the detection of the…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2018-12-24 Kees A. Schouhamer Immink , Kui Cai

This study introduces a predictive maintenance strategy for high pressure industrial compressors using sensor data and features derived from unsupervised clustering integrated into classification models. The goal is to enhance model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-22 Alessandro Costa , Emilio Mastriani , Federico Incardona , Kevin Munari , Sebastiano Spinello

A novel heuristic approach is proposed here for time series data analysis, dubbed Generalized weighted permutation entropy, which amalgamates and generalizes beyond their original scope two well established data analysis methods:…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-10-19 Darko Stosic , Dusan Stosic , Tatijana Stosic , Borko Stosic

The existence of forbidden patterns, i.e., certain missing sequences in a given time series, is a recently proposed instrument of potential application in the study of time series. Forbidden patterns are related to the permutation entropy,…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2009-11-13 Massimiliano Zanin

Navigating the intricate landscape of financial markets requires adept forecasting of stock price movements. This paper delves into the potential of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks for predicting stock dynamics, with a focus on…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2024-03-29 Nisarg Patel , Harmit Shah , Kishan Mewada

Financial markets are nonlinear with complexity, where different types of assets are traded between buyers and sellers, each having a view to maximize their Return on Investment (ROI). Forecasting market trends is a challenging task since…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2024-11-22 Sahand Hassanizorgabad

The growing study of time series, especially those related to nonlinear systems, has challenged the methodologies to characterize and classify dynamical structures of a signal. Here we conceive a new diagnostic tool for time series based on…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2017-07-05 G. Corso , T. L. Prado , G. Z. dos S. Lima , S. R. Lopes

We present a simple comparative framework for testing and developing uncertainty modeling in uncertain marching cubes implementations. The selection of a model to represent the probability distribution of uncertain values directly…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-09-16 Robert Sisneros , Tushar M. Athawale , David Pugmire , Kenneth Moreland

Financial markets exhibit an apparent paradox: while directional price movements remain largely unpredictable--consistent with weak-form efficiency--the magnitude of price changes displays systematic structure. Here we demonstrate that…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-19 Mainak Singha

Attention mechanisms have been extensively employed in various applications, including time series modeling, owing to their capacity to capture intricate dependencies; however, their utility is often constrained by quadratic computational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-06 Mingtao Zhang , Guoli Yang , Zhanxing Zhu , Mengzhu Wang , Xiaoying Bai

Identifying market abuse activity from data on investors' trading activity is very challenging both for the data volume and for the low signal to noise ratio. Here we propose two complementary unsupervised machine learning methods to…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-12-13 Piero Mazzarisi , Adele Ravagnani , Paola Deriu , Fabrizio Lillo , Francesca Medda , Antonio Russo